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Westminstenders: The Grand Old Duke of Brexit, he had 10,000 men ..

968 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/12/2018 09:44

May has marched us up, down and round and round. And still we are standing exactly where we began with no clue and no direction of where to go.

She may have survived a leadership challenge but it has resolved precisely nothing. And whilst many here are relieved because they feared an ERG proxy PM and the consequences and chaos of yet more lost time, May herself is a road block to any sort of resolution. Her inflexible approach and seeming lack of ideas are not helping matters.

May's rhetoric is that she will pursue a no deal v her deal strategy in extreme brinkmanship. Her efforts to reopen a negotiation that the UK had already agreed to have fallen flat with rising irritation for the EU. Indeed the EU seem to be toughing language (though it must be noted their position has remained exactly the same since the beginning)

The backstop is their red line, because its in essence the GFA.

May's promises to the DUP and to her own party were always unachievable; she should never have made them. She only did so to save her own neck, but in doing so, she makes it harder to force her deal though.

The all important vote it seems has been postponed until after Christmas. The deadline is 21st Jan. If there is no resolution the government have to make a statement in 5 days. Its still impossible to see it passing.

The Grieve III motion which was supposed to neutralise the threat of no deal has been rendered all but useless by the delay. Whether MPs realise this is another matter though. It could lead to a false sense of safety and not taking the prospect of no deal seriously.

Both May's actions and strategy and the false hope of Grieve III / revocation also weaken the prospect of alternative solutions to the WA, such as a Norway Plus or a People's Vote.

No deal preparations in the meantime have been stepped up.

May has promised that she will not revoke A50. The ERG clearly don't necessarily believe that or they wouldn't have launched their leadership challenge.

Would she though? Was it strategy or a slip when she said it was a choice between no deal, her deal or no brexit? And is this statement helpful or an additional problem in itself given subsequent developments?

I find it hard to forget her pig headed stubbornness and how she has persued court cases for no other reason other than to make a point, or for what looks like pure spite. I think she would no deal and take the fall out over revocation out of duty to her party and what she sees as her duty to the country to 'respect the vote'. The consequences be damned.

However the ever sceptical James Patrick does think she would revoke at the last minute because of her duty to the country and what no deal would do to the country. And she has proved she is for turning under extreme pressure.

The hard core of the ERG are also not done. They are avowed to do anything to stop a deal. Labour’s strategy seems to be tied to how serious the ERG and the DUP are with this. They are holding out for the prospect of a non-binding no confidence vote. Which is meaningless. Unless they have the numbers to challenge the Fixed Term Act then their current strategy is utterly pointless and just for the viewing consumption of those who don't understand how pointless this is. It's hard to see Labour’s real strategy as supporting anything but no deal in practice. Although the one ray of hope is that they did support Grieve III. They do need to wake up to the reality of the threat though.

Ultimately I fear it will come down to how MPs make this judgement call. Do they share my fears or do they share James Patrick's position.

And that is nothing but a gamble.

I fear Brexit will ultimately be decided on a gamble of What Would May Do. There isn't any other realistic prospect presenting itself at this stage.

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RedToothBrush · 15/12/2018 08:05

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
EXCLUSIVE Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan to be unveiled on Monday for a "managed no deal" that could halve Brexit bill

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/14/penny-mordaunt-fuels-leadership-speculation-plan-managed-no/amp/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan for a managed no deal that could halve Brexit bill

I've seen earlier this week, moderate George Freeman backing Mordaunt and saying she's best placed to win the leadership so don't dismiss this.

Despite (apparently) supporting May to stay as Leader and encouraging a parliamentary compromise since she won he's also written this:

<a class="break-all" href="https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/a-general-election-will-happen-within-12-months-says-theresa-mays-ex-policy-advisor_uk_5c12789ee4b0835fe327827a#click=t.co/bmfGaRSGGj" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/a-general-election-will-happen-within-12-months-says-theresa-mays-ex-policy-advisor_uk_5c12789ee4b0835fe327827a#click=t.co/bmfGaRSGGj
Snap General Election Will Be Held In Next 12 Months, Says Theresa May's Ex-Policy Advisor
A no-deal Brexit would put Jeremy Corbyn in power, says Tory MP George Freeman.

We are going to hear a lot about a managed no deal.

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bellinisurge · 15/12/2018 08:10

A second referendum MUST NOT have No Deal as an option. Because there is a risk that enough idiots will vote for it and we will all be fucked.

RedToothBrush · 15/12/2018 08:10

And the view from Ireland and Tony Connelly

www.rte.ie/amp/1017288/?__twitter_impression=true
Dramatic Brexit week leaves us none the wiser

"The more the Brits start spinning and talking about legal bases and the Vienna Convention," said one EU source, "the more people start to be suspicious. What are they trying to do with this? Is it in good faith?"

By Wednesday afternoon, senior figures were playing down the prospect of legal mechanisms. What was needed was to simply highlight what the deal said about the circumstances in which the backstop would apply.

"Additional written legal guarantees have not been discussed," insisted one diplomat. "The UK has asked for assurances. They don’t have to be dealt with through a legal mechanism because they’re clarifications, not interpretations."

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borntobequiet · 15/12/2018 08:19

Putting a relatively unknown dimwit up for a leadership bid is just the thing that will persuade people that the Conservative party is capable of government. Not. I suspect that many ordinary voters who detest May have some sympathy for the difficult position she’s in (especially if they don’t realise it’s largely of her own making), and are fed up with the antics of her enemies.
Penny Mordaunt is the Minister for Women and Equalities who thinks that anyone who says they are a woman is a woman, even if they have a penis, full beard and a nasty fetish.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 08:21

The Irish Times view on the Brexit stalemate: London staggers towards the exit

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-on-the-brexit-stalemate-london-staggers-towards-the-exit-1.3731763

it’s a picture of almost total stasis.
What has changed is that another week has elapsed, and London is fast running out of road.

