Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

Gove for next Tory leader

To hard to call whether it will be no deal, revocation or WA.

Scapegoats are certain. Likely the EU and UK government/ civil service for cocking up the negotiations. The fact that the Brexit imagined by leavers is a load of unegotiable unicorns will not be widely recognised.

I predict 2022 for a united Ireland - a symbolic date, 100 year anniversary.

Vince Cable has said he would stand down soon, so I expect that to be a certainty.

I don't think that people will forget that Cameron started Brexit. He and May will eclipse Neville Chamberlain and Anthony Eden as the worst PMs we have had. A lot of Leave MPs will scarper.

Thanks for the thread

I’m crap at predictions but I’ll try.

I dont think there will be a people’s vote. I used to want one but it’s too dangerous and I think May knows that.
She has said a number of times that people need to support her deal or risk no Brexit at all. That’s what I think will happen, her deal won’t get support and she’ll revoke article 50.

Lord only knows what will happen with Labour. Limp on with Jeremy as leader until he loses another GE.

Did anyone make predictions this time last year and if so, how accurate were they?

Peregrina - I believe history will judge Cameron, TM, JC et Al but this will not happen during 2019.

The debate is still too polarised and tribal. My belief is that any issues arising from Brexit will be blamed on its handling rather than the principal.

.

Thanks as always, red 💐

^My predictions:

Brexit
40% chance No Deal vs 40% WA vs 20% Revoke^

I ônly give Revoke that high a chance because it can happen in several ways:

^either
May reluctantly accepts a PV to break an HoC deadlock,
or
the HoC vote for a PV themselves
or
May gives the HoC the various options to vote on in turn - quite a popular move in cabinet - to vote on in turn and Revoke gains the most
or
she blinks at the last moment, maybe even 29 March and does it herself
^
Scapegoat^

If it's No Deal:
the EU for "punishing" us^

^If WA or Revoke:
May for being a secret Remainer "saboteur"
^
Biggest issues pushed by the media^

If No Deal:
EU "punishment" and plans to force us back in
^
If ^WA or Revoke:
Refugee boats
^
Shocking Thing(s)^

If either form of Brexit^:

The govt tries to divert attention away from its problems by demonising immigrants,
especially those coming in by boat
They will be the new bogeymen
The Navy may even be sent to turn them back

regardless of what happens wrt Brexit:

Trump suspends US membership of NATO, withdraws troops from Europe and everywhere else where the rulers aren't dictators he gets along with
and who give him bungs / permission for Trump hotels^

Trump gives clear statement of support for some aggressive military action(s) by Putin:
possibly full invasion of Ukraine and / or all-out slaughter in Putin's war to support Assad in Syria^

What happens with Trump

I think he'll survive 2019 as POTUS - barely

There is speculation in some NYT and WP articles that

• mainly because of his openly pro Putin foreign policy and what may come out of his closet - the GOP will force him to stand down and let Pearce take over, in return for his guaranteed immunity from prosecution

He will resist this fiercely and intends to stand again in 2020

BUT Trump may be weakened / worried enough by Mueller to agree to stand down in early 2020, possibly late 2019
BECAUSE
He'll want firm promises of immunity from the next POTUS
and noone could predict who would be the GOP candidate and certainly not that they would win the 2020 elections

Next Tory leader

If either form of Brexit:

May will stay on for the full 12 months before standing down

In the leadership contest afterwards, in late Dec 2019 or early Jan 2020,
the batshit / disgraceful will be knocked out - i.e. DD, Boris, any other ERG candidate -

If No Deal, then Gove will get in, the most knowledgeable of all Brexiters about the realities of dealing with the disaster.

