Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

[Sostenueto]

Hitler was a madman. Simply put, I know. No treaty or deal would have held with him.

[Sostenueto]

The best way to save this planet is for all humankind to die. I'm being a bit terse this afternoon, sorry!

[Quietrebel]

No sos the best way is education, especially girls' education around the world as there's a correlation between women's education levels and birth rates.

[Buteo]

sos you’re missing the point that Chamberlain bought valuable time to prepare by delaying the inevitable war with the Munich Agreement.

[frumpety]

Thanks Jas and Leclerc, that makes sense, it is also harder to police a swathe of coastline than a port. I too am surprised this hasn't happened earlier. The few stories that I can remember, involved people smugglers who were English.

[DGRossetti]

I wasn't trying to slight the Russian effort in WW2 - it was crucial and often neglected. However at the time it wasn't a given. Stalin had his own reasons for cozying up to Hitler and had events fallen differently, it's entirely possible Stalin would have left Hitler to pillage Europe in the goal of expanding communism. (Nazis crush Europe, Stalin crushes Nazis).

My personal view is that although the exact timing was unknown, US entry into the war was a given, and that (as in WW1) the sheer might of the US (literally, the country which has it all) made victory inevitable. The only risk was the Nazis developing an atomic bomb, and managing to deploy it towards a US coast - effectively keeping the US out of the war. Luckily, like most totalitarian regimes, the Nazis deep distrust of science and scientists meant they were hamstrung from the off. Thus adding to their strategic incompetence by turning down the worlds first valve computer (predating Bletchley Park by a decade).

[DGRossetti]

I sometimes wonder whether he had a particularly rosy view of the USA because his mother was American.

Or just a privileged white Englishman ?

[DGRossetti]

Why this sudden influx of migrants attempting the channel crossing by boat?

Do we know if it really is a sudden influx of migrants, or a sudden influx of reporting ?

I must admit, having noticed the spike in stories, I did wonder if France has changed the way it does something, as a foretaste of Brexit ? After all, post Brexit, pointing migrants at the UK is effectively pushing them out of the EU. I can almost hear a French voice saying Voilà à quoi ressemble la souveraineté. (only in a better accent than mine ....)

[Quietrebel]

I wonder if France has intentionally changed anything or more likelt if it's simply a case of the ministre de l'interieur (Home Secretary equivalent) being under intense scrutiny for the way the gilets jaunes crisis has been handled and diverting resources away from the coast/ ports and into problem spots like Paris and the larger French cities. I think it might be a question of resources. The UK is not constantly at the forefront of everyone else's considerations.

[Quietrebel]

Posters who live in france might have better insight!

[DGRossetti]

The UK is not constantly at the forefront of everyone else's considerations.

Hmmm. Must try harder then ....

[RedToothBrush]

So after the hurricane in Puerto Rico, Trump did nothing in terms of state relief.

Instead contracts were given to companies link to someone in the Trump administration to supply aid (which if memory serves was water and it didn't turn up). The company had no experience or previous history and seemed to have come from nowhere. Instead of doing what it was supposed to they were given lots of money by the government and did fuck all for it.

It was a fabulous example of disaster capitalist vultures corruptly running America.

Anyway...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714984
No-deal Brexit ferry contract sparks concerns

Concerns have been raised over the readiness of a British firm contracted by the government to run extra ferries in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Seaborne Freight was awarded a £13.8m contract this week to run a freight service between Ramsgate and Ostend.

The firm has never run a ferry service and a local councillor said it would be impossible to launch before Brexit.

The government said it had awarded the contract in "the full knowledge that Seaborne is a new shipping provider".

The Department for Transport said that "the extra capacity and vessels would be provided as part of its first services".

"As with all contracts, we carefully vetted the company's commercial, technical and financial position in detail before making the award," it added.

Conservative Kent county councillor Paul Messenger said it was impossible for the government to have carried out sufficient checks on the firm.

"It has no ships and no trading history so how can due diligence be done?" he asked.

Messenger said he didn't believe that it was possible to set up a new ferry service between Ramsgate and Ostend by 29 March - the date when the UK is due to leave the European Union.

The narrow berths for ships at the Port of Ramsgate mean there are only a few suitable commercial vessels, most of which are currently already in service, he said.

Ferry services have not operated from Ramsgate Port since 2013 after cross-channel operator TransEuropa collapsed, owing around £3.3m to Thanet District Council.

