Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

Ignoring the probably confusion about what the public thought "Clean Break" meant at that freak poll,

while only 35% of the public would prefer to leave the EU with no deal, 76% of Tory members would
and they are the only ones May cares about

Mrsr8 😂 🇪🇺🇪🇺

Christ Ted !
(disclaimer, picture taken on my summer holiday in Rome)

One of the things I'm finding hardest about this is the cognitive dissonance - I read this thread, and Brexit Twitter, and it's all so obviously gobsmackingly a shitshow, and then I have conversations in real life with people who don't seem to have a care in the world about it. Or think 'it will all be okay'. Or just aren't thinking about it at all so it doesn't come up in conversation at all, even when they are talking about holidays they're planning, etc. etc. And I want to scream. But can't, because that would be loony. It's not going to disappear as a problem, it clearly is a problem, so when are the majority going to face the problem???

It's not going to disappear as a problem, it clearly is a problem, so when are the majority going to face the problem???
When it actually impacts their day to day lives

as with Climate Change

The 100,000 elderly tory members wont win her a GE and though she cares about her party, the 300+ Tory MPs care very much more about their jobs electorate, who will turn on the Tories for causing this with their incompetence, so she/MPs wont allow it.

I do agree May will try at least once to get her deal through but without changes, she cannot just keep re submitting it, would Bercow even allow it? she'd be a laughing stock, even within her own party, no one likes to be bullied.

I don’t believe May would Revoke now.

Off her own bat I mean, obviously.

The main public campaign against Brexit at the moment is the People’s Vote.

Lots of people think this is not the right direction.

We need a REVOKE & REVERSE campaign. Stop the madness. Take time to think. Jump off the rollercoaster. Just stop!

No I don’t know that Bercwo will allow further votes,

Commons rules state MPs should not be made to vote again on a matter ‘that is substantially the same on which their judgement has already been expressed’.

My Gran used to talk about the phoney war in the 30s, few thought war with Germany would really happen, so soon after the Great War, a war to end all wars, will never happen.... they'll see sense and we'll have a peace treaty.

My Gran also used to say the British never wake up until the last moment.

I don't think the electorate will turn on the Tories until Labour gets itself sorted out. The Tories were in a mess in the 1990s, but, much though I personally detest him, Blair and New Labour did present a new alternative. (Or so it seemed at the time.)

{I do agree May will try at least once to get her deal through but without changes,}
There will not be any changes.

Your gran spoke sense Jas.

The really big problem here is that Tory-leaning centrists are up against a wall with nowhere to go. I'm thinking about my Tory-voting colleagues - all voted remain, none would vote for Corbyn. And while that is true there isn't that much pressure on Tory MPs unless they have very slim majorities or are in constituencies where the LDs are the opposition.

I was just thinking about the phoney war just now jasjas, but when it kicked off properly - it's hard to describe how bad it was for so many millions of people. But of course, some individuals did nicely out of it.

{My Gran also used to say the British never wake up until the last moment.}
Seeing the programme about Nuremburg it was mildly interesting that of the allies, The USA wanted a proper trial (which happened and they were duly sentenced), Russia wanted life imprisonment but Churchill wanted firing squad with no trial.

pensioners would be wise not to be reliant on the state in that situation

Back in the 70s, the sums didn't add up for me and I never believed that my generation would be able to retire with any pension before the age of 70. I know it's currently 67 but with a No Deal Brexit, I'm beginning to think I should have taken out a very long term bet on being correct about the State Pension age...

Labour faces ‘mass challenge’ over Brexit policy’

Thousands of Labour members have demanded their party oppose Theresa May’s Brexit deal and back a second referendum over EU membership. The call comes before a key party gathering which will be held amid warnings that some are already ending their membership over the issue.

The pressure emerges as the biggest Brexit poll conducted since the referendum suggests support for Labour would fall significantly should it back or allow its MPs to back a Brexit agreement. More than 5,000 Labour members and supporters have contacted the party before its policy meeting of senior figures this week.

Labour’s national policy forum, which includes trade union bosses, senior party officials and shadow cabinet ministers, meets on Wednesday. Officials will offer testimony that local members are quitting over the party’s refusal to oppose Brexit. ...

Activists point to the biggest ever Brexit poll, which shows that Labour’s support would collapse at the next election if it eventually backed a Brexit deal or handed its MPs freedom to vote on such a deal. The YouGov poll of 25,000 voters for the People’s Vote campaign found that Labour’s support would then slump to 26% of the vote – lower than the 27.6% secured by Michael Foot in the party’s disastrous 1983 election. Labour is currently committed to voting against May’s deal, but has stopped short of opposing Brexit under different terms.

Your gran spoke sense Jas

She died in '80 voted to remain, apparently she saw too much poverty and death across two world wars and a depression to risk more mayhem.
My mum used to tell me of her main childhood memory, that of my gran nursing her own incontinent mother in the 30's and the overwhelming stench of the soiled bed sheets being changed, washed on a scrubbing board and wringed out in a mangle, no electricity, no pads, no washing machines and no NHS.
So when people say "no deal! i'm poor! i want change! and it can't get any worse" .......oh yes it can.

and those who claim No Deal can't happen ...

it's reminding me of reading about the German railways and the inevitability of WW1,
which would obviously be a disaster that would wreck the European economies and slaughter their young men
but some old men wouldn't back down

It's a common assumption that no govt would never be so stupid or obstinate as to do X, Y, Z ...

but when you have the former Brexit minister not knowing where our food comes from
and the Transport minister prepping with a freight company that has no ships or trucks
and all the Tories saying "no, no, no" to the backstop
and both parties blathering about renegotiating the WA

.... clearly there is no limit to the stupidity, ignorance and sheer irresponsibility of both the govt and the Official Opposition

No Deal requires them only to do nothing
which may be all that is within their skill set

www.google.co.uk/search?q=father+jack+creche&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari#imgrc=Ul5vdGxv2paK0M:

I’m generally an incorrigible optimist but can sense No Deal becoming more and more of a reality. I have followed these threads from day one and can distinctly remember someone posting a link to an article talking about a ‘train crash’ Brexit which was essentially No Deal. This was at least 2 years ago.
I look forward to going to bed every night because I get 7-8 hours free from Brexit worries. I haven’t started dreaming about it.
Yet.

PCPlumsTruncheon, you mentioned your DB I think on the other thread and how somber he was - can you share any of his concerns or would that be too outing?

chickens He didn’t go into a lot of detail but I am planning on ringing him tomorrow so will ask him. He’a a scientist and has told me many times how leaving the EU will have a devastating effect on research

wherearemychickens i totally agree! Between here and twitter i think we are f*ed bit most people seem more concerned about Anything else. Feel like I'm going a bit mad. I am going to do a bit of prepping now even though exh looks at me like I'm totally bonkers