Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/12/2018 23:10

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
31
RedToothBrush · 18/12/2018 09:10

If its the former then I think the EU are bright enough to see through it, in which case it's pr for domestic consumption only. Or the latter applies anyway.

OP posts:
2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 18/12/2018 09:12

She’s a diabetic.... Turkeys don’t usually vote for Xmas?

< wildly clutching at straws in this shitstorm>

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 18/12/2018 09:27

Pmk. Thanks red

lonelyplanetmum · 18/12/2018 09:28

Look we are clearly heading for No deal. Ill prepared - but more and more contingency preparations happening. There's more prep for this than anything else.

What I don't get is why try to minimise this why the secrecy ?

People who've had access to the NDAs say the govt are not telling the public the extent of it to avoid panic. But I really can't reconcile this with the 'we delivering what the people wanted' stance.

Why not be open with the impact assessments from the start. Be open with the AGs advice. Be open with the plans being discussed at cabinet today.Be open with the business departures. Be open about the likely further drop in the pound. Be open about the fall in the standing of the City.Be open about the likely role of the military.

To avoid the mass panic you just say we are delivering what the people want. Keep calm. We've survived wars and rationing. Belts in. Empire. Pull together.Blah blah.

MissMalice · 18/12/2018 09:35

Place mat king.
How is it we can’t find money to house the homeless and feed the hungry but there’s always money for war and destruction Angry

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 18/12/2018 09:39

PMK. Thanks Red. Life has kept me largely away from the last few threads. It’s all moving too fast for me to keep up with whilst dealing with non-Brexit related life stuff. Hope to be able to keep up with you all on this one.

I can’t be the only person who feels their mental health is being affected by this?

prunemerealgood · 18/12/2018 09:41

My mental health is shot tbh.

bellinisurge · 18/12/2018 09:41

Thanks @RedToothBrush .
Anyone who is worried about food supply but doesn't know what to do. Head over to the Preppers Topic. You don't need to be a prepper and there is a load of sensible budget friendly advice.

DarlingNikita · 18/12/2018 09:46

The Times understands that senior government figures acknowledge that the cabinet is likely to back the option that would see no-deal preparations stepped up and centralised across Whitehall.

Why? Do they want no deal too? Or are they playing chicken back with TM to see who blinks first?

I can't even think of anything coherent to say about Labour/Corbyn this morning.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/12/2018 09:48

Chris Grey : As Brexit realities bite, Brexiter fantasies grow

since the outset the government has approached the negotiations
as if it is for the EU to come up with ways of delivering what the UK wants.

The long months in which Britain failed to table proposals is evidence of this, and of something even more problematic:

that the UK couldn’t, and still cannot, agree what it wants.

Instead, all Britain has really done is stated the things it doesn’t want and left it to the EU to fashion a deal consistent with that
– May’s deal - which is now being rejected as it is not what Britain wants!
....
The second misapprehension is that the Brexit negotiations are akin to those over, for example, the various treaties which the UK has taken part in as a continuing member state.

Thus, it is often said, negotiations will go the wire with last minute concessions made and deals done and so it will be with Brexit.

But the dynamics of the Brexit talks are nothing like this at all.

They are not a horse trade amongst 28 countries,
with the possibility of alliances between different groupings,
and with some flexibility on one issue being traded for acceptance of another, in order to get an overall settlement that all want.

Instead, they are a fairly brutal power play between one very large bloc of 27 countries with a fairly united stance on this issue,

and a single country with relatively little (not none, but not that much) leverage
because it will suffer economically far more than most of the 27
.....
If Brexiters think that this means the EU is ‘being nasty’, all that can be said is:
welcome to the real world,
and get ready for those ‘independent trade policy’ talks with the US, China and India, as well as fighting your corner in the WTO.

This is what taking back control looks like.

As Ireland has found, there is, to coin a phrase, power in a union.

lonelyplanetmum · 18/12/2018 09:54

Why? Do they want no deal too?

No the cabinet don't all want it but the others are too divided.Like parliament and like the country.

Too much division and the loony minority win.

jasjas1973 · 18/12/2018 10:05

I can't even think of anything coherent to say about Labour/Corbyn this morning

Labour are becoming a laughing stock, even hardened Labourites can see the Tories are running rings around them.

JC needs to step aside or support a Revoke/PV, he needs to realise Labours job is to oppose not support the Tories in ruining the country.

As the saying goes "You can't run with the Hare and the Hounds"

PostNotInHaste · 18/12/2018 10:07

PMK. Can I ask a question, could someone explain to me what the situation with Corbyn is - is there absolutely no way that he can be got rid of ? Apologies for being so badly informed but i was just thinking about it and he is such a massive part of the problem on a number of levels.

GD12 · 18/12/2018 10:08

This is a great(scary) thread.

twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1074965545966071808?s=19

DarlingNikita · 18/12/2018 10:09

JC needs to step aside or support a Revoke/PV, he needs to realise Labours job is to oppose not support the Tories in ruining the country.

Yes. Unfortunately though he's too stubborn and deluded to step aside. And he won't support Revoke/PV because he's a Leaver too.

