Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

Hester imo, the HoL would not vote down or try to amend the WA,
because Brexit was in the Tory manifesto
and hence the WA is fulfilling a manifesto pledge, as far as possible.

By convention, the HoL rarely attempts to vote down a manifesto pledge.

Also, although there are a few batshit Brexiters there

• e.g. Lord Lawson and Baron Tebbit, also UKIP's Lord Pearson and a few NI Unionist peers -

most are responsible politicians who realise the alternative at that stage would be No Deal, not Remain

Also, they can vote their conscience & judgement, without having to worry about deselection or reelection, or even the media (except for being demonised)

Just saw off a particularly annoying brexiter on another thread, happy days. (Also someone who I suspect voted illegally in the referendum).

I agree with BCF, don't think the HoL can block the WA if it passes a meaningful vote in the commons. Think we'd be in full on constitutional crisis if that happened.

BigChoc Thst is tragic, on so many levels.

I'm so glad I had the chance to really talk to my neighbour. The value of those conversations has become clearer to me as I grow old myself.

We have similar stories in our family.

I think you're right about shame. And it is a problem.

Those who think Remainers are all "liberal elite" can see from several threads
that even those who are comfortably off now - which is by no means all Westministenders -
may have grown up in poverty, or have had parents who grew up in great poverty.

From the Mailonline (don't ask!).
{Theresa May today warns her rebellious MPs: back my Brexit deal or voters will lose their jobs.
The Prime Minister uses an article in today’s Mail on Sunday to issue a patriotic rallying cry, }
When Stalin got into power he used this tactic. Some received one way tickets to Northern Siberia. Others were just assassinated.

I know Tinternet records all, but it can never have the same emotional effect as aural history,
delivered by someone speaking from their own experience
so we need to pass on our own experiences verbally to the next generation, family & friends, where possible

Well, if she's decided she won't Revoke, then those are the 2 choices
Only she knows what her plan Z on 29 March is, should time run out

Thanks BCF I’m sure you’re right re the Lords.

Yes I also have recent ancestors who were on the poverty line. Affluence is recent in many people’s families. Since the 70s? I remember the 70s being depressing, and an older relative of mine (who’d emigrated to a Commonwealth country in previous decades) asking when I’d join them there. Assumed I’d want to leave the U.K. They never asked again after that - the U.K. took a turn for for the better.

Legally, I'm pretty sure that the WA cannot become law unless the HoC vote for it.

With all due respect, that's assuming that any attempt the the government - ultimately Theresa May - to continued as if had been passed without it passing can actually be stopped.

The UK doesn't have such a clearly defined separation of powers that attempts by the government to act ultra vires are bound to fail. There's no automatic mechanism to ensure that.

So, let's play Brexit blue-sky, and try and answer the question:

What if Theresa May decides to act as if she had succeeded getting the WA through parliament, even though she hadn't ?

Will the civil service refuse to carry out it's provisions ? Will each government department refuse to act ?

I'm afraid I have zero faith in those last two.

Will the police (the paramilitary wing of the Home Office) refuse to arrest people for not carrying out the WA provisions ?

(Anyone seen a court room yet ? I haven't).

Carl Sagan once said (or has been [mis]quoted as saying) Extraordinary claims, require extraordinary evidence ... by the same token, Extraordinary events require extraordinary thinking (© D.G. Rossetti, 2019). I think it's only now that some commentators are starting to realise "somethings up".

I'm trying very, very hard, because ultimately it was impossible for them to have known, and (unlike moron, cretin, brain-dead, Brexiteers) I am quite willing to admit that at the time I poo-poohed the warnings. But it's possible to blame a lot of this on the LibDems and the Fucked-Term-Parliament-Act. Because without that, we would have had a GE by now. But we were warned. We (well I) ignored those warnings. If the current state of affairs is in part due to that, then I accept my share of the blame.

(This is not to say I don't think we shouldn't have FTPs. But maybe we rushed into it ).

Over to you

She’s not staying on anyway, so presumably will do as she sees best - and we haven’t heard “no deal is better than a bad deal” from her lips for a long time now.

I thought that the other day Borntobequiet and was taking some considerable comfort from it. Unfortunately she then said it just this morning on the Andrew Marr show . Mind you, she also trotted out the risking no Brexit at all line (twice iirc) but was also adamant we would leave the EU on 29 March

Re the HoL voting down the WA. I thought that as the Tories only have a minority government, that the Salisbury convention does not apply. The Tories’ manifesto has not been voted for by a majority and therefore does not need to be adhered to...

The Lords can't vote on something that hasn't gone through the HoC.

Simples.

Will the civil service refuse to carry out it's provisions ?

Perhaps a more pertinent question is whether the EU would see the agreement as valid in that case.

Perhaps a more pertinent question is whether the EU would see the agreement as valid in that case.

(Extraordinary thinking)

Why would Theresa May give two shiny shits what the EU thinks ? In fact it would bolster her case if they claimed she was acting ultra vires. I'm not convinced that the ERG are suddenly going to wake up and go "Oh, yes, the EU is right, Theresa May is acting illegally".

They are much more likely to go "How dare anyone suggest Theresa May is acting illegally and try and thwart the will of the people " and be carried shoulder high through Westminster on the shoulders of some of the MN posters that are most vocal.

WriteToThem.com

has just emailed asking if my MP replied to my letter (where I comment that they are dead to me if they back the Corbyn plan).

My MP has not replied (although, as I said, I've had running correspondence on all other matters), which I noted.

.

Its sad because Eric Pickles abolished the standards commission which could disbar folks from elected office for being liars and bullies
since then the calibre of elected members at all levels has definitely dropped

Where's that from @DGRossetti .

Is that an official poster, where did you come across it DG?

@bellinisurge

www.facebook.com/veryBrexitproblems

I've seen it on FB but cannot find it anywhere else on google image search or phrase search .....

I grew up in a pretty crappy house (almost literally, as we only had an outside bog) outside a failing northern cotton town. Although the house was a substandard mess, my dad in later years used to override any (undeniably justifiable) criticism by proudly saying that at least we were never short of food. Which was true, albeit somewhat monotonous (and backed up by lots of rabbits and pigeons he shot)

I used to think this was setting the bar pretty low (living in squalor, but healthily fed), but later it dawned on me that when he was growing up in the 20s and 30s just getting adequate food onto the table really was something to be proud of, however deficient other aspects of our lives. He'd known real hunger as a kid, so providing enough food to feed the family was indeed a proud boast.

It's maddening that even the line of such meagre progress as between the 30s and the 50s is now being put at risk. Voluntarily.

cannot find it anywhere else on google image search or phrase search

Get used to it ... Google is dying by degrees.

All I know is it popped up on my feed. I clicked in it, and then a right-click and save. I have hundreds of images like that. Really they need organising. I'm forever losing the benefits/tax fraud one .

Must be time for a picture from Paris of Four Horsemen ?