Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

I think she does have a conscience, and I think genuinely believes in the guff she spouts about the 'just about managing' etc. Her only problem is that she has a funny way of showing it - invariably voting for actions which hit the poorest hardest.

You think May had a conscience? Because I haven't seen any evidence of it so far.

The clue was in the puff piece I posted Sunday. She's outsourced her conscience to "God" - presumably to ease the burden on her limited intelligence. One of the worst manifestations of religion ... "It's the will of God". Anyone criticising her is merely "testing her faith". Anyone agreeing with here is divinely appointed.

{I keep thinking .. turkeys won’t vote for Xmas. }
To a fair extent the UK already has.
While the government have been trowing the toys around the playroom, the grownups have been gradually taking the industry out of the UK and making new arrangements.
I have been doing my own personal 'damage limitation' and am resigned to having some aspects of my life ruined by the decision to leave.
I would really like to join in a discussion of what and how the UK is going to progress after March 29th, but it seems no one is able to think beyond that.
With industry (manufacturing and financial) on a steep decline following March 29 (based on the fact the government pockets aren't deep enough to bale out everybody) what the hell IS the UK going to do? So far there has been no suggestion apart from a fair risk of a small civil (or uncivil) war.
Even if Revoke were to happen, industry that has moved out, or is poised to move out will not return, they can't afford this exercise twice, and since the UK is demonstrating that it is only luke warm about being IN Europe they will not trust the government not to push for leave again.
So, how about some suggestions of positive things that the UK can do on April 1st.
I suggested a massive medical training programme earlier today. Something the UK was good at, relatively easy to get started with not a great deal of infrastructure necessary.

Wasn't Tony Blair also a fan of outsourcing his conscience to God? I have a vague memory of him saying the Iraq war was all super fine because God wanted him to do it.

If Corbyn changes policy, that would be the game-changer we need.

Unless / until then, May could well decide against Revoke,
because that would let Labour off the hook and also cause a massive row in her own party

He was, Bigly.

Last refuge of the scoundrel, imo.

Sorry, which way does Corbyn have to change? If he came out in favour of revoke, May would go for No Deal for shear stubbornness.

@RedToothBrush
The Daily Mash are watching your thread titles ...
www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/channel-4-brexit-drama-ends-with-bus-precariously-balanced-on-edge-of-cliff-20190108181115

From SKY online
{The Home Office has doubled a charge for migrants to use the NHS, in a move that has been criticised for its impact on NHS workers and young people who have been in the UK since childhood.
The standard Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS) will today double from £200 to £400 a year, a sum the Home Office says will bring much-needed funds to the National Health Service.}
Welcome to the UK (not).

Seems there's been some boot->arse contact somewhere in Trotsky Towers.

from my local Labour party [sic]:

Dear
Rossetti

Many
thanks for your recent email in relation to the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union.

Labour
respects the referendum result and will fight for a Brexit deal that protects jobs, the economy and rights. Tory divisions and incompetence over Brexit are putting jobs and the economy at risk.

After
two years of bungled negotiations, the Government has produced a botched deal that breaches the Prime Minister’s own red lines, does not meet our six tests, and will leave the country in an indefinite halfway house without a real say.

All
the Government has really agreed is a vague outline political declaration which is a substantial dilution of the Prime Minister’s previously declared negotiating priorities and fails to protect trade, jobs and industry, or provide certainty for business.

Labour
does not accept the choice is between Theresa May’s deal and no deal.

Labour
will oppose Theresa May’s botched Brexit deal that puts jobs, rights and people’s livelihoods at risk. The Tories have no right to inflict the chaos that would follow crashing out of the EU without a deal. That is why we will work with all sides in Parliament
to oppose no deal.

If
the Government is unable to negotiate a good deal in the country’s interest, and win a majority in Parliament, the best outcome for the country would be a general election and the opportunity to sweep away this failed Tory Government.

If
a general election were blocked, all options should be kept on the table to break the impasse and avoid a disastrous no deal – including campaigning for a public vote.

Labour
will continue to oppose and will vote against this deal – a bad deal for Britain, a bad deal for our economy, and a bad deal for our democracy.

Thanks
once again for your email.

With
best wishes,

Jacob
Membership
Services and Correspondence
The
Labour Party

'What a load of meaningless and impossible bollocks'.
2/19, must try harder, preferably during 21st century.

But Labour will still go ahead with Brexit .....

I think I've had that response verbatim from my MP, more than once. When she bothers to reply at all.

Is it me or is there a bit of an odd emphasis in the news over the last week or so?

The govt has been fairly focussed on one thing for two years then since Christmas there's been a completely exaggerated fuss. Firstly about less than normal numbers of people in boats. Then there's been a big NHS package announcement and now a little focus on non U.K. born usage of the NHS. These were all underlying referendum issues.I'm confused-What are we being primed for?

Which squirrel??

Is it me or is there a bit of an odd emphasis in the news over the last week or so?

