Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

[DGRossetti]

Sos You may well be right about any treaty but Hitler wasn't mad in the 20s and 30s, he was very clever and manipulative, he turned a population burdened by defeat and depression into a super power.

The Daily Mail fawned over him ... loads of op-ed pieces along the lines of "Why can't we have a politicians with Herr Hitlers vision and drive ?"

One of Lord Rothermeres prized possessions was a photograph of him meeting Hitler.

[DGRossetti]

I wonder if the Saudis still crucify the bodies of the beheaded ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

DG Now you're being a moaner
You know billionaire oligarchs must be allowed the freedom to do exactly as they wish
even if they use mass-murdering religious psychopaths to keep down the plebs with terror

In fact maybe because they do this - our lot want tips on how it works

[TheLazyDuchess]

I predict that Sinn Fein will push for a border poll in Ireland, and that that will incite a lot of tension, particularly come marching season. If the whole Island of Ireland does have to vote, I think the vote in the North will be very very close, 49%/51% or similar, but a majority of Southerners will vote for N.I to remain British, so it will. If the North alone decides, (as I think the GFA sets out?), then it'll be very close, and a united Ireland could certainly happen. I don't know if either outcome would end the troubles once and for all, or if it would cause another civil war. I don't think food shortages will be as dire as predicted, but that petrol and medication shortages etc could become a big problem fast. When EU farming/housing and other grantsaren't renewed, there needs to be funds available and ready to make up the deficit.

[BigChocFrenzy]

duchess I thought polls had shown a substantial majority in the RoI would support a united ireland if NI voted for it
especially if the alternative is a hard border after No Deal

[TheLazyDuchess]

I'll have a look for statistics, but word of mouth here in N.I seems to be that Ireland don't want us any more, and couldn't afford us anyway.

[Hasenstein]

It's hard not to feel a little sad for those that delude themselves they are somehow not the brown faces Tories hate. (Actually it's impossible to feel sorry for them ...). No amount of power stancing is going to make Javid acceptable to the core Tory demographic.

As an example of why they're deluded, our local Tory MP is black. I overheard a barrack-room lawyer in the local pub, who loves UKIP (once boasted "I'm a big Brexit man, me", despite being only about 5 foot tall) and before the last election was talking about how well "Treeza" was going to do, refer to our MP as Sambo. His mates just grinned and nodded.

There's a lot of arseholes out there, as Javid must surely be aware.

[BigChocFrenzy]

This tracker poll was commissioned by an Irish Senator, who compiled the first report by the Irish parliament on the issue of the reunification of Ireland.

it found currently over 73% in the RoI are favour a united Ireland

Any problems with the border and a No Deal Brexit would probably increase this

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/irish-people-united-ireland-referendum-poll

[BigChocFrenzy]

I've seen polls from last year that were 65%, but that may be Brexit concentrating minds there
on how leaving NI under UK rule is no longer automatically a safe option

[frumpety]

Anyone doing a check on Seaborne Freight ?

[TheLazyDuchess]

I didn't think it was as high as that. A united Ireland could well happpen in the not so distant future then. Will my nationallity change? Will I still be able to hold a British passport? The Euro instead of the pound, no NHS, lower benefit payments...

[BigChocFrenzy]

No Deal Brexit would be a massive game changer for NI, with a majority in favour of Reunification

If polls are correct, it would be because "soft" nationalists who had tolerated the situation were relying on the GFA and both countries' membership of the EU
plus also some Alliance & Green supporters who were Unionist would switch votes.

I've seen earlier polls saying similar, but the latest Lucid poll - this month's - shows clearly the effect No Deal could have

[jasjas1973]

France is well aware of the people selling tickets to desperate refugees. They sit in cafes openly selling them. The French choose not to do anything about it. After all they don't want them there do they?

So, having absolutely refused point blank to take refugees from the continent and now told the EU inc France to fuck off, you have the "gaul" to expect them to help us out...
You are as deluded as that idiot Charlie Elphicke MP who thinks everything will be as it was, that the french should accept the return of these refugees and the europeans will listen to our concerns, the arrogance of these fools is beyond belief.

No doubt when PSA and Airbus pull out of the UK, these clowns will still be complaining that France isn't helping us.

[bellinisurge]

Before you all get excited about a united Ireland remember that Ireland has to a) change its constitution via referendum and b) actually want it.
Ireland doesn't solve the UK's problems for it.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Lazy The RoI is pissed off with Britain, especially Westminster, but not with NI.