TatianaLarina · 18/12/2018 10:20

For all the increasing threats of No Deal, there are reports that the ERG are changing their tactics and falling in with May and even the WA.

i think it’s quite possible that the ERG start supporting May's deal just to ensure Brexit happens and there's no No Confidence, GE or 2nd ref which could fuck Brexit.

From the Brexiteers POV it makes sense to get the WA through so we can leave the EU, get into transition rather than risking panicking the country and the plug being pulled on the whole thing.

They then think UK can renege on any terms set out in the WA, aside from the backstop, because none of it dictates our future trade relationship.

Their plan is a trade deal with US and maybe join CPTPP to be in direct competition with EU and gain a backdoor entry into the Single Market via an open border in Ireland.

The backstop doesn’t just stop the Tories reneging it protects the SM.

The votes (on May's deal, or the vote of confidence in May, or vote of confidence in government) will boil down to the DUP (i.e. whether they'd really vote for the backstop) and the Tory rebels - Grieve, Soubry, Greening, Wollaston, etc.

May has played a blinder in postponing the vote. If it had gone ahead last week I think it would have been defeated. But she’s bought herself time to make the ERG and the rebel Tories think and scare everyone with No Deal.

HesterThrale · 18/12/2018 10:43

I don’t get why the government may be using the threat of walking away with no deal to scare the EU into making concessions on the WA. Because:
A) We'll be hurt more than them by a crash out.
B) They know we could push and threaten this until the last minute, and then pull a Revoke.

And all of this creates such bad feeling and mistrust between the two sides, it’ll takes years to repair, and the EU will think twice about doing trade deals with the UK in future.

howabout · 18/12/2018 10:47

Tatiana I agree with a lot of what you say , except that I assume the ERG are banking on the DUP blocking the Backstop and either the EU blinking or No Deal.

The DUP hold all the cards which is why they would hardly have been likely to vote No Confidence to provoke a GE atm.

TheElementsSong · 18/12/2018 10:48

This is a great(scary) thread.

All Singham’s utter bollocks and bald faced lies in that article are painfully familiar, as I’ve seen them (sometimes verbatim) posted by Leavers here on MN.

GD12 · 18/12/2018 10:49

Isn't he a government advisor?!

Quietrebel · 18/12/2018 11:05

Interesting article giving perspective from the other side of the Channel (link below for those who can read French). Sad and concerned is the main sentiment.

www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/le-brexit-est-populiste-et-adieu-a-2018-801457.html

The last paragraph translated here:

No nation can ever fully isolate itself. At the height of its power Britain itself had to find allies to defeat Napoleon and the Kaiser! Only through forging alliances can any nation let its ideals be heard and its economy prosper [...]

Brexit is a troublesome mix of populism and nationalism peppered with despair and mistrust. It is the latest embodiment of European demons. If it turns out to be for Britain the equivalent of a major military defeat, if indeed it turns into the English Waterloo, our entire continent will suffer - just as WWI sounded the knell of European domination and gave rise to the might of America.

Apileofballyhoo · 18/12/2018 11:10

Yes to whoever said about mental health - and I'm Irish, living in Ireland, nowhere near the border and my only interest in NI is to protect the GFA.

I think this morning that the WA is likely to go through but that the transition period is likely to end in a type of no deal anyway. As in, out of the SM and out of the CU. There'll be no Norway++. Because no matter what you do there's an obsession with ending FMoP, and there's an obsession with not being dictated to by the EU regarding laws and regulations. The people who want free rein to ruin the UK in order to make more money are expert manipulators.

I'm actually beginning to think you'd be better off with a sudden No Deal now that might make people wake up and want to remain/rejoin, rather than a drip drip effect where things get slowly and steadily worse - like, for example, the NHS.

Obviously, no deal is disastrous. But the WA is guaranteeing you nothing. I've a feeling Rees Mogg is quite happy with what he can do to it.

I'm not confident the back stop will hold indefinitely, and I'm not confident the UK will uphold EU standards on food and goods indefinitely.

Drip. Drip. Drip. Everything being eroded.

We've already seen what a small group of fanatics are able to do.

Apileofballyhoo · 18/12/2018 11:15

Quietrebel yes to that article. I keep thinking of Germany in the 1930s.

Buteo · 18/12/2018 11:20

To change the subject a little, our old friend 10Degrees is popping up again under a new name Hmm

1tisILeClerc · 18/12/2018 11:45

It would be fascinating to know what the spreadsheets of those behind the scenes have in terms of likely deaths from these various scenarios.
Like a commander taking troops into battle they would work out roughly how many will get killed and wounded. Of course you have to dissociate any feelings you might have from what you are planning.
It reminds me of the comment on here a couple of months back where a poster's relative was involved in locating positions for mass graves in the UK. Although totally unthinkable to us here and now but the likes of Idi Amin, Pol Pot and others would 'sort out' NI by mass slaughter. It is happening now in Yemen and elsewhere and the UK was certainly up for it in India and many other places in the not so distant past. Beyond a certain point governments are not as 'civilised' as we would hope. I can't remember where I saw it but there was a plan suggested in the very early '70's to remove one part of the NI community to stop the fighting between them. Bosnia is in trouble with the EU for trying to do this currently.
Somewhere there are spreadsheets for all of this mess and we are just numbers.