Westministenders: Its Really Not Getting Any Better Is It?

[RedToothBrush]

We are STILL on collision course for no deal.

Christmas is here, and whilst we might appreciate the respite from Brexit News, its really a luxury we can't afford.

The meaningful vote is scheduled for January.

Chaos is scheduled for shortly after.

I wish you all a happy and enjoyable Christmas.

Faisal Islam
‏*@faisalislam*
More Faisal Islam Retweeted Nick Boles MP
Here we go. PM wins back confidence of ERG with big No Deal talk... and then elsewhere... Whackamole.

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
If at any point between now and 29 March the government were to announce that ‘no deal’ Brexit had become its policy, I would immediately resign the Conservative whip and vote in any way necessary to stop it from happening.

We need more Nick Boles. From both sides of the House.

Is Britain shitting itself yet? Because I am and I don't even live there anymore.

Pmk.

This utter utter fucktastrope plus two I'll DCs has destroyed my mental health.

Cannot believe it just keeps getting worse. Those fucktard Tory MPs permanently lying and switching sides, aided and abetted by the shambolic non-leader of Labour. Did you know the origibal Blade Runner was set in 2019. Not sure reality will be an improvement.

I've written to my MP many times. She's a Tory former MEP and is staunchly in favour of May's deal - I've seen her on TV a lot praising it. I suspect she thinks toeing the party line will bring career benefits.

Think I’ll start buying n incontinence pants - looks like they’ll be in high demand come 30th March.

Nick Boles isn’t doing anything. The PM isn’t going to announce No Deal as policy. It’s the same as Anna Soubry - all mouth and when it comes to voting, she backs May.

Health Sec Matt Hancock chirpy about being the biggest fridge-buyer in the world - to stockpile NHS meds in case of No Deal

He should be saying how ashamed and shocked he is that his govt are dong this.

instead, he's proud of being the "fridge magnate"
< apologies ! >

Steven Swinfordd@Steven*Swinford

Here's some more of David Gauke [Cabinet Minister]said:

'Managed no-deal is not a viable option.

'It's not on offer from the EU and
the responsibility of Cabinet Ministers is not to propagate unicorns but to slay them'

bellini I can't help but feel that TM's is bluffing big time and she would blink. She's blackmailing^^ the opposition to shut up and vote as she wants or else No Deal will happen. I agree it's a huge gamble to vote against the WA though. The question is, who holds the balance of power if WA is voted down? I fear the answer may be: the DUP

{What the heck is a ‘managed’ No Deal??
What does it look like?}
Putting on incontinence pants before jumping out of an aeroplane with no parachute

Brilliant

How can it be a bluff if they’re hiring people and allocating budgets and buying fridges?!

Because they have to make it more believable. You would think they would be doing more than planning for 6 weeks of disruption if they weren't bluffing.

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre, Brussels)

Conservatives/DUP won't bring down Governmt, so any alternative to May's deal unlikely to include GE. 2nd referendum also faces big HoC hurdles.
May's deal not 1st preference but might pass in end
....
Difficult to predict where #Brexit process phase 1 will end
but at this stage realistically only three final outcomes on the table (with my probabilities):
no deal (60%), May's (tweaked) deal (40%), no Brexit (10%).
But many factors can change probabilities, e.g. Labour's stance
....
Only hardcore/fanatical/delusional Brexiteers truly believe no deal better than May's deal.
But unless the remaining MPs find a cross-party majority for an alternative, these Brexiteers might win in the end

{Education Secretary Damian Hinds urged his colleagues to back a plan to stage Commons votes on differnet Brexit options in the hope that a Plan B would be revealed that could command a majority.}

Taken from Parker's ling at end of previous thread.
Obviously 'our Damian' hasn't got the memo saying that there is no 'plan B' in terms of more negotiation, it is the WA or nothing.

"Managed No Deal" sounds so much better than trying to mitigate the worst effects of a catastrophe we inflicted in ourselves"

However, if the govt didn't attempt to do this, to at least bring in food & essential meds,
then this govt might have faced criminal charges after Brexit and would certainly face civil disorder if there were serious shortages.

The investment in No Deal is both to mitigate their cockup and to attempt to convince the EU they are serious about not giving in

• the EU won't blink even if it does think this, but that's another Brexiter delusion to be killed off.

Why would it become any scarcer or more expensive?

Because it's not made in this country? And with at least 759 treaties to renegotiate, and estimated time to clear a lorry through customs after Brexit set to significantly increase it seems unlikely that the cost of school uniform will stay low. Or do you think that the manufacturers in Sri Lanka, the haulage companies, or the supermarkets will absorb the additional costs out of the goodness of their hearts?

