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Brexit

Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/01/2019 14:14

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

OP posts:
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/01/2019 15:30

I'm starting to move away from the idea of a PV too if no deal is an option on it. There are too many kamikaze people around who just want to 'stick it to the elite' (whoever they are)

Hazardswan · 10/01/2019 15:35

Just catching up on news... I see Jeremy is threatening to actually do something again. Can I place a bet on him doing nothing forever? Not that I want a GE right now but if enough grown ups work in HC perhaps a one off cross party working agreement will do until this shite is over.

Can it ever be over? It's like groundhog day. TM brexit means brexit, JC working people jobs brexit and threatening a NC, failing NHS, poverty increasing, rinse and fecking repeat.

BiglyBadgers · 10/01/2019 15:53

I just can't manage to share this confidence that parliament will not end up giving us no deal by default. Unless they come up with something else we will fall into no deal however many amendments they pass expressing their opposition to it. I still feel that there are just too many MPs in denial on both sides to get the WA through. Assuming May doesn't lose her nerve and not put it to a vote at all.

I also think a GE would be even more terrifying and have even worse potential consequences than a PV. The chances of getting an even more rightwing government and greater representation of extreme ends of the spectrum is just too high during this time of mass confusion and dissatisfaction. We could end up in a much, much worse situation than we are in now.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 15:54

Lot of bluster over Bercows pension ... but unless I am missing a trick, the only way that could happen is by a vote ... in the HoC. And i can't see the more decent Tories voting for such a spiteful move. Nor Labour, for that matter, if the next Speaker is a Labour MP (as custom demands).

Tonsilss · 10/01/2019 15:57

So the absolute best that we can hope for is TM's WA then. Terrific.
And then the joy of a Scottish Independence vote. I wouldn't vote for Scottish independence unless the UK was turning into a very very bad place to live. Oh wait...

Butterymuffin · 10/01/2019 15:58

I'd rather take the chance on a second referendum, even with a no deal option. There will still be idiots who want to stick it to the Man. No getting rid of them. But there are also people who've thought again, and younger voters now in the frame. If we get no deal as the choice after that, it'll be the same level of disastrous as if we end up with it by default.

Tonsilss · 10/01/2019 16:01

I can certainly see TM patting herself on the back for having done everything she could do deliver a deal, and then happily allowing a No Deal. Especially if her DH would benefit from it financially (does anyone know?). She could then blame everyone else.
If Labour vote against the WA, then they will share the blame for No Deal. It's what Corbyn wants, so he should certainly take a large part of the blame.

Hazardswan · 10/01/2019 16:07

Tbf it's cross over day this month, if everyone voted the same remain would win because more leavers have died then remainers and just 18'ers prefer remain.

So happy cross over month everyone!

If brexit happens just know that it was the will of a minority of people at this time but at some point in history it was the will of a small, lied to, majority. Comforting init?

So comforting...

Lovely.

Like having a nice cup of tea then spilling it all over yourself type of lovely comforting.

Comforting means comforting.

I need an intervention

Mrsr8 · 10/01/2019 16:08

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

bellinisurge · 10/01/2019 16:10

My dead mother voted Remain before she died. Is she a fucking statistic as well?

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 16:10

I find it odd so many people are placing their faith in a second referendum after the first one went so badly. It's a tad like an eye surgeon carrying on with a procedure in the other eye, having blinded the first.

What I do see is that the dangling idea of a PV is halving the amount of effort that is being directed against Brexit, which suggests it's doing a lot of the heavy lifting for headbanging Brexiteers.

The only pressure - from all sides, is that MPs -who up until now have been happy to hoover up money, privilege, and goodness-knows-what-else, actually start doing the job they are being fuicking paid for.

Anything else is letting them off the hook. And regardless of the conduct of any side in the 2016 referendum, ultimately it only happened because MPs voted for it.

Arguably, such a stance is politically neutral - all sides have an interest in sorting this mess out.

(Geordie accent for obscure reference)

But wha' do ahy noo ?

TatianaLarina · 10/01/2019 16:11

Cold Comfort Farm hazard

Ta1kinPeace · 10/01/2019 16:13

Bellini
Crossover month was noted a few months after the vote - when the statistical analysis by age came out.
The lad in the next room to DS at Uni is a solid leave voter so he's just a stat too Grin

TatianaLarina · 10/01/2019 16:14

I agree with you on PV, DG I don’t think two flawed fuckups make a right.

springtimeyet · 10/01/2019 16:14

I would take the chance of a second vote. If people really want to leave when there is a clearer understanding of what that actually looks like then more fool them but it is their right to do so.
DH has agreed that if that happened we would change our temporarily overseas on a wait and see policy to a permanent move.
That does leave our house and pensions as problems to sort.
But just remaining in limbo is very damaging for the UK as offices and jobs are quietly relocated to other EU countries.

BiglyBadgers · 10/01/2019 16:14

I feel a bit like I'm stuck in a bus rolling down a hill towards a cliff edge and 3 out of 5 of the people up front have agreed they definitely don't want to plunge off the edge of the cliff just to see if we can fly, but are now busy arguing about whether we should turn left, right or just put the break on.

It's all very tiresome.

BiglyBadgers · 10/01/2019 16:17

I find it odd so many people are placing their faith in a second referendum the government to act like grownups after the first one last few years went so badly. It's a tad like an eye surgeon carrying on with a procedure in the other eye, having blinded the first.

Apileofballyhoo · 10/01/2019 16:18

Apart from the rise of the Far Right? Personally, I think that is what historians will look at. My feeling is that, I'm 10 years' time, that is the government we will have - and it will be obvious with hindsight.

Agreed, cat.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 16:19

But just remaining in limbo is very damaging for the UK

And, if you can do it long enough, you get to a point where it's pretty much Brexit anyway. A little like tying off a skin tag, and letting it slowly wither.

The UK began withering June 2016, and it looks like it's making Brexit - and a no-deal Brexit at that - inevitable.

I pity the generation of politicians - as yet still learning their times tables - that will have to pick up the pieces.

Apileofballyhoo · 10/01/2019 16:19

BiglyBadgers your description made me laugh though it's not funny really, it's terrible.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 16:20

@BiglyBadgers

Touché ! Grin

Mrsr8 · 10/01/2019 16:21

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

whymewhynow · 10/01/2019 16:21

Well, PV or not, something's got to be sorted out because TM's defeat next week is looking epic

Tom Newton Dunn

@tnewtondunn

Blimey. PM will lose meaningful vote on Tuesday by a majority of 228, research by @BBCPolitics finds. Number of MPs opposing up by 19 since the delay last month. For: 206, Against: 433.

Hazardswan · 10/01/2019 16:22

Sorry bellini it was in the independent a while back Flowers

DGRossetti · 10/01/2019 16:23

Well, PV or not, something's got to be sorted out because TM's defeat next week is looking epic

(broken record)

That vote is not going to happen.