Mr Messenger said he was "perplexed" at the choice of Seaborne Freight to run the service.

"Why choose a company that never moved a single truck in their entire history and give them £14m? I don't understand the logic of that," he said.

There is nothing to see here.

[RedToothBrush]

www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article217959195.html
Why did FEMA give big Hurricane Maria contracts to such inexperienced bidders?

Here's a general background, but there were particular contracts where there were conflicts of interest in who authorised them...

[lonelyplanetmum]

Do we know if it really is a sudden influx of migrants, or a sudden influx of reporting ?

I was trying to figure this out too.
The slant in the reporting has changed. It's like a new story is being set up. The new aspects include focussing on Sajid Javid's alleged failures to address everything. It's almost like the press want to keep vilifying immigrants as they think that must sell papers (?).

Blaming the EU is now a pointless exercise so its almost like flailing around for s new angle?Perhaps focussing on boats is worthwhile as that is an ongoing story that can maybe continue after Brexit, and still sell papers? The old E.U. Polish etc stories presumably have to end?

[DGRossetti]

The new aspects include focussing on Sajid Javid's alleged failures to address everything.

It's hard not to feel a little sad for those that delude themselves they are somehow not the brown faces Tories hate. (Actually it's impossible to feel sorry for them ...). No amount of power stancing is going to make Javid acceptable to the core Tory demographic.

A little history would have informed him of the Sonderkommandos.

[missclimpson]

I don't know about migrants in small boats Quietrebel, but we live near Ouistreham and the number of migrants there who are trying to get on the ferries seems to have increased a lot over the past couple of years. It is a small town, there is a big police presence and the security is very tight. I suspect as Calais has got more difficult the issue has spread down the coast to the smaller ports.
The gilets jaunes issue is still there, but numbers are down and it is mostly on Saturdays, though I gather NYE may be a problem.

[HesterThrale]

On the news the other night, they interviewed a migrant who said that people traffickers had told people that they’d better go now before Brexit. (And that the weather was currently calm. And that it would cost £3000.)
Now the Brexit claim could be rubbish. Trying to convince people that the drawbridge will go up in March and it’ll be a lot harder to get in? I don’t know.

[DGRossetti]

You'd think a country with the UKs alleged seafaring prowess would be at least applauding the skills of migrants able to reach the UK by water.

(I wonder if there's any mileage in a reality show where some really extreme Brexiteers are stranded on a desert island 3,000 miles from anywhere with a dinghy, and told to find their inner Brit to rule the waves to landfall. Like Lieutenant Bligh did ....)

[DGRossetti]

Presumably, there's an incentive to get here while it's only £65 ?

[Peregrina]

but we live near Ouistreham and the number of migrants there who are trying to get on the ferries seems to have increased a lot over the past couple of years.

Yes, this confirms our own observations. We travelled via Ouistreham in 2011 and we saw no migrants at all. We came back from France this year, and a whole lot of young men were milling around, and we realised that this was what they must be.

[missclimpson]

The local papers are reporting that there are lots of Sudanese there at the moment. I think it does tend to go in waves.

[BigChocFrenzy]

That's alarming about Seaborne Freight having no experience actually running a ferry or haulage service, red

how on earth did they get the contract - smiled nicely and let a govt minister win the golf match ?
I hope they are a group of experienced pros coming together in a new firm, 🤔
but with this totally incompetent & secretive govt, we naturally wonder.

Thank goodness it's not the only "shipping/haulage" firm the govt are using for No Deal contingencies

[DGRossetti]

That's alarming about Seaborne Freight having no experience actually running a ferry or haulage service, red

What on earth are you on about ????? Really ? A British company with 100% track record and you are still not happy ! Are you personally putting the moan in remoaner ?

[jasjas1973]

Sos You may well be right about any treaty but Hitler wasn't mad in the 20s and 30s, he was very clever and manipulative, he turned a population burdened by defeat and depression into a super power.

Cutting deals & treaties with states who eradicate their populations is nothing new, we are doing it right now with Burma, China and Saudi, we are also very good at ignoring countries that commit genocide too.

I'm rather curious that despite May only being in Maidenhead, she is doing a very good job of disappearing over the migrant "crisis" and leaving an impossible task to others.

[jasjas1973]

That's alarming about Seaborne Freight having no experience actually running a ferry or haulage service

They ve also no access to any ships! reported that they got the contract so at least a UK firm was seen to benefit from brexit not just the european firms.