Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

These Are The Scenarios In Which The European Union Would Consider Allowing The UK To Extend Article 50

The WA must be signed as it is,
but if the UK drops its line on FOM then the PD (Political direction) for the future arrangement can be changed, in particular to add the words "frictionless trade" to the aims
e.g.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/this-is-how-the-eu-would-allow-the-uk-to-extend-article-500^??^

“There would need to be a clear purpose.
It cannot be for Britain to continue negotiating with itself,”^^
a European diplomat told BuzzFeed News.^
....^
there is no chance of a renegotiation
It is not the EU27’s problem to solve UK parliamentary problems, we all have domestic issues,”
the diplomat went on to say.

“There is no alternative.
But it would be much worse for the UK.”

Logically the amendment calls TMs bluff
if "no deal is better than a bad deal"
then she should not need to worry about raising more taxes
if its not better
then she should block no deal

Rats fleeing the sinking HMS May ?
Sam Coates Times Retweeted Alex Wickham@alexwickham

_ 7 Number 10 aides looking for new jobs_ says the Londoner’s Diary

Ônly works if she's actually bluffing

Most Tory / Brexiter definitions of a "successful" Brexit don't stick to the economics
Most Leave voters seem more concerned with "sovereignty" and keeping out furrin.
Most claim they'd accept an economic hit for that.

The dispute is whether it would be as catastrophic as "experts" like Carney and even the nroths say.

UCL research on effects of small delays at Dover

www.ft.com/content/d05498f6-1299-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

The UCL research was based on the impact of different processing times for outbound journeys using Dover’s existing layout and traffic flows.

It anticipates that extra customs checks of up to 40 seconds per vehicle would have no impact on the queueing time for outward journeys through Dover.

However, that changes dramatically when the additional delays are only slightly longer.

With a further 60 seconds of checks, officials anticipate queues of six to eight hours on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, when traffic is particularly heavy.

If delays reach 70 seconds per truck, a queue of between 1,200 and 2,724 heavy goods vehicles is expected, leading to tailbacks taking six days.
“[The queue] starts Monday evening and ends by Saturday noon,”
according to the analysis.

If the processing time goes up to 80 seconds the result would simply be “no recovery”,* it says.

“‘No recovery’ would mean the whole country is in a traffic jam,”
said one official.

The UCL research was commissioned by the DfT
and would mean that Dover congestion would block traffic from Ramsgate port too !

and of course, UCL was not asked to model the knock-on effects of the expected delays on the other side of the Channel,
where the authorities aren't ready either

• but the E27 are self-sufficient in food and they would still trade with the rest of the world as normal, imports & exports. The UK won't

During the P&O Dock strike in the 80's the docks kept going by hook and by crook.
Then one day a particular driver decided to bring it to a head
so he parked his lorry in the right place, pulled his unit and deliberately dropped the legs wrong so it could not be moved.
Within an hour the whole dock was at gridlock, no boats could load or unload, Jubilee Way ground to a halt, Dover centre ground to a halt
and dear old Pastore wandered off whistling.
P&O started talking to the strikers that afternoon.

If Pastore could do that alone, just think what will happen if drivers are delayed in March.
I assume he's dead now, he was quite a character

Oh FFS
now they are talking about closing half of the M3 to use as a lorry park
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/08/m3-near-portsmouth-may-become-lorry-park-after-no-deal-brexit

The reasons why I have warmed to the amendment are that it doesn't block funding or stop her raising taxes. If she needs to raise taxes for no deal it's simple, she just needs to take it to parliament and put it to a vote saying that we should go for no deal and raise taxes to support that. A planned no deal with funding is still perfectly possible, but she now has to persuade parliament that it is the best option on the table rather than doing it all behind closed doors and then dropping it on us at the last minute. Yes, she can just sit on it and let us drop out but then she can't cover that up by quietly raising taxes and saying how its all absolutely under control.

I agree that it would have been nice to find a way to stop them from using money already given to public services, but that's just not really possible. I can't think of a way that it would be worded that would adequately define what was brexit related and ring fence finances out of that. But even more importantly I can't see Tory MPs going for it as much as they have with the tax thing.

