Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

Thanks Red.

Predictions, heavens knows. I liked that prediction article that was posted up on the last thread.

Whatever happens will be a mess I think. I cannot see a positive way forward with the politicians we have.

I think we are either on track for a No Deal Brexit or May will blink and revoke A50. But I don't think she'll have the courage to do the latter. I think she still believes that she can force through her WA by playing chicken with Parliament and win There is a faint chance that Parliament will mutiny and either vote through a Vote of No Confidence (unlikely) or vote against the WA but for A50 revocation - which might be May's "Get Out of Jail Free" card.

The nasty EU and the bloody Remoaners will be the scapegoat.

Immigration will continue to be the "big issue" .Austerity and growing inequality will continue to be the elephant in the room

The most shocking thing that will happen (but not to those of us who frequent these threads ) will be that Project Fear wasn't Project Fear after all but Project Reality.

Trump will continue to avoid impeachment - it would only strengthen his campaign for a 2nd term to have Congress go after him and the Senate would block it anyway. However, by avoiding it, he might actually fail to get the GOP endorsement for his 2nd term.

Next Tory leader may well be Gove. He's a slimy wee toad who is keeping his head down

I think another GE would result in another hung parliament. The difference might be that Scotland might revert to the 2015 SNP numbers - hopefully with one additional win (the last Tory in Scotland, Fluffy, deservedly losing his seat according to his own statements, he should already have resigned the Whip ). I don't think that there will be an Indyref2 in 2019, but depending on how badly Brexit is going, there might be one in early 2020.

PMK

How is Brexit going to play out?

Hmmm. I think we'll avoid no deal due to the efforts of MPs working across party. The WA will be voted down but may have the backing of the ERG as it's the only brexit they'll ever get. And there'll be the biggest stalemate in history with increasing threats made to sensible MPs. So we send lots of love and support to those MPs. No GE but a panicky, temp, emergency, once in a life time, cross party gov may form??? led by NS!! Never happen, even in an emergency there's no respect for Scottish MPs the emergency gov will either revoke or call a ref.

TM and JC will have an affair The tabloids will trumatise us with details.

Trump.... should be impeached but won't be - at least not in the first two thirds of 2019.

I will continue to crush on the Spanish PM and he will say kind soothing words to our freaked out and crumbling emergency gov.

Oh and Russia will get up to some shit.

Ta red

Increase in organised crime and lawlessness.
Private security companies/militias.

Reunited Ireland seriously considered.

Renewed possibility of Scottish independence.

(The horrible Turn Back The Boats thread has been hidden).

Thank goodness, it was a truly vile thread!
I am still preparing as best I can for a cliff edge exit whilst fervently hoping that something stops it. I can't see what will do that at the moment.
I keep telling my DS to pay attention to what is happening as we are living through one of the most momentous periods of our history. People need to remember how this happened.

I predict: EU & Remainers will be the scapegoats. Also T-May will be a scapegoat. EU "was always going to punish us" and "Brexit would be wonderful if true Brexiters had negotiated it"

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

I don't agree with indulging conspiracy theories.

I share Pretty's hope that parliament will vote against the WA but for A50 revocation - which might be May's "Get Out of Jail Free" card.

Read a few interesting guardian articles yesterday - one about the checks and balances in US political structures keeping things going, with lots of statements like clinging on and surviving.
Another by Dominic Grieve about cross party support for a second referendum.

For 20 minutes I dared to dream that common sense, decency and imagination would surface in 2019.

Then I read the article BigChoc linked to. A vile man making money in vile ways. How is that legal? It's not better than mafioso dealings. It lays bare corruption with a sense of pride that is sickening. Read the damning UN poverty assessment straight afterwards, and try not to be sick.

It reminds me of an Eddie Izzard skit when he's discussing murder, and mass murder. Someone kills 1 person and we lock them up. They kill 3 people and we stare at them through a window forever. They kill 20 people and they get sent to Texas and we hit them in the head with a brick. They kill 6 million people and we're almost saying well done, you did all that?! I can't even get down the gym!

