Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

Similar problem re the hoC as re the PM:

Even with the power_ to revoke, is there the will_ to do so ? 🤔

I can't believe they are going to let this happen. I just can't. I know they're utterly shite and all but surely even the most inept, thick as pig shit politicians must have the capacity to know that this can't happen.

they couldn't write this as a film

www.vox.com/2018/12/15/18142226/hbo-brexit-leave-campaign-dominic-cummings

If you go into the BBC or Sky twitter feeds and see the amount of people wanting a no deal, it's insane, it's literally bonkers. People just don't get it and if there was a 2nd referendum, I'd have no confidence of a remain win. What a disaster.

From Mail online:
{Britain told to prepare for no deal DOOMSDAY: Thousands of troops on standby, ferries to ship in emergency supplies and millions of families told 'get ready' as ministers activate ALL Brexit backup plans with 101 days to go}

Leavers VOTED for this WANT it and are angry because it hasn't happened yet!

I stand corrected missmalice 😂

Not yet clear how / if (with court cases ongoing) the HoC can order the PM to Revoke

That’s what we’re waiting for.

Or do you think that the manufacturers in Sri Lanka, the haulage companies, or the supermarkets will absorb the additional costs out of the goodness of their hearts?

Do you think haulage companies bring clothes from Sri Lanka by road through Europe then?

Goods coming from outside the EU will be handled in exactly the same way as they are today. They're already subject to exactly the customs procedures they'll be subject to after Brexit.

It's time-sensitive transport between the EU and the UK which will potentially have problems, not containerised goods arriving from the rest of the world.

They're already subject to exactly the customs procedures they'll be subject to after Brexit.

Do we trade with Sri Lanka/all other countries that supply clothes on WTO terms then? Or do we have a trade deal as an EU member?

And actually some shipments from Asia do indeed come into Germany and then by road into UK. I used to work for courier company. Urgent shipments came by plane, non urgent by ship/road.

Do you think haulage companies bring clothes from Sri Lanka by road through Europe then?

no. They think (and are quite correct) that there are only a finite amount of ports in Britain. Regardless of where goods originate, they can only enter Britain through these same ports. When lorries, which come from the EU and so used to be able to roll straight off a ferry and not have checks, have to be stopped - each lorry for minutes at a time (that's being optimistic time wise) this will create a backlog. All lorries coming through the ports- regardless of where they originated - will get caught up in this back log.

Sorry - why are we not supposed to continue with the leavers are thick rhetoric again?

A lot of UK imports from RoW come via the Port of Rotterdam, then by road through EU countries and finally ro-ro over the Channel

Also, UK ports may be logjammed if there is No Deal
or at least only accepting essential supplies

The EU no deal planning refers to drivers permits and the quotas so there won't be anything like the number of truck drivers able to get directly from driving in Europe then continuing in the UK. It was referenced a while back and I have a feeling that the quota would drop the numbers to about a fifth. Probably expressing this incorrectly but basically there are big problems of a 'mind the gap' nature.

So in short - there's a lot of reasons why no deal brexit might affect a lorry load of imported goods from Sri Lanka? Huh - who'd a thunk it?

The EU has no reason to increase the number of UK drivers permits - EU drivers can take over any goods vehicles at the port.
This screws UK haulage firms of course,

Do we trade with Sri Lanka/all other countries that supply clothes on WTO terms then? Or do we have a trade deal as an EU member?

The two things aren't mutually exclusive, trade deals are within the WTO framework and have the effect of modifying our basic WTO tariffs.

Whether or not the EU has a trade deal with Sri Lanka (or any other clothes-producing country) is largely irrelevant. If there is an EU trade deal which we don't replicate then you may see import duty increase to 12% for clothing. But that's 12% of the wholesale price paid by the importer - which is likely to be pennies for a cheaply-made school skirt. All the costs are in the distribution and merchandising. If Asda want to hit a £4 selling price for a skirt then they're not going to increase the cost to £4.10 just because they've had to pay import duty on it.

This is one of those moments where you go 'Just when I thought it couldn't get any worse, you come up with something.

You all ready for this one?

You sure?