If WA, either Gove or possibly newer blood like Hunt, with Javid as possible deputy

If Revoke:
She will quit soon after 29 March has passed, taking the full fury of the ERG on her shoulders

In the leadership contest, MPs will avoid letting anyone get through to the last 2, unless they promise not to Invoke and restart the whole nightmare again

Next leader probably Gove, the only one who might reunite the party and calm the hard right

What will happen to the parties

If WA, DUP withdraw support, then GE
Probable Tory win

If No Deal, the Tories & DUP will stick together for self-preservation, so no 2019 GE

If Revoke, Tory civil war, then the govt collapses, GE

If Corbyn forces Labour to support Brexit, i.e. blocks PV and Revoke
then Labour will lose a massive number of under 35 votes both to Remain parties like the LDems, possibly Greens and to abstentions
Tories will win a large majority

In all eventualies, SNP support will rise
They will win more seats at the next GE
Support for Indy will rise

If there is a hung parliament after a GE where they hold the balance of power, they would offer only Confidence & Support
and that only on condition that a bill is passed within the 1st year to call IndyRef #2

The UK will become a grand 'theme park' with golf courses for the Japanese and Americans, and 'historic experience days' like Morwellham Quay and old coal mines, steel mills, old houses and castles etc. Book readings on the moors of the works of the Bronte's, cream teas in Devon.
Mme Tusauds to take over Westminster and open it up more as an attraction. UK government to decamp to a prefab block in Milton Keynes.

If Revoke, Tory civil war, then the govt collapses, GE

This will be what stops revoke

Oh and re NI:
I predict the DUP will lose seats at the next GE
massively if it's No Deal

Support for reunification will grow on both sides of the border
Any Brexit, especially No Deal, will accelerate this significantly by decades

adequatefood Avoiding a Tory party civil war has ALWAYS been May's priority from day 1
With #2 avoiding electoral defeat at the next GE

It explains all her apparently daft decisions

With any other Opposition leader but Corbyn, she'd worry more about a No Deal keeping the Tory party out of power for a generation

With him there, she probably calculates voters would not elect him to deal with a No Deal disaster

Also, she will have read the polls that younger voters would abandon Labour in large numbers if Corbyn forces them to support Brexit

Hence #1 for her is WA, with #2 probably being No Deal

Yes, I believe the reunification of Ireland within 5 years is a distinct possibility.

Would that be the ultimate end of empire?

If No Deal, then Gove will get in, the most knowledgeable of all Brexiters about the realities of dealing with the disaster.

There would be some justice in that, as one of the architects of the Leave vote. I don't see how he could do anything but make a mess, however.

It used to be only 2 certainties in life, death and taxes. Now we can add 'Brexit mess'.

Anyone peeked at the £65 thread in AIBU ? It could be used in schools as a paradigm of attitudes that enabled the Nazis.

*How is Brexit going to play out?
*
The only thing I’m certain of is it will play out badly. Just Badly. We have already lost billions from this farce.

All scenarios are far, far worse than our previous role as a leading force in a powerful trading bloc.

I think by then over half of us will all be dragged out of the EU against our will. There will be some fudged deal keeping the / a Customs Union. *

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?
*
On a rubbish WA or fudge or no deal- the EU, Remainers and TM will be the scapegoats. Agree with the blaming that the undefined impossible glorious Brexit would have been wonderful if only true Brexiters had led it forgetting that they produced a shit unworkable plan that was derided within 24 hours.*

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?
*
Immigration -sigh.

Also I think edging towards Irish unification and Scottish independence. This whole mess will lead to a separate England still with Wales though.
*
What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?
*
Something shameful Trump does involving abuse of human rights of non white people.* *
Agree* some stupid support for some aggressive military action by Putin or similar.

What will happen with Trump?

Sadly I think the polls will show he is still supported by many but the Mueller enquiry will close in. Trump doesn’t have the stamina and self sacrifice required. He will maybe complete his term or maybe resign before, with some excuse knowing his star is waning anyway.He must want an easier pampered life and if his dodgy deceits are being exposed he may jump first- painting himself as an unappreciated victim of fake news or something.

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?
*
Jeremy Hunt, (Gove), Amber Rudd, Penny Mordaunt*.
*
Next Labour leader may actually be a woman on the basis of the glass cliff effect. Emily Thornberry. Angela Tayner, Yvette Cooper. Possibly Kier Starmer but s eomsn is more likely.*

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?*

DUP confidence and supply ends possible GE which Tories win again but Labour and the Tories neck and neck with the latter inexplicably retaining just under 40 % declared voting intention but not enough for a majority.

