Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

Jas That's where our opinions differ - the WA does NOT leave us in the same situation
Many Leavers call it BRINO or Remain- for this reason

Any trade deal would have to satisfy the RoI / EU that there would be no increased hardness of the NI border
That means no risk of non-compliant goods coming in from GB

To satisfy this, the Uk would either have to agree to an Irish Sea border - which I accept a future Labour govt might do -
or ensure that all GB goods are compliant with EU rules - which means CU+SM

If there is no deal, then we revert to the backstop, which is CU+all the SM trade rules, but no FOM - which is a blow
However, the economic impact annually would be to reduce the rate of growth, not to cause disaster.

Also, in all circumstances, we would be cooperating with the EU, so they will negotiate on things we need,
unlike No Deal when they will just prep for themselves and ignore our needs.

If the UK renege on the backstop, they would have broken this treaty with the EU
There would be no FTA with the EU

The UK's international reputation would be hammered
probably no FTA with anyone else - even with the USA, Congress has to approve any FTA and the Irish Lobby would block it.

It is always possible that the govt chooses to make the Uk a paraiah, but it is very far from a certainty

No Deal is a certainty

We don't yet know how the HoC can Revoke

No we don’t know how yet, but we know that it can.

The government has formally recognised that the HoC can demand to revoke art50. Maugham is currently working on precisely how.

There is not a majority of MPs who want to revoke yet, but the majority of MPs don’t want No Deal. Faced with that, the situation changes.

Unless they want to be dealing with a state of national emergency.

Just watching Sky News at 9pm, first proper chance I've had today. Talk of and potential prep for No Deal seems to have massively increased today.

I'd agree with some pp's that it's brinkmanship with the EU that we make a big show of saying 'look we're going to do it, we really are, we're spending loads of money now preparing' whilst crossing our fingers behind our backs and hoping to goodness that they'll offer us something.

Never have been played a more dangerous game though as of course the EU could well say 'go on then if you think you're hard enough' and we're utterly fucked.

Or it goes further and further along the track, and we let TM's deal through.

What an absolute nightmare every which way.

if the UK renege on the backstop, they would have broken this treaty with the EU

I didn’t say anything about reneging on the backstop.

tatiana You are gambling that enough MPs will act to revoke

• and that the various courts agree how they can do this, in time -

and yet you also gamble - when saying the WA means No Deal
that these same MPs will definitely choose to make the UK a pariah before June 2022 by abandoning the backstop^

That's illogical !

The backstop is that the whole UK stays in the CU
and that while NI also stays in the SM, that GB copies all the trade rules of the SM but not FOM

That is not "hard Brexit" to me, because those rules specifically include all the EU workers' rights, health & safety, consumer rights, environmental law, FOOD STANDARDS etc

because the EU insisted on this, to keep a level playing field for their manufacturers

The "bonfire of red tape / rights" the ERG want can't happen, because of the backstop

The US FTA cannot happen, because of the SM food standards -
the US have stated they will never sign one that does not allow in all their chlorinated chicken, hormone-ridden beef, their generally lower standards of food safety

With a No Deal, the UK is not bound by any EU rules and the ERG can push through their bonfire of rights

The backstop is Remain minus mainly these things:
FOM, not totally frictionless trade but JIT expected to be acceptable (general business opinion anyway), some ECJ protections, being able to vote in the EU

It would definitely reduce the growth in GDP, but not hammer the economy anywhere like No Deal would

So, definitely inferior to Remain, but far superior to the economic disaster and probable bonfire of red tape in No Deal

You are gambling that enough MPs will act to revoke

I am not gambling on anything. I have zero power in this situation.

I am saying the WA is very bad and should be voted and down. We know there is a majority in Parliament against No Deal. So if the WA is voted down the only course left is to avoid No Deal.

^and yet you also gamble - when saying the WA means No Deal
that these same MPs will definitely choose to make the UK a pariah before June 2022 by abandoning the backstop^

The WA should be voted down and then art50 revoked.

I’ve never said anything about abandoning the backstop. The backstop essentially means that if May and the Tories get the FTA they want, after transition NI stays behind in the CU SM.

Yes, there is a risk that the govt could accept the dmage to our reputation and withdraw from the WA later
but they would then definitely NOT get an FTA with the EU, or cooperationon all the other things we need

There is a greater risk with Revoke, that the govt would Invoke A50 again in a year or two, once they are better prepared

Several Leavers online have suggested this immediately after the ECJ, as the best way to get a better Brexit deal,
or to ignore A50 and just keep pushing for better Brexit terms while within the EU by blocking everything until the EU agrees.

and iirc our own howabout wants to do this as well now !

Is there really that much spare capacity at Uk ports to suddenly take over what Rotterdam and other EU ports norally do for us ?

Yes. In fact a lot of freight from the Far East arrives here before being shipped on to mainland EU. Apparently our Customs are a bit slack and it's easier to get away with under-declaring here than it is in Rotterdam.