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
5pm Cabinet puts troops at the ready for no-deal Brexit - with lots more details of cabinet discussions

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4d17f6ea-02e5-11e9-83a9-aa6bb81799a5
Cabinet puts thousands of troops at the ready to deal with no‑deal Brexit

No surprises there, really for any of us, but its something to see it in writing.

Anyway, thats not the worst of it...

You ready?

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
What will no deal be like?

Last week I obtained an internal Whitehall document suggesting they would prepare for a rise in suicides in the event of no deal.

See here:
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-suicide-warning-if-exit-turns-chaotic-rjlhwb2n0
Brexit: Suicide warning if exit turns chaotic

One of the long term contingency plans is to: "Create a strategy with (other departments) - handling the negative impacts (eg homelessness, poverty and suicide)" Source: DWP

It comes from a leaked copy of "EU Exit Planning - Economic Downturn" from December 6 A DWP spokesman declined to comment

If only all these people just thought about the "Sunny Uplands" of Brexit, then there wouldn't be more suicides. 'Project Fear' obviously will be responsible for driving people over the edge.

PMK

Thanks again Red

Are there a lot of spare EU drivers just hanging around waiting to take over British lorries, though? Don't they have their own goods vehicles to haul? Sure, they can employ some more people - but our shortfall of permitted drivers is massive. I don't know they'll be able to recruit enough.

GD12 If you go into the BBC or Sky twitter feeds and see the amount of people wanting a no deal, it's insane, it's literally bonkers.

I had that exact conversation with my mother last week. She regurgitates soundbites with no thought to what any of it actually means.

She had no concept of what no deal entails, and I’m not sure she believed me when I explained the potential ramifications (and she is on a cocktail of long term medications).

It is so depressing - I think the only thing that hit home was how it was going to screw the best years of her grand children’s lives. But she’ll be fine - no mortgage, savings, gold plated pension.

Oh by the way, only 5% of people think the army being brought in to deal with No Deal is 'very likely'. If you add the 13% who think its 'fairly likely, you are only up to 18%.

Alan Wager @DrAlanWager
Are the public prepared for the army being called in, in the event of a no-deal brexit? Polling we did at @UKandEU with @robfordmancs and @YouGov suggested they aren't.

This means Gavin Williamson's announcement is likely to surprise some people, and could well cut through...

I guess that makes many of us part of the 5%.

I am aware of that. We also currently don’t have any trade deals. How long will they take to negotiate?

Cannot agree that importers will not pass on costs to the consumer.

no. They think (and are quite correct) that there are only a finite amount of ports in Britain. Regardless of where goods originate, they can only enter Britain through these same ports. When lorries, which come from the EU and so used to be able to roll straight off a ferry and not have checks, have to be stopped - each lorry for minutes at a time (that's being optimistic time wise) this will create a backlog. All lorries coming through the ports- regardless of where they originated - will get caught up in this back log.

Regardless of where goods originate, they can only enter Britain through these same ports.

NO. Goods from outside the EU don't generally arrive on lorries or on ferries to start with and importantly they don't use the same ports as the ferries. They're also not on a tight schedule (like a lorry load of lettuce would be) and it usually doesn't really matter if they sit in a container terminal for an extra couple of days.

I work in transport.

Well it could legally be as bonkers as drivers in the EU getting trucks onto the ferries IF the ferries are EU owned but then once over the channel it would have to be a UK driver to take it outside the 'no mans land' of the port. Of course it is actually more complicated as it is not a 'pool' of trailers and tractors but individually owned.
I wonder where the EU and UK jurisdiction line actually cuts as the 'border' and is it 'no mans land' or joint between the ferry and the border control.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
“I’ve become the largest buyer of fridges in the world” Health Secretary @MattHancock tells @MarkUrban01 on newsnight re plans to store six weeks of stockpiled medicines for NHS in event of No Deal Brexit.

Defence Secretary asked about No Deal Contingencies in Commons says 3,500 military personnel held at readiness to support government departments

Two further Tory MPs tell me they would do the same as Boles ie resign whip if Government actually pursues No Deal: “Yes. If this was pursued the Party would break apart” says one of them “and there are others”.

HAPPY CHRISTMAS! DON'T KILL YOURSELF.