Trump will continue to withdraw from all treaties and continue his work in destroying the earth with pollution. He is the devil incarnate. He will serve another term cos money is Americas God.
People will continue to die on our streets, in our overcrowded hospitals and at home alone, cold and hungry. Brexit will be far from their thoughts. The poor will grow in number due to this government and brexit if we exit or stay.
As no one in Parliament has any guts at all to stand up and be counted whichever way the present shit will continue till March when admidst the worst winter in years A50 is revolked and millions of Pounds spent in preparation for no deal will be gone leaving the next government with a huge deficit which will be another Tory led government. And the poor will continue to die early.
On the other hand we could all be living and able to continue to debate!

P.s thanks red for new thread.

PPS happy new year to all. May you all live long and healthy

Either WA or No Brexit. If we get WA, the beLeavers will lose interest in the nuance of macroeconomics and whine about something else. Probably "wreckers" generally. The people who deliberately ruin shit plans. Rather than the shit plans themselves.

I don't think we will crash out with no deal, but I do think it will go down to the wire before either the WA is called or there is a second referendum.

The US will become politically deadlocked with the Democratic majority in the House. Trump will do something horrible and dangerous in the foreign affairs space.

Place mat king

Thanks red
Happy new year all hopefully

Usually a lurker on these threads not a contributor, but if you are asking for predictions, I (tentatively) think we will stay in the EU. I can't see WA getting through and surely, surely the Tories won't allow us to crash out with no deal - surely they have more self interest than that??

I hope for another GE where the only possibility is a genuine Coalition. At that stage I would like to see the moderates turn on the extreme right and left wingers and tell them that they had their chance, they messed up, so now STFU.

I didn't really want a People's Vote - going on the demo is my way of showing that the 48% haven't gone away and that I am not going to 'get behind' someone who deliberately wrecks the country.

Ideally I would like to see Parliament be forced to decamp elsewhere while building work takes place, and find somewhere with decent conference facilities, which makes them realise that a small HoC with insufficient seating and two sides is hopelessly outdated, so let's rebuild in a U shape, and preferably elsewhere - Manchester say. Which then leads to electoral reform. There is no flying pigs emoji so this one will have to do

I would love to see A50 revoked but I'm not convinced it will be because I think the government know it would disenfranchise and anger so many people. So I think the WA will go through, but not til the last minute, and no-one will be really happy about it.

How will Brexit play out ? I honestly don't think it will. We will remain in the EU. Some people will be upset, but will get over it

Like Hazard I think Russia will continue to get up to some shit, although I think they may push a little too far, emboldened by recent successes.

I think the Kurds will become victims of genocide following the US troop withdrawal. British media will continue to focus on 7 people arriving by dinghy, as the biggest threat to the UK in our lifetime. Until the first body washes up on an English beach.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Badly...

WA squeezed through Parliament at the last moment, using a whole host of controversial means and despite some filbustering to try to scupper it.

DUP will support it but as the last breath of their supply and confidence agreement with the Tories.

No planes falling out of the sky on March 30th, but within 6 months it will all be rather grim as everyone realises the full repercussions of not having a frictionless border with the EU

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

Theresa May will go down in the history books as the PM who precipitated our equivalent of Japan's 10 year crisis, by leaving the EU. No-one except for pub quiz nerds will remember that it was David Cameron who got us into the mess in the first place

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

Immigration, immigration, immigration

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

Another mass terror attack (but I so hope that I am wrong )

What will happen with Trump?

He will lose yet more staff, through people not being able to work with him and legal problems. He will announce that, although he was really up for it, he won't be running for re-election

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Michael Gove, before the end of May 2019

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general

Tories will collapse on themselves as the clusterfuck of Brexit becomes apparent

Labour will continue to disappear up its own navel - Momentum will become yet more powerful, leading to a break away of the more centrist politicians (and those who realise that they will never get elected with Corbyn and McDonnell at the helm)

Lib Dems will have power at a local level but fail to turn this into Westminster seats

Greens will disappear

DUP will gain in strength

Sinn Fein will gain in strength - a united Ireland is a more realistic prospect that at almost any time in the last 100 years

SNP will push for a further indie referendum but not get it, and will be punished by the voters for this

Placemat King.

I think no deal is looking the likeliest outcome now.

I try and comfort myself that revocation can only happen if the country truly believes we are staring into the abyss and we aren't quite there yet... But there's still time... But I think that's probably unicorn talk.

I'm just hoping to live long enough to see my dgd graduate....then she can analyze my fucked up mind!

I predict 2019 to be a year of peace and goodwill to all. Now I really do need to be sectioned!