These are UNILATERAL MEASURES by the EU:

• the UK will have no input and there will be no negotiating or treaties / deals with the UK
• the time limits will be to suit only the EU
• they do not include all the UK needs

However, I'm sure Brexiters in the ERG and media will call this a "Managed No Deal"
No, it is the EU prepping to minimise effects on its members when the UK jumps off the cliff

Steve Peerss@StevePeers*

1/2 List of tomorrow's no deal proposals from the Commission -
on "basic" road freight, aviation (two proposals), the Northern Ireland peace (spending) programme, and exports of dual-use goods (civil goods with military uses) to the UK.^
Nothing listed on @BritishInEurope
....
2/2 Note these are proposals for unilateral EU action - not for treaties with the UK.
The texts aren't available yet so it's too soon to make assumptions about how this legislation would differ from EU membership (or the WA transition period). Lots of trade issues etc not covered
...
3/ Also on the agenda - a Commission paper on the future relationship declaration (presumably irrelevant if there's no deal) and a delegated act amending EU customs rules (ht @Benee_lux).
The latter doesn't go through a legislative procedure, but the EP or Council could block it.

^However, if the govt didn't attempt to do this, to at least bring in food & essential meds,
then this govt might have faced criminal charges after Brexit^

I cannot believe - in fact I refuse to believe - that, whatever the outcome of all this, the government will not end up facing criminal charges. Surely the act of even contemplating bringing about a scenario where there will be food and meds shortage - for no other reason than internal ideology - must be criminal negligence if nothing else treason.

To do so when you personally stand to make a profit from such a scenario should be worth several consecutive life sentences.

Maugham’s perspective on revocation seems to be that in the light of the A50 case, Parliament can demand the PM to revoke by a commons vote.

Murray, Gina Miller’s barrister, argued new legislation would be needed to reverse art50 intention to withdraw.

But Maugham and his team disagree because they say the Miller ruling was based partly on the assumption that art50 couldn’t be unilaterally revoked.

According to Maugham, Miller’s legal team & the UK government agreed that position because it was simpler legally and increased the constitutional role of parliament. The European court has now said that was wrong.

“The opinion also clears the legislative path to remaining. One option is for MPs to just cancel the article 50 notice without a further referendum. That is a course the advocate general has recognised is open to parliament..”

Jo Maugham QC*@JolyonMaugham*

Government lawyers confirm that Govt knows Parliament can direct it to step back from the abyss. It knows the two unthinkable options - May's deal or no deal - are not the only options.

Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham

Under pressure, the Govt has finally published the text of its (failed) application for permission to appeal to the Supreme Court. What is significant is that the Govt formally recognises MPs can simply direct it to revoke the Article 50 notice.

Text to follow.

Ministers are being told to prepare for a rise in suicide in the event of a chaotic no-deal Brexit
according to a leaked document seen by The Times.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-suicide-warning-if-exit-turns-chaotic-rjlhwb2n0

Officials say that in the event of Britain leaving the EU without a deal and on unfriendly terms,
they must “create a strategy with other government departments — handling the negative impacts (eg homelessness, poverty and suicide).

This outcome is likely to cause unemployment and welfare spending to rise to levels last seen after the 2008-09 crash. < or worse >
The unemployment benefit bill could rise by almost £12 billion over three years.

The warning comes in a 16-page planning document entitled “Economic Downturn” prepared for the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) on December 6.

Text and tweet.

So not just economic suicide but actual literal suicide. Wtf.

Not yet clear how / if (with court cases ongoing) the HoC can order the PM to Revoke

Also, only 62 MPs so far signed that letter against No Deal, although several more might have if asked to do so^

Interesting too, that he always goes first to the Scottish courts.^


Jo Maugham QC@JolyonMaugham

The Article 50 case is not over.
We are now going to ask Scotland's Highest Court to determine how Parliament can revoke the Article 50 Notice

quietrebel exactly, in appeasing the views of those that chose this, they're effectively telling everyone else that they get no say. Will of the people said we get to throw the country over a cliff, and any attempt to make them see sense and think of everyone this will impact is apparently some sort of move against democracy.

If leave had lost by 2% they would be banging the drum of a second referendum because it represents a massive amount of people, but because they won now everyone else has lost the right to an opinion and are now being held to ransom by some bloody tories set to make millions out of the destruction of this country.

Seriously, they couldn't write this as a film it'd be too unbelievable. Especially in light of the fact that people believe they voted out for the same reasons as JRM and BJ, because the ordinary man on the street is going to come out of a no deal brexit with cash in his pocket and a house somewhere hot that they can retreat to whilst everyone else lives with the repercussions.

It's depressing as hell, I cannot believe that we have found ourselves trapped in a dictatorship with TM at the helm and bugger all in the way of a contingency plan. The EU owe us nothing, we have decided to jump off the cliff. The irony of people saying they want a managed no-deal so we can withhold the money owed to the EU whilst also expecting them to make our transition into being completely fucked a little bit easier. Absolutely lose the will, no one wins in this political wasteland and when the tories are kicked out they will just spout 'will of the people' and expect us to pick up the pieces.