Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

How can it then become law?

There doesn't need to be a vote in the WA. The default is that by law we leave the EU on 29 March.

Parliament may not get a vote to stop that - unless it really exercises its muscles in a cross party way to stop it And to date, it hasn't shown the necessary will to do so

How can it then become law?

Well either it doesn't, or the government acts like it is law. Now you tell me what's to stop either ?

Remember, the Home Office has simply ignored repeated court judgements to no consequence. So there's a clear precedent.

Unless you and I are in parallel universes, I stand by my assertion that the craven collective cowardice of the HoC since the 2017 GE has sent a crystal clear message that the Government can pretty much get away with what it wants. And it's getting bolder.

By the way, I'm forming my predictions not on the forward trajectory of events, but looking back at the path they are forming in history.

The reason Hitler invaded Poland was because nothing happened after he invaded Czechoslovakia. The reason he invaded Czechoslovakia was nothing happened after he united with Austria. The reason he reunited with Austria was because nothing happened after he militarized the Rhineland. The reason nothing happened after he militarized the Rhineland was because nothing happened when he introduced conscription ... (I wrote that in one go with no Google-net ).

It's becoming crystal clear that there is absolutely nothing parliament can do now. Even if it were so minded. We'll look back at the pantomime that was the proposed WA vote (so close to Christmas - the clues were all there) and realise that having got away with it then, it was clear there' nothing to stop Theresa May doing whatever she wants. Not even (and especially) not only her own party (thanks ERG !).

Even if we lived in a less polite part of the world, where assassinations are the preferred method of clearing political deadwood, it wouldn't work. In fact it might just hasten the no deal that's already written into our history. Like the 2020 Pakistan Cricket league.

{So who is being told to shut up?}
The bosses of Nissan in Sunderland, the bosses of BMW, Airbus, Toyota, several medical suppliers and a host of others. Those in charge who have signed can be taken to court, so they will not be releasing real details but for the RHA, there are many members and of course information like the shortage of licences is quite easy to work out. Drivers know they need suitable licenses so you get a group of drivers together or on social media and ask 'who has got a license so far?', and you get a long way towards working out what the current situation is.

How can it then become law?

By circumnavigating democracy by claiming the need for 'emergency' executive powers because of a 'crisis' in the national interest.

The EU would have to accept it - or question the UK’s sovereignity and risk no deal which they don't want.

It would then, in effect be too late for parliament to challenge. Legally it could be challenged I guess.

But this could mean breaking an international agreement if it was ruled that May had acted beyond her powers. I'm guessing at best the courts could force May to have a belated vote, but the idea that this would be meaningful is nonsense. It would in effect give us an A50 extension by stealth (internationally damaging politically).

And at this point, a vote would have different context and political pressures. We are into a situation worse than no deal, because it'd be no deal by breaking a deal that the EU thought had been agreed.

So any vote at this point would be even more gun to the heads of remain leaning MPs. Revoke would be firmly off the table and the horror of no deal even more damaging to our reputation. They would vote for it. They couldn't not do.

Would May do this?

Plenty to suggest that it's consistent with how she worked at the home office, going beyond what was legal, knowing full well that after the fact circumstances are very different and the 'damage has already been done' and in many cases irreversible in effect anyway. She got what she wanted by hook or by crook.

It's a scenario I've not pondered before, but logicking it out, it sounds more plausible than it might seem at first glance.

I have to say that DGRs theory is far less away with the fairies than lots of other options It's far more likely than notions about a 2nd ref. Its more realistic than May attempting to revoke at the last minute too.

I don't like it, but I'm certainly not going to rule it out.

In terms of the political crisis it would spark, it'd be epic, but for all but the ERG it's the only way out.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772601

bbc.co.uk
Commons Brexit vote will 'definitely' happen
6-7 minutes
Prime Minister Theresa May Image copyright Getty Images
Image caption MPs are due to restart the debate on Mrs May's Brexit deal on Wednesday before a vote next week

Theresa May has said the Commons vote on her Brexit deal will "definitely" go ahead next week.

She told the BBC she was seeking assurances from the EU to address the concerns of MPs, as well as specific measures relating to Northern Ireland.

She also said she would look at giving Parliament a greater say in how the UK's future relationship is negotiated.

But a poll carried out for the People's Vote campaign suggests fewer than one in four voters support her Brexit deal.

MPs are due to vote on whether to back Mrs May's Brexit plan in the next two weeks.

Asked by the BBC's Andrew Marr if the vote - which was postponed last month - would go ahead, she replied "definitely".

She said the UK would be in "unchartered territory" if the Commons rejected the terms of the UK's withdrawal but asked repeatedly if she would seek further votes if this happened, she declined to say.

The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 - regardless of whether there is a deal with the EU or not.