Think about it and there's an obvious answer to your question. If a small percentage of goods are landed at Rotterdam and then brought over through the congested Channel ports then we're already landing those goods here. If they arrive direct at Felixstowe or Tilbury then it's merely a more efficient operation (container vs lorry at the port), the same quantity of goods have been landed.

And generally, in the absence of a trade deal, there'd be a good reason not to ship to us via the EU anyway - it just adds another step of admin into the import process.

AAAAAAAAAAAARGH

That is all.

tatiana The backstop means that the Tories can NOT get the FTA they want, or the bonfire of workers' rights, environmental law etc they want

because the backstop requires them either have to have a border in the Irish Sea - which Unionists will veto -

or - the only other way - GB has to keep all the SM rules & standards for food, trade, the environment, workers' rights

That rules out a USA FTA
It protects many of our EU rights except FOM

Fishes If it would be a better system to land directly at British ports, WHY do you think it is not being done now ?

The important thing about the NI backstop is that it does NOT just set down conditions for NI

• unless we have checks in the irish Sea -

The backstop also sets strict SM rules for GB as well: for food standards, trade, workers rights, environment etc
all of which totally frustrate the hard right dream for the UK

Yes, there is a risk that the govt could accept the dmage to our reputation and withdraw from the WA later

They don’t withdraw from the withdrawal agreement, the agreement is wrt withdrawal. It determines the transition period, and what happens if a trade deal is not reached at the end of the transition period.

BCF, yep you are correct, i was looking at the backstop, originally proposed, as a NI only solution.

I need to pay attention !

However, like you i would be highly sceptical the UK would honor it for long, not a wholesale disregard but something more underhand and deniable, regardless, with her deal we are into 2 to 4 years of negotiations and argument, possibly leading to a backstop that isn't and blaming the EU if they try an enforce the border!

Damage to our reputation?

That horse has bolted. In fact the horse that has bolted is on the ship that has sailed and all of them are up shit creek with no paddles.

The headbangers wanted a US FTA on their terms( or rather the US’s) which the backstop prevents. May and her mates want a Canada style FTA with EU which will not deliver frictionless trade.

The WA takes us out of the Single Market after transition - no more free movement of services, capital or workers, no financial services passport, no agencies membership (euratom, EMA/medicines, EASA/aviation, etc), no direct access to European Arrest Warrant, Europol, Eurojust, Schengen SIS criminal databases.

It would leave NI only in the backstop, and will give tariff-free trade between GB & EU but not customs-free frictionless trade in goods, and we'd lose all our current trade deals.

@Steven_Swinford

More on Cabinet forever known as The One Where They Killed Unicorns in Telegraph's 1,200 word recon:

• Hancock asked whether medicine or food shld be prioritised on Brexit ferries

• Lidington said no deal focus means Tories will breach manifesto pledges

t.co/Y2gPbWARLE

Die from starvation or lack of medicine, which one?

Tatiana The WA is a treaty that would be signed by both parties, if we do.
After this, the only way to avoid the backstop is to withdraw from that treaty and face the consequences

Maybe, like jas, you overlooked the fact that the backstop also places most SM rules on GB, not just NI

The WA states that the 3 prerequisites are agreed and that there will be a transition period during which we would
either
negotiate a trade deal that the RoI / EU agree does not increase the hardness of the NI border
or
if we can't, then the backstop applies

The EU will NOT agree any deal that

• either violates the NI border
• or allows non-compliant goods into their SM
• or puts EU business at a disadvantage by the UK abolishing expensive rights embedded within the SM

BOTH these conditions mean:
either
full checks on goods travelling from GB to NI - which would be vetoed by Unionists
or
full SM rules for GB - not just NI - for food, trade, workers rights, environment etc
which totally frustrate hard right plans

Tatiana The WA is a treaty that would be signed by both parties, if we do.
After this, the only way to avoid the backstop is to withdraw from that treaty and face the consequences

Maybe, like jas, you overlooked the fact that the backstop also places most SM rules on GB, not just NI

The WA states that the 3 prerequisites are agreed and that there will be a transition period during which we would
either
negotiate a trade deal that the RoI / EU agree does not increase the hardness of the NI border
or
if we can't, then the backstop applies

The EU will NOT agree any deal that

• either violates the NI border
• or allows non-compliant goods into their SM
• or puts EU business at a disadvantage by the UK abolishing expensive rights embedded within the SM

BOTH these conditions mean:
either
full checks on goods travelling from GB to NI - which would be vetoed by Unionists
or
full SM rules for GB - not just NI - for food, trade, workers rights, environment etc
which totally frustrate hard right plans

The backstop is for the whole of the UK to remain in CU for a limited period after the end of the transition period, while an FTA is negotiated.

May tells everyone that the backstop will never be required
because she thinks FTAs can deliver customs-free frictionless trade.
But there is no FTA that does that. It requires CU-SM. Thus under an FTA, the NI backstop is required.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
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