Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

[1tisILeClerc]

{Since the WA isn't a deal but is a means of buying more time, may I try to convince myself that the will of the people will change within the next two years and it becomes clear that the appetite for leaving the EU is now a minority opinion? }
The whole point of the WA is that 30 March remains the same conditions for the vast majority in the UK, as it is on 29 March.
Yes the UK will lose the MEPs and representation in new legislation in the EU parliament but this would not affect 99.99% of the UK for many weeks. The EU negotiating team are 'standing by' to hit the negotiating table as soon as the ink dries on the WA so a well trained and focused UK government negotiating team can grab a coffee and get stuck in.
If the UK is still bickering and messing about, the EU negotiators can sit and wait until the UK sorts itself out, 99.99% of the UK can get on with life.
Of course EU based businesses will be making their moves so for example BMW (?) who have said they will do maintenance for 2 or 4 weeks will see how the government plans are shaping up and either move out of the UK or readjust their plans to suit themselves.
The EU get to receive £10 Billion a year or whatever it is, which will cushion the losses they are suffering and can complete their preparations at a more measured pace.
As Xebob and others have said/hinted, it won't take much for 'accidents' to happen with regard to food/medicine distribution. We already know the UK police forces are not tightly bound together with their communications and command systems, leaving space for 'power standoffs' as mentioned by Xebob about Haiti.

150 trucks testing the route:
So you tell the general public there will be some traffic chaos so,,,,,they will avoid those routes thus making the test invalid. Brilliant.
Almost as good as the gag about the 'non working matches'. 'Well they all worked when I tried them this morning!'

[Peregrina]

they will avoid those routes thus making the test invalid. Brilliant.

It will produce a different test though - it will clog up the other roads.

[Mistigri]

I'm a bit of a Richard North sceptic these days, but this is very, very good, on the "systems" aspect of roro traffic through Dover, the symbiotic relationship between competing ferry and train services, and the threat that Brexit poses to the entire business model.

eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87107

[TatianaLarina]

WA only solves the immediate problem. Negotiations post WA take 5-10 years, potentially leading to more cliff edges, and meanwhile inward investment and jobs disappear, and educated workers take their skills where they are more appreciated.

Agreed.

Tories will spend the next few years discovering that FTAs do not produce frictionless trade and that imaginary technicological solutions for borders don’t exist.

The bare minimum of a customs union deal would be required to prevent customs checks between both NI+ROI and GB+NI, and would also need additional Swiss/SM style agreements on SPS checks.

Business just want time to move JIT manufacturing out of UK during transition. EU know this, and are happy to gain that business from the U.K. These businesses have already triggered their plans. Their only panic is if the UK crashes out in March.

[Ta1kinPeace]

Manston to Ramsgate is a really short route so if they use Manston for that port it makes a lot of sense.

Manston to Dover has always been barking - hence why they never did it.
but TBH the little roads round the old coal mining villages are so crap that the lorries will probably behave.

The biggest concern is the tunnel as it has absolutely no clearance capacity at all (it was built after the single market started)

[RedToothBrush]

So if he likes mashed potatoes for instance you could get white carrots and mash in with it.

This child has had to be coaxed to eat chips. We've just about got him to eat wedges. Still working on roasties. Mash? In my dreams!

Carrots will only be eaten grated in lasagne. Which requires tomatoes...

He likes corn on the cob of all things.

I despair of him.

[Mistigri]

Funnily enough RTB the only way my DS (15 and 3/4) will eat carrots or tomatoes is in lasagne

[RedToothBrush]

My freezer is too small to do much with. And I ran out of courgettes last week. Our fridge is wonderful big and amazingly under used. I dream of new fridge freezer with a smaller fridge and larger freezer. And to have the space for a chest freezer!

sigh

[Ta1kinPeace]

realises how lucky she is
my kids LOVE frozen peas, broccoli and carrots
and DH and I eat the other winter veg out of the garden.

RTB
I did not really eat potatoes till I was in my teens and I still loathe mash

[TatianaLarina]

For anyone who’s interested, Maugham and the Good Law Project are briefing MPs on where the Wightman case leaves Parliament - 8th January @ HoP.

In this briefing for MPs I aim to address all the difficult questions: can we revoke and reconsider, can we revoke by a motion, does Wightman help an application to extend time, and so on. Likely to sell out fast.

[Mistigri]

Mine won't eat mash.

The older one will eat instant mash potato, which she has discovered only since becoming a student and only because it is very cheap and very easy to make

Only veg DS eats regularly as a stand-alone vegetable are peas, lettuce and French beans.

[RedToothBrush]

DS would rather starve than eat veg. Or climb on the kitchen units to eat a plain slice of bread. (There are only so many places we can stash bread as we just don't have space). Or raid the cupboard for dry crackers. This is not terribly good given he's still only four.

He also refuses to eat cheese. Except if its on top of a lasagne. Or pizza.

I have managed to get him to eat home made potato gnocchi.

I cook from scratch most days (except pizza nights). Its not like I don't know how to cook or given him the opportunity to try veg.

If it was up to him he'd eat nothing but rice, bread, milk and pizza. Oh and flipping curry. As long as its not got nasty veggie lumps in it.

No tomatoes would be a disaster for me as it kills anything with a tomato sauce (and all those hidden veg).

We don't generally have crisps, sweets or chocolate in the house and I keep fruit juice to a minimum.

I generally do most of the right things. But no. He still refuses.