A deal on the terms of the UK's divorce and the framework of future relations has been agreed between the prime minister and the EU - but it needs to pass a vote by MPs in Parliament before it is accepted.

The House of Commons vote had been scheduled to take place in December but Mrs May called it off after it became clear that not enough MPs would vote for her deal.

The debate on the deal will restart on Wednesday, with the crucial vote now expected to take place on 15 January.

Writing in the Mail, Mrs May said: "The only way to both honour the result of the referendum and protect jobs and security is by backing the deal that is on the table."

She said "no one else has an alternative plan" that delivers on the EU referendum result, protects jobs and provides certainty to businesses.

"There are some in Parliament who, despite voting in favour of holding the referendum, voting in favour of triggering Article 50 and standing on manifestos committed to delivering Brexit, now want to stop us leaving by holding another referendum," she said.

"Others across the House of Commons are so focused on their particular vision of Brexit that they risk making a perfect ideal the enemy of a good deal.

"Both groups are motivated by what they think is best for the country, but both must realise the risks they are running with our democracy and the livelihoods of our constituents."
Public polled on Brexit

Meanwhile, a poll of more than 25,000 Britons suggests Labour would be punished by voters if the party either ends up backing the government's deal or does not actively oppose it.

The YouGov poll, carried out for the People's Vote campaign which is demanding another referendum, suggests 75% of Labour supporters would prefer a final say on Brexit.

Mr Corbyn has previously said the decision to leave the EU cannot be reversed.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn Image copyright Dominic Lipinski
Image caption Jeremy Corbyn said Brexit is a "complete mess" and Mrs May was trying to "drive a bad deal" through Parliament

Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that it was completely wrong to suggest, as some have done, that Labour was "enabling Brexit".

"This country had a referendum," he said. "The British people voted in that referendum for Brexit."

Labour, he insisted, had decided as a party not to rule out any options but, if the PM's deal was rejected, the government needed to choose what to do next and potentially re-open the negotiations.

The poll also suggested:

22% of all Britons back Mrs May's deal, rising to 28% among Leave voters
53% of Britons believe they - instead of MPs - should be given the final say on Brexit, once those who responded "don't know" were removed
And among those who said they would vote in another referendum, the survey suggested 54% would back remaining in the EU, compared to 46% for Leave

Mrs May now has less than a fortnight to persuade Parliament to back her deal.

Some Conservative MPs continue to believe the deal does not represent the Brexit the country voted for in 2016 - with some happy for the UK to leave the EU with no deal.

"If there has been a change it is a hardening of attitudes among MPs to a no deal," Peter Bone told the Sophy Ridge show on Sky News.

He said there was increasing evidence that a no deal was "absolutely OK".

The best way to "get on" with Brexit was to leave without a deal, he added: "There was no question I remember in the referendum about a deal or not. It was leave or remain. The way you leave is to come out on March 29."

Other MPs are pushing for a second referendum, while opposition parties including Labour plan to vote against her deal.

Labour wants to force a general election by calling a vote of no confidence in the government if the deal is rejected by MPs.

Mrs May has been seeking further assurances from EU leaders about more controversial aspects of the agreement such as the Irish border "backstop", which is designed to prevent physical customs checks on the island of Ireland.

The Democratic Unionist Party - whose support the Conservative Party relies on for a majority in the House of Commons - wants to make sure the backstop is temporary and that the UK, including Northern Ireland, can exit from it without EU approval.

Earlier this week, a leading figure in the party said there is "no way" it would back the deal.

I have to say that DGRs theory is far less away with the fairies than lots of other options It's far more likely than notions about a 2nd ref. Its more realistic than May attempting to revoke at the last minute too.

And with no crystal ball, but a copy of the The Second World War , and a mug of of coffee.

www.amazon.co.uk/Second-World-War-Winston-Churchill/dp/0712667024?tag=mumsnetforum-21

Well, if you are right DRG we are living in a dictatorship.

However, i do not believe so, not yet anyway.

I also don't quite understand how May can just carry on with her WA as if Parliament has voted for it, when its not law? it has to be ratified by Parliament, the EU will not negotiate further based on a non legally binding WA for starters.

Of course she could - legally - just run it all down until 29/3.

So who is being told to shut up?

I've been party to information out there, and I think that there are others on the thread who are not dissimilar situations, where people we know in important roles with credibility (and influence) who are being sat on by people higher up the food chain with threats to their careers. We know silencing is going on. And it troubles us. But I don't have the information that needs to be leaked to the newspapers myself. I just know it exists. And I know that the newspapers know it exists but they can't report it cos they also don't have that info they need to publish.

This is where you think about the real power of the rich.

They potentially could do more to stop a no deal. But in reality they perhaps have nothing to lose by no deal. And perhaps a lot to gain by it.

