Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

So, I don't think it's a bluff

May's Plan A = the WA
but her Plan B - probably = NO Deal

I can understand gambling she'll blink on 29 March and put the country first.
That's just risk assessment we're all doing and we'll stop gambling at different dates in 2019

However, I'm really puzzled why a Remainer would genuinely prefer a No Deal to a WA, which at worst would bring the backstop,
i.e. rUK with CU + the SM rules, workers's rights, health & safety, environmental rules

No Deal means the govt can just sign up to Trump's very one-sided FTA, roll back all those rights and sell off the NHS

Many non-EU goods are purchased in dollars, or sometimes Euros, so will be more expensive if Sterling crashes after No Deal

{Yes- given time, we could have expanded our ports to bypass Rotterdam.}
This may not be necessary as the chance of a significant economic collapse must be getting pretty high and EU JIT manufacturing may well close down, certainly reducing capacity. BMW (?) have already said it is having it's maintenance break starting 30 March. They won't be needing ferries for a few weeks.

Did anyone just watch C4 news speaking to the customs agents at Dover? They said it would be "armageddon" in the event of a no deal.

Pah, what do they know? They're just experts. Also now traitorous Remoaners who are Talking Britain Down with Project Fear.

What we should do is ask some of the numerous MN Leave posters, who know that it's going to be fiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnneeee just using the power of BeLeaving.

I posted these No Deal stats a few threads ago ... No Deal would be a catastrophe

A no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis

the Bank of England has warned.

That looks like a Depression, not just a bad recession 😱

www.bbc.com/news/business-46377309

• The UK economy could shrink by 8% in 2019 < holy fuck, 1% would be bad >

• ^GDP would take until nearly 2024 to return to current level

• Unemployment would rise to 7.5%^

• ^Inflation would rise to 6.6%

• House prices would fall by 30%^
  commercial property prices collapse by 48%.

• The pound could fall by 25%

R North (comment #200)

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87068#comment-4216339094

"If EU trade collapses and we suffer knock-on effects, < and we don't roll over non-EU deals >
the consequences could be far worse that the BoE indicates

Its basic problem is you cannot model chaos.

And if that is the result of a "no deal" Brexit,
we could end up hoping that Carney's predictions were right."

^^^Or even the national Union of farmers also on C4 news who said a no deal would be catastrophic.

Well fuck me, fuck you and fuck the nation.

Fucktastic fuckaster

And er fuck.

Was this why the cons were banging on about mental health a lot? They knew the suicide rate is likely to increase?

(Say it with me sucide is a permanent solution for a transient and temporary situation. There is a place for everyone and no matter how bad you feel this to shall pass.)

{More than £2 billion Brexit preparation funding awarded to departments for a successful EU exit}
To me that sounds a bit weird as I usually think of an 'award' for a beauty pageant or something, not as a way of stopping the UK crashing into oblivion.

{+ The UK economy could shrink by 8% in 2019 < holy fuck, 1% would be bad >}
I remember leavers 'crowing' that Germany is about to collapse as their sales projections (I think) were down by 0.8%. I think the growth was 'only' 1.2% and had been predicted as 2%.

Whether or not the EU has a trade deal with Sri Lanka (or any other clothes-producing country) is largely irrelevant. If there is an EU trade deal which we don't replicate then you may see import duty increase to 12% for clothing. But that's 12% of the wholesale price paid by the importer - which is likely to be pennies for a cheaply-made school skirt. All the costs are in the distribution and merchandising. If Asda want to hit a £4 selling price for a skirt then they're not going to increase the cost to £4.10 just because they've had to pay import duty on it.

Except that's not how it works. Tariffs for clothing is by weight. The current WTO tariff for skirts from Sri Lanka is £13 per kg. So around £6.50 per imported skirt. That Asda school skirt is now more than double the price at £10.50.

School trousers from Sri Lanka have a higher tariff. They'll be going up by around £10 a pair.

You're right, bollocks
I remember R North posting that WTO tariffs for most textiles are by kg and quite significant for cheaper items

Also of course, add in that many imports aren't in Sterling, so currency devaluation would push up the UK price too

You seem to be assuming that if the WA is refused, either she or - if they are legally able - the HoC will suddenly Revoke
There is no sign at the moment that May intends to and no sign that there is a large number of MPs prepared to do so

I don't assume anything! the last 3 years have taught us that & with this lot in power, anything could and will happen.

As i understand it, she is time limited, if she losses the vote, she has 14 or 21 days to come back with something else, if cannot get the deal re written... what will that "something else" be? PV? Revoke? extension?
she is a bully and will stop at nothing, she is very probably mentally ill.

Once her deal is through, we are out and into a blind and possibly endless brexit.

I thought after Thatcher no politician could bring out such feelings of dislike but May is far far worse than MT.

What happened to the thread about Not Prepping? Did it get poofed because it was just too ill-tempered?

Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes

what the Treasury says the cash is for:

The five biggest Brexit preparation allocations confirmed today are received by
Home Office (£480m), Defra (£410m), HMRC (£375m), BEIS (£190m) and the Department for International Trade (£128m)
....
More border guards.
Cash for the EU settlement scheme.
Keep food supplies going.
A new gps satellite system (!)