I've heard that love for Britain does seem - outside the DUP - rather focused on that 10 billion annual subsidy 😂
which is higher for the 1.8 million in NI than our net EU payments for 65 million in the UK

Very understandable though, not to want to lose the NHS or to have lower benefits

However, reportably the EU - and maybe to some extent GB - would keep this going
and hopefully invest to make the NI more economic and less dependent in the longterm.

Before Partition, NI especially belfast, was the powerhouse of Ireland and produced most of the wealth of the island
Hopefully, without this distortion, NI would rise again and share or exceed the same per capita wealth as the RoI

Anyway, that's all in the future
and imo without No Deal and especially without Brexit should be 20-30 years away.

I think 40 or 50 years joint rule starting asap is sensible prepping, so that there is no abrupt change to frighten the horses

[TheLazyDuchess]

Is there not some sort of claus in the Irish constitution for reunification with the six counties, if possible at any point?

If Scotland had another referendem, would the results be different? Would another one even be allowed..?

[Ta1kinPeace]

Frumpety
YUP
beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10709921
The list of directors includes NOBODY with a good track record
£35000 of fixed assets
£82000 paid to the directors in the year not through PAYE
negative balance sheet of £375k

[TheLazyDuchess]

I also predict that once everything is finalised and life goes on, once the crises is over, other countries will start leaving the EU.

[QueenieIsLost]

France is well aware of the people selling tickets to desperate refugees. They sit in cafes openly selling them. The French choose not to do anything about it. After all they don't want them there do they?

That’s also forgetting that a lot of the boats are stopped by the French Patrols at sea too. Basically stopping those boats is a JOINT effort atm.
There is nothing to say it will still be after the 29th March.

But tbh with sovereignty etc...., surely it should be up to the uk to ensure its borders are tight rather than relying on other countries?? Surely it can’t be acceptable to be so dependent, on a subject such a subject immigration and police, on the will of other countries?
It sounds crazy to go on and in about sovereignty and then expect people to do what is really a sovereign job for us

[BigChocFrenzy]

Bellini The change in their constitution, as agreed in the GFA, was to remove the automatic claim to NI

What I remember from the GFA 20 years ago is that both NI and the RoI would have to agree in a referendum that Reunification should happen.

A border poll can happen every 7 years, so I presume that the RoI would wait for there to actually be a NI vote in favour,
before holding its own vote.

However, polls even before Brexit showed that the RoI would vote yes if this happened

Rather like West Germany was definitely anxious about taking back the East which had decades of communist indoctrination and economic mismanagement.
However they didn't hesitate that they wanted their country reunited.

(Even now, nearly 30 years on, we are all still paying the Solidarity tax and in recent years we have been suffering the AfD which was basically transformed from an mc party wanting their DM back to a East-core populist anti-Muslim party that has forgotten leaving the Euro or the EU)

[borntobequiet]

In Northern Ireland, about 27% of jobs are in the public sector. In the RoI, it seems it’s less than 20%. Doesn’t look affordable, no.

[Cailleach1]

An individual jobseekers Allowance in Ireland ranges from E107 to E188 pw, depending on age and if you have dependents. You get extra for the dependents on top of that.

www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/unemployed_people/jobseekers_allowance.html#l62fd2

Jobseekers Allowance in Northern Ireland ranges from £58 to £73.10. Couples get £115. rounded up. Universal credit being rolled out too.

www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/jobseekers-allowance

Little porkie, there. Sign of the times, lies. Why don't you add Euthanasia and no right to own a pet?

[Ta1kinPeace]

One of the largest employers in Belfast is HMRC
they handle the whole of CIS and much of SA processing
and they are an absolute shower of shit

[BigChocFrenzy]

Duchess No. It pays to actually live on the continent and / to study polls about attitudes in E27 members

Since the Brexit ref - even before the dreadful mess Westminster has made of it - support for staying in the EU has risen in all EU countries

e.g. in the RoI it is about 90% in favour of EU membership
The average in other members is well over 60% in favour

Even the E27 populists don't want to leave the EU:
their beef is all about stopping Muslim NE / African immigrants and also improving their own living standards

+ The AfD no longer advocate even leaving the Euro - which is why they were originally formed - certainly not the EU.
+ Italy don't even want to leave the Euro
+ Greece don't either
+ I gather the French Front National are the same
+ Hungary and Poland are desperate to stay, because of the economic benefits - they would be toast on their own and they know it.

[Cailleach1]

Just in case anyone thinks that is the case, I am not stating Euthanasia is de rigeur or people are deprived of the company of our furry or feathered friends in Ireland. I wouldn't be surprised to see it posted, though.

If you are on welfare or low income, you can get a medical card in Ireland. So like having the NHS for general medical needs.