To do drastic action you have to be very motivated and very driven to make those kind of challenges to power. In reality in those circles it's more likely to really be indifference.

Well, if you are right DRG we are living in a dictatorship.

However, i do not believe so, not yet anyway.

Historically people do not realise the transition from democracy to dictatorship until its too late.

See America

RTB thats hearsay!

There are people "in the know" down here that are convinced cornwall council is selling housing stock to a Birmingham housing association....

I wrote to the Council under a FOI request asking if this is true, wording it in such a way there could be no ambiguity, they came back and said, with no redaction, that this was NOT the case but could not stop a private seller from selling to whom they like, basically one or two families from the midlands have moved down......

Rumour is a dangerous thing.

So much of what is going on is a shitty game of 'delay things until the outcome is inevitable'. There OUGHT to be many who lied or provided illegal funds who SHOULD be tried and go to prison. Delaying the investigations simply allows the likes of the ERG/May top carry on regardless. OK in another 5 years maybe after a half hearted investigation some might get their wrists slapped but for now the government is acting as if the referendum were legitimately won with no attempt at rigging. Makes you wonder why some donors put millions into the process, wherever the money really came from.

The question arises (frequently) in my mind of what the hell is the UK going to DO when industry finally shows it's hand and leaves and the UK has left the EU.
By the UK's actions it doesn't give a damn about good relations with the EU, there are only a certain number of times you can tell the EU negotiating team to 'F off' before they take you seriously and do.
So on the basis a Revoke won't happen, and the big chunks of industry have moved out what is the UK going to spend the next few years DOING.
Who is the UK going to suck up to (sorry I mean try and dominate with it's brilliance)?

Well, if you are right DRG we are living in a dictatorship.

If I asserted that, what evidence you you use to refute me ?

Even the tone in the BBC article I just quoted ...

... dangerous for democracy to criticize the WA ...

On what planet isn't that the sort of thing Idi Amin, or Pinochet, or Castro or Stalin or Hitler or Mussolini would not say ?

How long before you won't be allowed to hear people criticizing Brexit, and needing their voices dubbed ?

So much of what is going on is a shitty game of 'delay things until the outcome is inevitable'.

Justice delayed, is justice denied.

I saw an interesting assertion that if Hitler had not cut back on research development funding, and linked up some of the many teams actually researching various technologies in parallel rather than a joint effort, several things like the jet aircraft would have been up to 2 years earlier which would probably mean he would have at least defeated the UK. The jet fighter was up and running in prototype form in 1945 but too late to put them into production.
Moral: delay and collaborative thinking.

Well, if you are right DRG we are living in a dictatorship

If I asserted that, what evidence you you use to refute me?

I ve lived in 2 one party states, the UK is far removed from either of these countries - Zim and SA and spent time in Namibia.

May is now doing little more than Major did with the Maastricht treaty, bullying and threatening opponents.
Ultimately though, unlike a dictatorship, he (as May will do) faced the electorate.

No one can dislike the Tories and May like i do but though her language is much like a dictator (i seriously wonder if she is mentally ill?) she isn't one and is bound by Cabinet, Parliament and the electorate.

RTB thats hearsay!

And precisely why the press are not reporting.

And I totally appreciate that you don't want to believe what I'm telling you. You have nothing tangable. I'm just a random on the internet and you have to assess what I'm saying in a critical fashion. As you should.

It doesn't mean its NOT happening though. You don't have a FOI stating its not true in this case do you?

Its less easy for me to dismiss what I've been told. I know who is saying it. I know who they work for. Which newspaper is aware of it. How they have offered to run a story about it. And the pressure there has been to prevent that. And how frustrated the friend is about the whole damn thing and how they can't even leak it. And yes, I do believe them. They have no reason to lie. They are well connected. And generally isn't a prone to political nonsense (not least because its their job not to be).

I am pretty sure there are others on this thread in a similar position if my PMs are anything to go by.

The culture of fear is indicative of politics on the whole at present too. Its certainly true of politics relating to trans issues. Its reflective of why whistleblowers have been treated appallingly (North Staffs springs to mind). It would be a feature of why leaks are currently the norm rather than the exception. Its a part of why Grenfell and Windrush happened. Its the only environment in which corruption CAN fester. People KNEW but either didn't care, didn't want to know or didn't have the power to be taken seriously and heard.

People ARE NOT speaking freely. Its incredibly unhealthy that speaking the truth to power is simply not happening where it should be.

And ironically the distrust it creates only serves to create conspiracy theories in the absence of the truth being transparent. Thus making the whole thing of governance even more opaque.

The Washington Post currently has a strapline: 'Democracy dies in darkness'

There is a reason for it.