The fact is the Tories already see themselves as a low tax party. They hate raising taxes. So appealing to this aspect of their psyche, I believe made them more likely to vote against May on this. It is also easier to sell to the public. Even people like me who would happily see taxes rise for public services would be pissed off to see them rise for brexit. Hard core brxiteers find it hard to argue against the amendment because by their logic there should be tax reductions surely, thanks to all that extra money we will have.

Sure I would have loved to see something better, and yes it's a PR risk, but as pointed out they are already laying the blame for everything on remainers so I don't think this will make that worse and as a message to and check on the government its possibly about as good as we are likely to get with our form of governance.

At least it's something damn it.

steve hawkes
‏*@steve*_hawkes

EXCL Cabinet Ministers to be told how to apply for emergency funds in case No Deal triggers water shortages, blackouts or “loss of human life”

This is The Sun.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8143296/no-deal-loss-of-human-life-cash/

now they are talking about closing half of the M3 to use as a lorry park

It's often a car park in any case.

@red

I have no idea whether in the world this institution is, but I think it will be fascinating to know...

I am willing to bed a glass of wine it is Deutsche Bank. They had a lot to do with loans to the Orange One and (I believe) were recently sanctioned for money laundering of Russian money...

whole country in a traffic jam

Yeah that's great for emergency services and anyone with a job to get to will be thrilled. I'm sure the army will just use tanks to roll over cars?

Such fun.

There's gotta be a revoke because this is just getting silly. Like really, really, really silly.

hazard I wonder if we could have a Fast-Track Rejoin a few months after No Deal proves Project Reality
I've heard that's the fallback for some prominant Ultra Remainers like Blair

I think once Brexit has happened the vultures will take over and there'll be no turning back.

Me too unfortunately. They’ve snatched victory narrowly and they’re never going to let go whatever consequences are unleashed

Better late than never to park myself here...

I visit relatives on the south coast. Or rather, I avoid visiting as the M3 is so often gridlocked already, as jasjas mentioned. And the M27, come to think of it.

* I wonder if we could have a Fast-Track Rejoin a few months after No Deal proves Project Reality*

And

They’ve snatched victory narrowly and they’re never going to let go whatever consequences are unleashed

Aren't we seeing the dying throes of hubris? It's the start of nemesis which will reach a point when it is so bad that surely an election can then bring about the start of a dramatic reversal? Yes it may take time and yes worse EU terms and more cost, but that then leads to the catharsis ?

Waves to Born ,who I'm imagining sitting on the M3 surrounded by Eddie Stobarts.

Trouble with "rejoin" is that we would probably not have the relatively sweet deal we have now - No Schengen/No Euro. We might be able to stay out of Schengen because the Irish are too and it makes sense we work with them. As for No Euro? Not so sure. Everyone else who joins has to join it . I really don't want that.

I have an emotional response to the £ too. But perhaps losing it is our (very well) deserved collective punishment.

Generally in life, selfishness, failure to be open minded and outward looking,inability for cooperative teamwork etc leads to isolation and poor mental and physical health. There is a price to be paid for recovery. Perhaps that price is loss of the £ not only in value but in existence too.

It's the start of nemesis which will reach a point when it is so bad that surely an election can then bring about the start of a dramatic reversal?

I am very worried about the idea of a GE right now. Looking to America and country after country voting in increasing right wing representatives I can't help but feel in the UK we have the perfect conditions for undesirables to end up sitting in parliament if we have an election now. When everyone is furious and fed up and thinks everyone in parliament are just being shit, when we are sitting on the knife edge of a bloody huge crises, and when we have all sorts of internal and external influences on our politics we still haven't got a handle on is surely the worse possible time for an election. I am genuinely scared that an election will dig us a far, far bigger and dirtier hole than we already have and that's really saying something. Look at trump and tell me things can't be worse.

Either the current parliament needs to sort this out or they need to admit they can't and hand it back to the people for another referendum. Sure we never should have had the first one, but we did and it might just take another to sort it out. Personally I would rather take the risk (reducing risk if you look at the polls) that we still vote leave in a second referendum than we vote for a load of rightwing extremists in a GE. At least then we're no worse off than we are at the moment.

The success of the Cooper amendment supported by actual Churchill's actual grandson, Nicholas Soames, gives me hope that the madness of No Deal can be avoided. Frankly, I can live with anything that isn't no Deal.