Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

but perhaps it's always been so duplicitous and secretive

No. It's been bad but the public need was generally served as well. Now it's an afterthought at best.

{MPs plan shutdown to prevent No Deal}
Unfortunately isn't this a bit 'sledgehammer to crack a nut' as preparations for leaving ARE necessary so things that will be needed to be in place on March 30th do have to be organised.
No deal crash out is very bad but to scupper things like the provisions for customs and HMRC and all elements around it will mean that it will stuff any transition plans, endangering a 'smooth exit'.

especially about the manipulation of news.

I'm watching old Richard Attenborough interviews on tv atm. When talking about 'Oh, what a lovely war' he mentions how gung-ho the public were. They rejected a truce and wanted to go after the Germans. That is the response of a groomed by the press public - with even fewer opportunities to learn more.

Surely that headline is misleading? They can not prevent No Deal, only the means by which the government prepares for No Deal, no?

{'Oh, what a lovely war}
I think the recruitment campaign would have struggled if they said you will be starving in a rat infested trench moving nowhere for 3 years.
Oh, and being shot at and gassed!
It was the lie, 'just pop over and we will be sorted by Christmas'.

I suppose as a 'no deal' is essentially breaking the GFA there is that on it's side.

PMK

...and off to buy more prep supplies

My elderly neighbour when I was a small child signed up for the 1WW.

I interviews him as part of an O level dissertation (oral history! 😁).

He said he and his family were starving. Literally. He signed up because he'd be fed and there would be one less person to try and support in the family.

Most alarmingly, he told me that that's what kept him there, in the trenches. There wasn't anything better to desert to.

So. There's a thought.

Honestly, I think of him when the tired old 'they voted Leave because things couldn't be any worse' line gets trotted out.

I've just arrived at Waitrose to find even they are trolling Brexit

1/3rd off Brexit prepping!

{Honestly, I think of him when the tired old 'they voted Leave because things couldn't be any worse' line gets trotted out.}
People wonder what migrants are coming from all over.
However bad the UK might be it is better than being shot at or gassed, especially by your own government.

Whatever I think about the blocking funding thing (mixed feelings; suspect is futile,) I cannot help wonder, again, what might have been the outcome had there been an Opposition led by Yvette Cooper. 🤷‍♀️

But she was an evil Blairite. So I guess we dodged a bullet there. ☹️

umpteennamechanges
Assuming you are meaning a real notice, a picture would have been good.

cat My late father joined the RAF in the 1930s as an apprentice for the same reason:

he was the eldest child of a large NE wc family who had been on the verge of starvation.
His odd jobs since he left school on his 14th birthday didn't compare to regular pay to send home,
one fewer mouth to feed, one fewer body to clothe - all the kids and his mum were barefoot

This resulted in him fighting all through WW2, which started when he was 21.

Just started prepping in a downmarket way at Asda. No Waitrose here! I think I will be living on tuna and bean curry for a while. Luckily the cat likes tuna too.
I’m feeling a bit thick today and haven’t read posts properly but are people saying that if the WA is voted down than TM could go ahead with it anyway, it being her habit to ignore legal niceties? Or otherwise Revoke?
She’s not staying on anyway, so presumably will do as she sees best - and we haven’t heard “no deal is better than a bad deal” from her lips for a long time now.

Oh dear. Now I'm a very All over again, BigChoc. Despite my resolution to attempt moderation this year.

Why would people vote to inflict that terrifying, unregulated social and economic misery on most of us all over again?

"MPs plan shutdown to prevent No Deal" 🤔

NOPE
They are just preventing some prepping for it

That doesn't stop No Deal at all, just makes it even worse if it happens
it's an attempt to raise the stakes and scare off the govt and some No Dealers

... it also lets the govt blame Remainers for No Deal effects

Also, with Corbyn still supporting Brexit, the Tories can justifiably claim later that they are to blame as well

So rather than split her party with Revoke, May could decide she prefers the Tory chances of fighting a GE under a new Tory leader, but probably still Corbyn - well past his use by date

'Angry' not 'all'

Legally, I'm pretty sure that the WA cannot become law unless the HoC vote for it.

Revoke, however, May can do on her own - she just needs to write a revoke letter to the EU Commission, make sure it is hand-delivered say by our ambassador there to Mr Juncker, before 11pm on 29 March

{The prime minister said she was seeking further clarification from the EU to address the concerns of MPs,} (From Guardian)
The EU have confirmed that what they said and wrote nearly 4 months ago is EXACTLY what they said at the time, and at regular intervals since.
Maybe Mrs May would like to see it written in all 27 languages, just in case?

So in the unlikely event the WA does pass through the HoC (eventually), what reception would greet it in the Lords? Are the Lords threatening to vote against? I’ve heard absolutely nothing about this, so I reckon that’s a sign that it’s unlikely to get through the Commons.

Yes that's my understanding too:

• the default is no deal (and indeed, shutting down government would make it worse, but I think that Cooper et al are looking for leverage but also looking to put some control on how much public money Chris Grayling is giving to his mates)
• the WA must pass a "meaningful vote"
• revoke can be done by May in her capacity as UK head of govt

{Revoke, however, May can do on her own - she just needs to write a revoke letter to the EU Commission, make sure it is hand-delivered say by our ambassador there to Mr Juncker, before 11pm on 29 March}
The warning of the attack on Pearl Harbour arrived half an hour too late.
Maybe consider Mrs May and the government's timekeeping at this point,,,,,,,,,,always LATE.

cat It astonishes me that this NE folk memory has so little prominence

My Leaver family there, at least my generation, would have heard the same 1st hand experiences.
However, even back in the 1960s, my parents told me that the NE relatives were minimising and denying the most painful and / or humiliating experiences as somehow shameful

Even then, some people who had crawled up the ladder considered those who experienced poverty to be shamed, not those who caused or neglected that poverty.

imo, my gran, who sadly died prematurely before I could know her, was a heroine to bring all 13 kids alive through the hungry years of the 1920s and 1930s.
I'm proud she sold all her household possessions, pawned her last pair of shoes, almost all her clothes,
that she somehow made one paypacket stretch to feed everyone just about enough.

Many neighbours lost kids who failed to thrive
especially babies, as mothers were too malnourished to produce milk.

LeClerc Hence why I'm hoping it will be hand-delivered, ideally prepared in advance and given to the ambassador as an emergency contingency
rather than May frantically trying to Skype Junckers at 10:55 on 29 March, when he's already down the pub