Lib Dem’s slight increase.

Labour also hovering around the 40% but maybe managing to just edge to 41 or something if they change leader?

Don’t know- confused on this as depends on what happens on 29 March. Tories some how clinging on.

Sorry bold fails.

scapegoats

Forgot this bit. My prediction is as the leavers and brexiters are so divided amoungst themselves they will struggle to unite even over the scapegoat.

The strength of Remain is we all want one tangible thing the weakness of leave is that all want different things. This is in essence why Brexit has turned into such a comedy show.

It's also a good talking point with Leavers or moderate Leavers. The camp is filled with headless chickens, some chickens want to choose their own heads, others want more corn and others want people to stop taking their eggs.

Brexit and the UK
May will get her deal through and will go onto lead the Tories in a snap GE, which she'll win as disgruntled Labour Remainers give up on JC/Lab and vote libdem who'll go back to 50 mp's
They'll be no scapegoat as the media will rally round and May/tories who will be portrayed as national hero's who led us out of the corrupt EU to bright future!

We'll have another 2 to 4 years of negotiations and not much will appear to have changed, all the leavers will cry "told you it was all Project fear" as we slip further down G8/G20 league tables and in-equality grows.

EU will change its FOM rules to a FOL system (freedom of Labour) to head off the rise of the far right but they'll be even less calls for leaving the bloc as they all see the strength the EU has over the UK.

The Tories will go even further to the Right and JC will be replaced by.... Jess Phillips (outside bet) to lead a decimated Labour.

USA Trump will go onto to contest another election and win! as US becomes even more isolationist and protective.

International China will trigger a further diplomatic crisis in the South china seas and their "reeducation camps" will hit the news, they cannot keep the lid on millions of people locked up against their will forever.

EU will change its FOM rules to a FOL system (freedom of Labour) to head off the rise of the far right

Unlikely ...

Italy's Parliament has approved a revised budget for 2019, amid opposition complaints that it was dictated by the EU.
The country's populist government had originally vowed to push through costly campaign including a universal basic income. But in October, the European Commission raised concerns about the impact of such spending on Italy's debt levels. Rome was told to revise its budget, or face fines and disciplinary action.

As a member of the Euro, Italys relationship with EU is fundamentally different from the UKs.

However that said, Italys geo-economic situation has parallels with the UKs - a very well-off North begrudging the South (or an impoverished South bitter at the North ...)

The UK chose to keep Sterling, so does not have any constraints on its budget deficit

However, Italy belongs to the Eurozone, so they have signed up to to a limit on budget deficit,
to avoid destabilising the Euro and harming other eurozone members.

Italians oppose leaing the Euro; they just want to break the rules they signed up to.
I understand why Leavers sympathise with this attitude.

To keep the budget deficit within the agreed limits, Italy could choose to keep the basi income and cut something else, e.g. military spending
or they could raise taxes

As the country wakes from festive torpor and no deal plans get more and more publicity, small businesses go into a tailspin of panic as they are in no way prepared for the chaos. People, faced with the reality of rationing of food and medicines, the prospect of fuel shortages and the belated realisation that freedom of movement - and the lack of it - works both ways, begin to agitate and grumble about how they have been duped and misled. There are calls for a PV from all sides, May vetos it again and also vetos a further march. Corbyn remains inscrutable while Remainer Labour MPs tear their hair out, in the company of Tory remainers. People take to the streets anyway. Everyone is blamed by everyone else. Police and army are called in. Organisations break their non disclosure agreements en masse, further enraging the populace. Trump tweets something stupid.
Parliament goes into spasm and forces a Revoke. At this point my imagination runs out.
Happy New Year everyone.

Also worth noting that Italy has had to deal with almost as many migrants as it took to drag our Home Secretary back from holiday

(that's a Brexit "almost", of course)