Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

@red What do you think of my earlier concern on another issue:

that the polls showing labour would be annhilated in a post-Brexit GE if they support WA or No Deal,
is a game-changer for the Tories too ?

It removes a lot of the pressure on May to avoid No Deal,
if it seems likely that Labour would suffer and - maybe as in 1983 when the left vote split, deliver them a landslide

Before, we talked about the Tories being out of power for a generation if there is No Deal
and May weighing up whether this would be a greater danger to the party than a Tory civil war after Revoke,
which would also keep them out of power for several years.

However, until Corbyn stops supporting Brexit, May could reasonably gamble that her party would be in less danger with No Deal than Revoke.

I'm keen to understand how the Cooper amendment is a trap.
Surely anything which get a legislative measure overriding the legislative default No Deal is a good thing?
However, keen to be schooled on this.

jas No, the EU has repeatedly said ever since the WA was agreed and signed by them, that there is no renegotiating.

That is why serious commentators in Germany & Brussels (& the Norths, Booker here) have rubbished Corbyn's claims that he would renegotiate - and he would have different red lines to May

May's red lines led to this being the only WA she could sign
and time has now run out - along with the EU's patience.

The EU are not willing to extend just to renegotiate.
they'll only agree to extend for a PV, or possibly GE if one party has a clear Revoke or even WA as its policy.

All that is open is to change the PD to allow a quite different future relationship of SM+CU+other stuff,
which Barnier & co originally wanted - hence he may already haev an alternative PD draft locked in the EU Commission safe.

I guess I could say its rather like trying to put out a forest fire with a single bucket of water. Which means the person can be blamed for not succeeding in putting out the fire or could be blamed by others for starting the fire in the first place because they didn't clear up all the leaves before it started.

And yes BigChoc. I think how the left is split is troubling. The only way out is a new party that is formed out of the fire of no deal. I agree that if the left is fragmented all the logic of not voting tory for a generation remains true but whilst the generation that did vote tory still lives and believes the lies about no deal then they would still win.

No deal could have the effect of killing off a lot of older people and vulnerable prematurely though. Which in certain areas would mean big demographic changes.

bellini Stopping some prepping measures for No Deal doesn't stop No Deal:
it just makes it even worse if it happens.

Neither the HoC nor May can stop No Deal except by specifically choosing another A50 action:
either the WA, or Revoke

They can delay by choosing a PV, if the EU agrees (the EU at this late stage might only extend for Remain vs WA)

The EU are not willing to extend just to renegotiate.

Not according to the Express ...

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1068729/Brexit-news-irish-backstop-eu-uk-ireland-brexit-latest-leo-varadkar

red I wonder at the Tory / Labour vote demographics

The 60+ vote very heavily for them, but I wonder if most of the low income pensioners, who would be the most vulnerable and likely to suffer from No Deal, vote Labour

We look at social classes in voting, but we also need to look at income.

The better off now tend to increasingly vote Labour rather than Tory
but so do a lot of the very poorest, not the "aspirational" wc

{The Home Secretary is being lax too - is he waiting for a tragedy ?}

I would say failing on a grand scale. Getting worked up about a handful of cold wet folk attempting to get into the UK while seeming to ignore the conditions in the UK which are getting rapidly out of hand.
Next headline will be the immigrants that are being held asking for their boats back so they can escape the attrocities in UK.

DG Just words.
That agrees exactly with the 40 minute phone call he had recently with Merkel, when they agreed on helping May, but not changing the backstop in any way.

The EU are thought to have lined up a lot of flowery words to help May, once the WA has been voted down the first time.
However, not the "legally binding" watering down of the backstop that the Toeis nd DUp are demanding

The Brexiter leaders and media have been claiming all along that the EU would give in, blink at the last moment,
because cars and "they need us more ..."

unfortunately these delusions which have spread to many Leave voters are why we are in this desperate situation.

Read the papers on this side of the water and they just want it to end on time, preferably revoke, but they'll take the WA.
Everyone wants to avoid No Deal, but not at the cost of more negotiations.

That phone call with merke:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/varadkar-and-merkel-discuss-no-deal-brexit-planning-in-phone-call-1.37468700^

“We agreed that we would stand by the agreement we made with the United Kingdom at the end of last year.

We are happy to offer reassurance and guarantees to the United Kingdom^
but not reassurances and guarantees that contradict or change what was agreed back in November.

We also discussed ‘no deal’ planning.”

Sam Coates Times8@SamCoatesTimes

Business group London First withdraw support from May’s brexit deal and preparing to back second referendum

• London First backed TM deal in November
• Now they say TM so unlikely to pass its pursuit raises chance of no deal

Do any of you think that May is likely to revoke absolutely at the last moment i.e. 22:50 on 29th March, and then immediately tender her resignation, thus causing the Tories to be leaderless at a key moment? Or is this just another little fantasy of mine?

I think she's too pig headed to revoke. That would mean admitting she'd fucked up. She'd have to go first and the next leader would have to do it. Except the ones jostling for position are even worse so that's not likely either.

Sometimes doing something can be worse than doing nothing if the doing something is just crap.

This is often true, but actually most of the problems we have right now are due to people not doing anything and just rolling over.

I think parliamentarians looking for technical ways of tying the government's hands is a good thing. Better to go down trying.

She won't revoke.

I used to put her Revoking as a 10% chance

and mainly because she would want to avoid the the Tories being out of power for a generation

• now it looks like it would be Labour that would be out of powere for years - if Cprbyn keeps supporting Brexit - imo, the chance of her revoking is now only about 5%

(of course, she could be fooling us all and Revoke was always her plan Z, but I don't think so)

I wish I could find it on YouTube ... but from the 80s Ben Elton sketch/stand-up programme ("The Man from Auntie") there was a running gag "on an escalator with ...". One of the escalator victims was "Jive Bunny", to give you an idea.

Anyway, there was a brief - but too true to be funny - skit with Steve Nallon in "On an escalator with ... Margaret Thatcher". The joke being that she was trying to walk up the down escalator and insisting at the top of her voice that it was going the wrong way ...

Excuse me young man, but this escalator should be going down ... as she was forced to walk up it.

It's too perfect for this situation.

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy .
My hope is that they are making it unconscionable for TM do anything other than Revoke or beg for a delay.

Which of all the available options is the least damaging to the Tory party? That IMO is the one she would go for!

I wish you were all not so certain she won’t revoke.
I keep thinking .. turkeys won’t vote for Xmas. I think if the financial amendment and others get past preventing no deal then she will have no alternative but to revoke if her deal is voted down

I am sure it would be wrapped up with “delaying until we can leave again” to pacify Rees-Mogg etc Best thing for the country at the moment etc etc and then yes, resign as she said she would anyway.
We might end up with another Brexiteer leader of course which will be hardly helpful and it won’t please 1tisILeClerc as it would mean the uk vcontinuing to be a thorn in the EU side but at least we won’t go over the cliff yet
"

You think May had a conscience? Because I haven't seen any evidence of it so far.

Sorry that was to bellinisurge's comment about May finding no deal unconscionable. I was so slow I crossed posts with half the board and now it's all out of context.

I don’t think she has a conscience I think it would be least damaging to her party.

To revoke as above