But she isn't bound by Parliament - and only marginally if at all by Cabinet - because Parliament in its stupidity has awarded her extended Henry VIII powers

Ultimately though, unlike a dictatorship, he (as May will do) faced the electorate.

John Major was defeated at election by the Labour Party.

May has stated she has no intension to stand at the next GE because of the Tory Party Shennagans . Therefore she has now nothing to lose in terms of facing the electorate...

I don't think we are in a dictatorship right now, but I do think we are at a stage where finding ourselves in one in the foreseeable future is not in the realms of fantasy.

May is not a dictator but she does work in a way that begins to normalise dangerous tendancies. Making decisions behind closed doors, acting in contempt of parliament and trying to circumnavigate putting decisions to parliament, refusing to accept and covering up negative research on government policies, exaggeration of threats from external threats such as the ridiculous hoo hah over the asylum seekers in boats over the Christmas period.

All these seemingly small things together create an expectation in the electorate that this is normal so when someone comes along who takes it further they are merely pushing boundaries rather than dismantling democracy. A real dictator suddenly doesn't seem so shocking until it is far too late to get rid of them.

Add onto that the unprecedented opportunities Brexit provides for pushing the rules and disrupting the normal workings of our country (akin to a war or economic collapse) and I can't help but feel we are living in a very dangerous time indeed.

I agree Bigly. For a country with no written constitution, the UK is already in dangerous territory.

The UK does of course have a constitution, but not one that is accessible to ordinary people wishing to understand and defend their rights (compare and contrast with how actively ordinary Americans claim and defend their constitutional rights).

The US isn't an panacea of democracy of course: I'd argue that a constitution is necessary but not sufficient. (The US democratic deficit is more about how political actors have been able to game election law, traditionally by gerrymandering but increasingly by voter suppression. It's no surprise that the Tories are now trying both these tactics).

Panacea? I meant paragon, sorry.

I assume everyone’s read this in the Times today:

MPs plan shutdown to prevent No Deal

An all-party group of senior MPs will launch an audacious attempt to derail a no-deal Brexit this week by starving the government of cash and creating a Donald Trump-style shutdown.

MPs will vote on Tuesday on two amendments to the Finance Bill that would lead to a gridlock in Whitehall unless Theresa May wins approval from parliament for a deal with Brussels.

The former Labour cabinet minister Yvette Cooper is at the head of a group of select committee leaders who have tabled an amendment that would rob the Treasury of its no-deal powers if ministers pressed ahead without the support of MPs. Last night she vowed that the group — which includes former Tory ministers Nicky Morgan, Oliver Letwin and Nick Boles — would try to amend every single piece of legislation going forward to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Two members of Theresa May’s team last night admitted the plan could lead to “total paralysis” at the top of government.

The Finance Bill grants the Treasury the right to spend money on a no-deal Brexit and wider powers, which are not defined, that could be used for emergency interventions in the event of no deal.

“Our amendment would block some of the Treasury’s no-deal powers unless parliament has explicitly voted for no deal or unless the government has requested an extension of article 50,” Cooper said. “We’ll be looking to table similar safeguards to all government legislation.”

The plan is also backed by select committee leaders Hilary Benn, Rachel Reeves, Sarah Wollaston, Harriet Harman and Frank Field.

A second amendment, tabled by the Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru, would stop the Treasury raising any income tax or corporation tax unless parliament approved a Brexit deal.

Last night the prime minister warned MPs the “only way to both honour the result of the referendum and protect jobs and security is by backing the deal that is on the table”. In an appeal to her own party, she said: “Let’s discover a new spirit of common purpose. Let’s agree a Brexit deal that moves us forward into a brighter future with confidence.”

A senior government source admitted that the Cooper amendment would be “the first of many” attempts to box in May and expressed concern that the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, would allow them.

Also on Tuesday, May will face a new cabinet ambush, with remainer ministers such as David Gauke expected to call on her to rule out no deal and others such as Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt to demand planning be geared up.

The moves come as May’s team draws up a plan to get support for her deal by asking the European Court of Justice to issue legal guidance that the Northern Ireland backstop is “temporary”.

* S*he does work in a way that begins to normalise dangerous tendancies.

Making decisions behind closed doors, acting in contempt of parliament and trying to circumnavigate putting decisions to parliament, refusing to accept and covering up negative research on government policies, exaggeration of threats

Yes I think this is very sinister. I've been reading Orwell's Animal farm with DD and see some resonant messages in there, especially about the manipulation of news. I feel it's unprecedented in recent times, but perhaps it's always been so duplicitous and secretive, and we just know more about the extent of secrecy since the ref as views are so polarised ?

I note how much more rabidly Brexiteer the online version of the headline is.

Print: ‘MPs plan shutdown to prevent No Deal’ Vs Online: ‘MPs threaten Trump style shutdown over Brexit’