Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

The main issues are of course the Dover Calais route for RoRo freight not containers brought in elsewhere.
Whether ASDA's school uniforms arrive by container to UK direct or to Rotterdam perhaps then road is unknown.

The major upside to having the military take over (apart from the defense secretary himself) would be at least they would have a plan and be able to carry it out in a disciplined fashion.

Pmk

NO. Goods from outside the EU don't generally arrive on lorries or on ferries to start with and importantly
You have already been told that plenty of row trade comes in via Europe - and that none essential stuff comes by land and sea.

it usually doesn't really matter if they sit in a container terminal for an extra couple of days
No - school uniform can sit in a container for 6 months if it has to. But the fact that is all trapped somewhere in transit - and not in stores- shortens supply. When supply is short - prices go up. And there's none to buy - because it's sat in a container.
If we had been sensible, we could have worked around these teething problems and it could have all been sorted. But a crash out means all these problems land on us like a ton of bricks on March 30th.

Looks fun...

So for the second time this year we’re about to enter a holiday period with the promise of no deal details to be released shortly. It was the technical notices to be distributed at the end of the summer announced at the start of it. Now as lots of people gearing up for time off work more details to be released, just not on Christmas Day.

Assumably they are hoping for family warfare over the Turkey , I pity A and E departments.

What I don't understand is why have they specified not on christmas day?
Are they planning a steady drip drip of info everyday (so we don;t get it all at once and panic?) - but with a christmas truce... or is it 'at some point soon - but definitely not xmas day', in which case - why add that last bit?

FT: Port of Rotterdam reveals scale of Brexit challenge

Some goods from non-EU countries DO come to Rotterdam, then are sent on to the UK.
Looks like up to 20bn worth of goods

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6</a>

UK will no longer be able to rely on giant Dutch facilities when it leaves EU
....
The Dutch port, which processes 461.2m tonnes of cargo overall each year, is a principal point of entry for goods headed for destinations throughout the EU - including the UK, just 140 miles away.

“English ports are not equipped with the same facilities as Rotterdam, which is why most of it comes here,”
says Ricardo Rackwitz, the site’s commercial manager...

“It’s actually quicker to send it here first.
Then we put it on pallets and send 10 or 12 per cent of it on to the UK.”

But according to the Office for National Statistics,
as much as half of the Netherlands’ annual €40bn goods exports to the UK come from third countries.

It keys into war footing psyche ie, cessation of fighting on Christmas Day between German and English and the football match.

Also, the UK has a problem with port capacity - it has been relying on the much bigger EU ports for importing non-EU goods too:

If things arrive at Rotterdam and are then transferred to the UK by lorry it's just because there's currently no reason not to do that. It's an option that can be used. They don't have to come via Rotterdam though. We've just got used to there being nothing to stop us doing that.

There is no issue at all with capacity to get containerised freight in and out of the country (apart from possible issues with HMRC's new computer system), it's literally just an issue of those few minutes delay at the port for every vehicle and that's not an issue for containerised goods.

She is bullying uk/MPs into worry and concern, then accept her fucking shite deal and judging by this thread, she is doing a great number on us all :(

Is there really that much spare capacity at Uk ports to suddenly take over what Rotterdam and other EU ports norally do for us ?

I thought UK ports were all pretty much already running at full - because it wouldn't be economic otherwise

The goods are sent to Rotterdam because they have the capacity, storage, IT systems, customs officials etc

I doubt if it's as easy as you claim to suddenly "find" all this spare capacity and infrastructure

Oh by the way, only 5% of people think the army being brought in to deal with No Deal is 'very likely'. If you add the 13% who think its 'fairly likely, you are only up to 18%.

I did read on one of these surveys a while ago that most people think 'no deal' means nothing changes, we just leave the EU but as we haven't made a new deal, nothing changes.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-17/eu-to-rule-out-managed-no-deal-as-bloc-boosts-brexit-planning
EU to Rule Out ‘Managed No-Deal’ as Bloc Boosts Brexit Planning

Did anyone just watch C4 news speaking to the customs agents at Dover? They said it would be "armageddon" in the event of a no deal.

Considering they are currently trying to turn the motorway in Kent into a lorry park (probably won't be ready by March) and have the army on stand by to help deliver essential goods and keep the peace (riots caused by shortages) I'm going out on a limb and suggesting that the govt do not believe we have the infrastructure necessary to make the changes required - nor will we have them in place by March.

Yes- given time, we could have expanded our ports to bypass Rotterdam. We don't have time - so everything that was coming to us via Rotterdam is now going to be stuck in a logjam somewhere.

I don't imagine building up port capacity is a quick job. That's a long time of shortages.

... so it might just make sense to buy growing children clothing essentials in a bigger size now before the shit hits the fan. After all - even if everything goes swimmingly, those clothes can still be worn.

jas You seem to be assuming that if the WA is refused, either she or - if they are legally able - the HoC will suddenly Revoke.
There is no sign at the moment that May intends to and no sign that there is a large number of MPs prepared to do so.

It looks like she's trying her hardest to get her deal thorugh and will keep trying until time runs out,
because there is always the 1/100 chance the EU will blink and the much larger chance that the HoC will.

However, both she and the Tory MPs realise that Revoke means a Tory civil war
and the voters punishing them too - it's easier to put the blame for No Deal on the EU than Revoke and all the money wasted & jobs lost for nothing

Since many Russians also are fully conversant in English, even the ones that aren't hacking the internet, I bet Mr Putin and friends are absolutely pi$$ing themselves with mirth at this self inflicted stupidity.
Why use the army when he could shout 'BOO' and take the UK over the edge.