{ she has 14 or 21 days to come back with something else, if cannot get the deal re written..}
She and the rest of the government and HoC obviously haven't read the memo and repeated statements by the EU for the last 3 months that the WA in her hands is IT, There is NO MORE.

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford
BREAKING

I'm told migration white paper IS coming tomorrow.

It will confirm:

* 12 month visas for low-skilled workers with no access to benefits or right to bring family members
* Tier 2 cap to be lifted for doctors etc
* EU students can stay on for 6 months after graduating

Not clear how they've resolved issue of a £30k minimum salary threshold for skilled workers, which Philip Hammond & Greg Clark were concerned about. Suggestion figure itself could be put out for consultation for 12 months.

jas If her WA does not pass in January, she can continue waiting for someone else to blink

I don't know if the 14-21 days are legally binding until the court case is resolved
and if so, No Deal is an outcome she can choose

Who can force revoke ?

maybe the HoC - if they have the courage / will, which they currently don't
AND if Jo Maugham wins his Scottish case in time to say how - the govt will presumably appeal.

Most political analysts in the Uk and in the EU put the chance of No Deal at 50-90%, e.g. the European Policy centre wonk I quoted
and they seem to think she can run out the time being stubborn

The obvious thing she can come up with is say she will keep trying to negotiate with the EU

The fact that they won't negotiate doesn't stop this being a legally acceptable option for her to state to the HoC

However, I'm really puzzled why a Remainer would genuinely prefer a No Deal to a WA, which at worst would bring the backstop,

No Remainer wants No Deal, but the backstop is absolutely not the worse the WA would bring. It’s hard bloody Brexit.

It essentially declares the UK leaving the CU-SM and aiming for FTA where nothing is guaranteed or certain.

The hard right are in control. Sure you can hope that a moderate Tory might replace May, but it might be Gove or Raab. They might win the next election. And if Corbyn gets in he still doesn’t want the EU or the single market anyway.

May has taken the ERG headbanger approach all along - we are leaving the CU, the SM, no fees, no ECJ, end of FoM, no CAP, no CFP, own trade deals, take back control of our laws, money, borders, fish, brexit means brexit, yadda yadda.

If we accept this very bad deal we will very likely get stuck in the backstop for many years because it while the FTA is negotiated. So 4-8 years.

The UK-wide backstop is a barebones customs union where UK has no say over anything (rules, trade deals, etc). It requires the EU to agree before UK can leave the backstop.

May tells everyone that the backstop will never be required because she deludedly thinks FTAs can deliver customs-free frictionless trade.
There isn't one FTA in existence which does that. It requires CU-SM.
Under FTA, the original NI backstop will still be required, where only NI stays in CU-SM.

Labour wants the future trade framework model to be based on the CU model. But Corbyn is stuck in non SM cake and eat it land. So fuck knows where that will end up.

The WA declares all the things that will all end after transition - which would be the default position, because A50 states that the
treaties will cease to apply. It's just that the WA makes it pretty clear that they won't re-apply either because UK is not seeking that type of deal.

The lack of commitment to any sensible future relations job should have your alarm bells ringing.

Supporting hard Brexit and leaving the EU in the faint hope that it might ar some future point become soft Brexit is potentially disastrous.

Who can force revoke ?

The HoC.

tatiana The backstop is what prevents a hard Brexit and why the ERG hate it

The backstop means the Uk stay in the CU and GB have to obey all the SM rules I posted - workers' rights, environment etc

That rules out Canada+ or a US FTA or anything but SM+CU

Read the WA

Tatiana We don't yet know how the HoC can Revoke
Until the Jo Maugham case is resolved, asking about how, MPs won't know what to do

We don't know when - if ever - there will be a majority of MPs who are prepared to do this

BCF - 3 things, a no deal screws the GFA, does she really want to be responsible for that?
Also, she risks the tory party splitting and electoral oblivion.

Then there is changes in public opinion.. Peter Kellner has been quiet in saying public opinion has changed much.
infacts.org/polling-shows-growing-support-for-staying-in-eu/?fbclid=IwAR1eT7YC1Cc5jCBcdo-KI2xOvgSxFfhqCWU2rBr3SnTEE2j6_xDvqaHbRuA

Look, no one knows the future but for me, i'd rather leave on no deal now than go through all of this for the next 2 years and still end up in the same situation, at least now she is PM and we can all see its her that is causing this and hold her responsible.

The backstop is what prevents a hard Brexit and why the ERG hate it

No. This is hard Brexit. Plus a backstop.

It’s as close to hard Brexit as you can get with the demands of the Irish border.

We are heading for leaving NI in the backstop CU-SM -and for a Canada style FTA which does not deliver frictionless trade. That’s where the Tories want us to go.

The headbanger Tories think UK can renege on any terms set out in the WA, backstop aside, because none of it dictates our future trade relationship.

Their goal is a US trade deal and maybe CPTPP to be in direct competition with EU. (And gain a backdoor entry into the Single Market via the border in Ireland.)

The backstop doesn’t just protect NI/Ireland it protects the SM.