Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

20 Tory Rebels

Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles (interesting), Ken Clarke, Jonathan Djanogly, Michael Fallon, George Freeman, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Phillip Lee, Oliver Letwin, Nicky Morgan, Robert Neill, Antoinette Sandbach, Nicholas Soames, Anna Soubry, Edward Vaizey and Sarah Wollaston.

I'm sceptical it'll make any difference anyway. Those still clamouring for no deal are apparently all under the illusion we will end up with money trees sprouting from the verges as the magical unicorns of sovereignty gallop overhead so we won't need tax rises anyway. I see it more of an gesture o illustrate opposition put in a way that would be acceptable across parties than any real preventative.

I see that 20 Tories voted for Cooper’s amendment, including Sam Gyimah, Michael Fallon, Oliver Letwin and Nick Soames.
3 Labour voted against: Hoey, Stringer and Campbell.

Gives a little bit of an indication of voting splits?

And three Labour Rebels:
Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Graham Stringer

Plus Independent Lady Hermon voted against the Amendment.

I also think two of the former Labour Members abstained - I can't see a vote from Frank Field nor John Woodcock.

Cross post with Red!
DUP seem to be voting with government tonight.

I think this victory is more symbolic than anything. It’s a sign to May that Parliament will oppose No Deal every step of the way. As Letwin said - he will vote for this amendment and every other in order to stop it.

In a couple of weeks this could potentially be a vote against No Deal itself or even plausibly a vote for Revoke if Parliament is faced with No Deal or nothing.

25 labour mp's did not vote - I suppose that's better than voting against but a defeat by 32 would have put a decent stake in the ground :(

Govt is debating all Brexit petitions on Monday, just before the Meaningful Vote.

The Committee has decided to have a single debate on these petitions because it wanted to ensure they were debated as soon as possible, so they would be less likely to be overtaken by events.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/236261

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
😬😬😬😬😬😬 7 Number 10 aides looking for new jobs says the Londoner’s Diary

When is the best time to leave?

The problem with blocking funding for no deal preparations is that if it isn't stopped and we do crash out remainers will get the blame. It's a get out of jail free card for the idiots who voted for this.

Yes my feeling was that the governments immediate move will be to blame those who voted for the amendment for preventing “essential” preparations.

That is the worry Bollocks. On the other hand I guess they aren't blocking funding, they are just forcing the government to consult with parliament first. When May has a history of avoiding discussion as much as possible it does seem like holding the purse strings might be the only way for parliament to get a look in.

I was really worried about the amendment but the more I think about it the more I think it really is awfully smart.

Lets hope thats not a pyrrhic victory for the opposition, cos that sure as hell looks like an amendment with a potential self harming sting in the tail.

Well, we all know they will blame Remainers - and the EU - for the eventual shitstorm either way. Unfortunately this move may well have made it easier to sell Blame Remain to the general public. I have a horrible vision of the ERG rubbing it’s collective hands together in glee.

Desperately hope this is not the case.

Cross post with Bollocks, Bigly and Malice.

Which sounds like a comedy firm of solicitors...

The problem with blocking funding for no deal preparations is that if it isn't stopped and we do crash out remainers will get the blame. It's a get out of jail free card for the idiots who voted for this

I'd suggest the opposite, the more it is blatantly apparent that no deal is a disaster, the less excuses the Gov can come up with for allowing a ND.

With the UK in melt down, could any minister on the Marr show etc say "oh we didn't know" and the next question then is "why did you take the UK down this path knowing it would be a disaster and with little room to maneuver?"

The only people to blame will be May and her cabinet and a clever move by Cooper

Sounds like the governments own legal advisors

{Which sounds like a comedy firm of solicitors...}
No, that's Doolittle, Dally and Procrastinate you are thinking of.

Sue, Grabbitt and Runne

I've always thought it is a major potential own goal in the event of No Deal

• for anyone who isn't a convinced Remainer and who isn't well-informed, it would be easy to blame sabotage by remainer MPs

Also, why block tax rises - the country doesn't pay enough tax to finance services adequately anyway - and not block public spending cuts instead / as well

www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-rules-against-mystery-corporation-from-country-a-fighting-subpoena-in-mueller-investigation/2019/01/08/a39b61ac-0d1a-11e9-84fc-d58c33d6c8c7_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.c2d10ded8fd0&__twitter_impression=true
Supreme Court rules against mystery corporation from ‘Country A’ fighting subpoena in Mueller investigation

The Supreme Court on Tuesday left in place a lower court order requiring an unnamed foreign-owned corporation to comply with a subpoena said to be part of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election.

The court dissolved a temporary stay that had been put in place by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. In a short order, it did not give a reason for the decision, nor did it note any dissents.

The entity that is the subject of the cloaked legal battle — known in court papers simply as a “Corporation” from “Country A” — is a foreign financial institution that was issued a subpoena by a grand jury hearing evidence in the special counsel investigation, according to two people familiar with the case.

Keep your eyes open for developments on this.

I have no idea whether in the world this institution is, but I think it will be fascinating to know...

It is however a potentially useful indicator of the opposition to No Deal and hence a signal to the govt

• I hope they add no cutting of spending on public services or benefits to pay for Brexit^ Otherwise, it just helps the better off if No Deal actually happens

Wow, red I can't help thinking of businesses or investment funds led by certain prominent Leavers who I won't name

MPs are totally wasting their time proposing amendments that would restrict or change the ni backstop in any way.

The EU will not agree to that unless the RoI does a 180 degree turn and there is no sign of that - Varadkar would suffer massive domestic fallout if he did.
The expected bad effects on the RoI of No Deal would - deservedly - be placed on Westminster, not him.

Also, talk of extension is almost certainly a waste of time too,
unless for a PV, or after the HoC has passed the WA and just needs more time for the additional legislation required.