No its not.

It's looks what you could have won with the NHS... Until Remainers screwed that up by not supporting the WA.

And

Looks what we are doing to stop all the bad immigration even though we know that if we wave through lorries and containers at the border because we havent got the time and resources to check them properly we will have something of an issue (illegal immigration via boats is rare and doesn't account for much). Plus Javid gets to willy wave to all the Tory Party membership about how much more important he is than Gavin Williamson and how he's more British than all the white Brits.

The NHS use age thing is also about stopping the imaginery NHS foreign sponges that were talked about at the ref. Just as we prepare to increase 'deserving immigration'. Except since a sizeable amount of this relates to immigration for the nhs is a bit of an own goal.

But yes its all about prepping us to say 'well this is what you wanted at the ref and look how good we are at delivering it, shame about the economy and the food shortages but that's the will of the people'.

Thus abdicating any responsibility for their spectacular incompetence.

peregrin The point about labour supporting Brexit is that polls indicate it would destroy them at the next GE is we Brexit

So no Deal is a win-win for May:
Lose far fewer MPs than with Revoke AND win a landslide GE via FPTP

Whereas if Labour support Remain, the voters can punish the Tories for No Deal
This would make May more reluctant for No Deal

It strikes me that when you want the country to prepare for and accept food and medicine shortages it helps to have something to fear. An Other that is trying to invade is the ideal. The EU itself was fine for complaining about red tape and sovereignty but nobody really sees it as a serious physical threat. It's not an invading army worthy of accepting war time style rations for. The great threat of the immigrant however is a very helpful monster to position as the invading other coming to take our traditions, women and children. Heavens, here they are landing on the beaches in boats! Lock up your daughters!

So we have both a handy dead cat to distract attention and a suitable threat to our way of life to remind people why we have to continue on the path of Brexit and suffer the consequences for our own protection.

These were my thoughts on the boats anyway.

Remember this poster? Worked before, why not try it now things are getting a bit rocky again and people are starting to change their minds.

To clarify:
I mean May would lose only a few MPs quitting the party because of No Deal
vs
the potentially dangerous 50 or so ERG MPs who might join UKIP and suddenly make it a very dangerous rival for the rightwing vote
JRM or Boris would make a lethally effective leader there

May is balancing those dangers against electoral consequences of No Deal
Labour supporting Brexit and losing 20% of their vote means Tories could actually benefit from No Deal

If anyone was wondering why there is such level of poverty in the U.K., look no further.

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/14-mps-turn-up-to-discuss-un-report-on-14-million-people-living-in-poverty/08/01/?fbclid=IwAR3nx3rXqW0WzICq7qPa-AVOlv1cBKghizPuJ92jMqq33TWNZcmuKJgQTVk

14 MPs turn up to discuss UN report on 14 million people living in poverty
And yes that includes labour MPs too.

fear of furrin is one of the few issues that can't be solved easily, without a national lobotomy.

peregrin The point about labour supporting Brexit is that polls indicate it would destroy them at the next GE is we Brexit ...So no Deal is a win-win for May: Lose far fewer MPs than with Revoke AND win a landslide GE via FPTP... Whereas if Labour support Remain, the voters can punish the Tories for No Deal ...This would make May more reluctant for No Deal

All true, but we're still in the quantum state at the moment - the waveform hasn't collapsed. As we should know by now ... the only poll that matters is the ballot box, and there's no sign of the public getting anywhere near one of those anytime soon.

So as far as electoral strategies go, Corbyn could quite happily fart the Red Flag as a policy statement - in the absence of an upcoming election, it's an irrelevance.

However, Labours purported stance does have the happy effect of allowing the Tories to snipe amongst themselves in the full glare of the media.

Of course if there were to be an opportunity to move to either trigger a GE, or failing that a PV, then there's space for Corbyn to simply play the defeated leader and graciously bow to pressure from his party. The MSM would, of course crucify him, but it would be a weird angle of attack, especially as it would probably be against the public mood, should it happen.

I'm not claiming this is the case. But if it were, then it would look exactly like this ...

I think we forget, or underestimate how much the MSM hates Corbyn (especially for wrong footing them in 2017). So pursuing a strategy which "legitimately" allows him silence has a logic to it.

the potentially dangerous 50 or so ERG MPs who might join UKIP and suddenly make it a very dangerous rival for the rightwing vote

Personally I think UKIP is a busted flush (at least FPTP worked as intended there). I'd be curious to know who exactly was frightened by them. My guess is it was always more the Tory and Labour racists that felt threatened than the moderates.

JRM or Boris would make a lethally effective leader there

That might be true, but it's a fantasy. JRM simply cannot be anything other than a Tory, like Boris. I would stake £10 that they would be the last two members of the Tory party after all else had fled.

AdamBienkov
"It is a type of fascism. Let's be clear about that," says Bercow about the thugs abusing politicians and journalists on College Green