The summer could be an utter nightmare if we are still here and there is no deal just from this point of view.

[RedToothBrush]

I think I may become an expert in soup this year. As long as its not green soup.

[1tisILeClerc]

{This child has had to be coaxed to eat chips. We've just about got him to eat wedges. Still working on roasties. Mash? In my dreams!
Carrots will only be eaten grated in lasagne. Which requires tomatoes...
He likes corn on the cob of all things.
I despair of him.}
My mother's observation was that a child will never starve itself. Whether your nerves will take 3 days of refusal is a different matter!

[1tisILeClerc]

{As long as its not green soup.}
Food colouring might be your friend. BLUE coffee anyone?

[Buteo]

My eldest lived off chicken nuggets, chips, peas and tomato sauce for the longest time; he eats just about anything now (except sprouts), and is built like a brick outhouse. We finally got him into pizza by getting him to make his own using the ready made bases. A bread maker means making your own pizza dough is really easy.

[RedToothBrush]

We've done three days of refusals...

...then I broke.

The idea of doing longer is horrific. He's been coaxed with pieces of bread to eat soup lately which is an approach I'd rather go down.

TBH, I AM grateful he's not a burger and chicken nugget child though.

No tomatoes would make my life a lot harder though.

As I say, if I had a freezer it'd be easy.

[MarmotMorning]

My kids are the opposite. They eat veg but things like lasange and curry are the work of the devil. A Brexit stock of pasta sauces is not going to work for them.

[1tisILeClerc]

{Why does China's slowdown matter?

Serious turbulence in China now would matter a great deal more than it would have 10 or 20 years ago.
At the turn of the century, China accounted for about 7% of global economic activity. This year the figure is likely to be 19%.
And Chinese industry is closely integrated into international supply chains.
The rapid growth over the past 25 years has propelled China to second place in the league table of the world's biggest economies.
Mr Magnus says that China's economy is now so large it pretty much determines the global price of a huge range of products.
Half of all the world's steel, copper, coal and cement goes to China, as well as about half of the world's pork output and a third of its rice.
So if it isn't buying, the price is likely to fall.
DBS Bank strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow say the key issue for the global economy is "the depth of China's economic malaise".
"A steadily slowing China imparts a major drag to the world economy in any case. Add to this fears of the decline being disorderly, all other risks pale in comparison."
However, Mr Magnus says fears shouldn't be overstated: "I don't think anyone is thinking at the moment that China's economy is about to fall off a precipice, it's just that everything has come off considerably from elevated levels it has been at for the last decade or more."}
Taken from the BBC website.
The previous paragraph was talking about the difficulties with regulations and not entirely straightforward negotiations with China.
If the UK gov is banking on increasing sales to China things may not be as rosy as is being made out.
The fact that Trump is throwing a 'wobbly' and closing down bits of the government will only make matters far worse.

[RedToothBrush]

Just had a conversation with DH about the tomato issue:

Me: Tomatoes are one of the things I'm most worried about
DH: Thats ok, I can just bring them from Germany if I go there with work
Me: Won't you have to declare them?
DH: I don't care. Its not going to stop me bringing them back.
Me: So you will be smuggling suit cases full of tinned tomatoes back from business trips for the black market then?

#BrexitOpportunities

[RedToothBrush]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3470196-Westministenders-Teetering-on-the-edge?watched=1
New Thread

[Buteo]

Don’t knock chicken nuggets - good quality ones made with chicken breast and oven baked aren’t that bad! I’ve never known anyone have the mythical falafel and hummus eating toddlers, they’ve all been picky at times (my other DC survived on eggy soldiers for quite a while - he’s huge too).

[1tisILeClerc]

{So you will be smuggling suit cases full of tinned tomatoes back from business trips for the black market then?}
'Packets' are lighter than tins (more tomatoes for the weight).
'So Mr RTB, could you explain why you are carrying a 19.995Kg hand luggage containing only tomatoes and one pair of socks'

[Ta1kinPeace]

TBH Tinned tomatoes come in by ship and came in before the dear old EU
They will still come in.

and yes, home made chicken nuggets are lush (DS at uni buys reduced chicken and eats it with a ton of ketchup)

[BigChocFrenzy]

When people object to Remain because of the backlash from Leave voters, they obviously don't realise what No Deal would involve and the horrendous backlash to that

People being angry becuse politicians broke their umpteenth promise is manageable.

People being angry at shortages of their "normal" food and meds, at massive price rises,
a 1 million spike in unemployment and all those angry jobless are why the govt is rushing to organise 50,000 troops and police

^Imagine the furious reactions of any parent whose child dies because their essential meds aren't available in time
^
wrt seasonal veg:

we don't produce enough of it any more and many of the farms that used to produce it have changed to other more profitable crops.

Nowadays, we are very picky about which cuts of meat & which types of fish we eat, which is why so much meat & fish is exported to the continent.

We can't turn back that quickly to the past - if ever, because most people expect more than subsistence living

We've seen bloody riots in poor countries where the favourite foods became very expensive
- part of my Arab family were living in Egypt and fled because of food riots which spread to very bloody revolutionary riots in which anyone was a target.^

We used to have transistor radios and no electronic gadgets or internet. Impossible to go back there.
We couldn't go back to the past wrt food within a few months either ... if ever.
^
We used to be hunter gatherers as well, before the agricultural revolution.^
Not much of the current population would survive returning to tha^t