The divorce is scheduled to take effect at 11pm on March 29th.
The timetable means the withdrawal agreement must be approved by Westminster by the end of January.

But with May unable to secure a parliamentary majority for the text,
and the EU making clear it will not dilute the legal text on the backstop – the chief object of the Brexiteers’ ire –
a no-deal tailspin is increasingly likely.

For two years, the British government tried to maintain the impression that it had a grand plan in the negotiations.

It plainly never did

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 08:24

Mordaunt, with her belief that men are women if they say so, is ideally suited to lead the No Deal Brexit fantasists.

RosaPalma · 15/12/2018 08:26

This exchange sums up perfectly, in NY view, the frustration from the EU27:
C4 reporter: If you don't give her the concessions that she needs, that deal will fail in parliament and you might end up with no deal. Are you prepared to run that risk?
Luxembourg PM "Brexit is your choice, not mine".

twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1073553013581770753?s=1

And then there is this Grin:
twitter.com/CarlMullan/status/1073359007904088064?s=19

RedToothBrush · 15/12/2018 08:34

Mordaunt, with her belief that men are women if they say so, is ideally suited to lead the No Deal Brexit fantasists.

She's easily brain washed/led and lacks critical thinking and will make worse mistakes than May...

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jasjas1973 · 15/12/2018 08:39

If May cannot get her more moderate deal through Parliament, how would a no-deal fair?
also, forgotten by Moudaunt is that the EU would have to agree to this managed no-deal.

Hunt now saying that Mays deal could get through if backstop is legally time limited...
Rudd wanting x party support is like wishing for world peace.

Still suspect a PV is the most likely option & if a no-deal is to be excluded, then Leaves will say Remain option must be excluded too.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 08:43

Dramatic Brexit week leaves us none the wiser

Good summary of the week, the UK discussions with Brussels & Ireland.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/10172888_/??_

...the mere completion of a deal does not banish the backstop forever.

The content of the deal is what counts,
and in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland, the FTA would have to be one of high alignment on customs and single market rules.

This is signposted in the Political Declaration,
but EU leaders are of the view that neither the prime minister, nor the House of Commons, nor the public at large
have metabolised such a destiny and certainly won’t have in time for the January vote.

"The feeling in the room was that the UK has to have a grown up discussion about this,"

< WHERE ARE THE GROWNUPS ? >

RedToothBrush · 15/12/2018 08:49

Schona Jolly QC @ womaninhavana
“Impassive Aggressive”.

If that’s a thing, I think it is a fitting description of Theresa May.

Some thoughts on why, for all the spectacle of being a lone figure battling on all sides, May does not deserve a nation’s sympathy. /1

All throughout this process, and Brexit is very a much a process (to which I will return), there have been a series of choices. At each turn, May has made very poor choices.

It is those choices which have led us to the precipice on which we sit as a nation today. /2

Of those choices, to my mind, it is the failure of transparency which has had the most serious ramifications.

Indeed, it can’t even be described as a failure of transparency.

It was a conscious choice in May’s part to keep reality cloaked in darkness during her premiership. /3

She has brought to her governance of the country her method of governance of the Home Office.

Inscrutable, surrounded by a tight circle of advisers, determined to appeal everything no matter how wrong she is in law and fact (ask immigration lawyers about that). /4

May is the architect of the Hostile Environment, which would never have been uncovered if it were not for reporters like @ameliagentleman.

May has managed to bring And foster that Hostile Environment to the whole country, with her management, control and direction of Brexit./5

She started it with citizens of nowhere & underlined it with queue-jumpers.

In an era of “enemies of the people” & “traitors” & “betrayals”, she wasn’t a strong leader who clamped down on the braying, but instead fostered a narrative that Brexit would be betrayed. /6

May’s betrayal narrative was behind the general election.

It was behind the bitterness of what should have been legal, technical debates about the Withdrawal Bill.

And it was in every mouthful of that authoritarian “will of the people”. /7

May isn’t a unifier. She has sought aggressively to block, ignore and chastise almost half the country’s vote in the referendum by refusing to acknowledge it.

She has blocked proper debate by resorting to embarrassing cliches which now finally knock her down. /8

There was another way to try Brexit.

It requires transparency from beginning to end.

That meant levelling with the people about the trade-offs involved.

Publishing, not blocking, impact assessments.

Publishing honest economic assessments, not last minute spinning. /9

It meant consultation.

With devolved governments, cross-party, with business, with lawyers and judges, with the arts and sciences, with academia.

With the @The3Million @BritishInEurope and all those dramatically affected by the choices.

She chose to ignore them. /10

It meant recognising & acknowledging that Brexit was a monumental process.

One in which the clock shouldn’t be set off until the outcome of that process was settled at least from the domestic side.

May treated Brexit as a parade instead of a process. /11

So May settled on the parade of Brexit instead of the process.

She blocked transparent discussion of that process with talk of red, white and blue Brexit, Brexit festivals, blue passports, dramatic signings of the Withdrawal Act.

She wasted time waving flags. /11

So she delays a vote before Parliament.

She stands there obstinately refusing to budge.

Still citing the will of the people.

Still angry with EU politicians for pointing out the blinding obvious.

Still placating her extremists with what she knows is nonsense. /13

She does it knowing she is running down the clock, pushing us closer to a distastrous No Deal which she spent 2 years pretending was a real option.

She does this to satisfy a lunatic ideological fringe in her party instead of firmly placing the national interest first. /14

May’s long list of pretences has wasted time, further divided the country & now threatens to push us over the cliff edge.

She has done it by covering her eyes, blocking her ears & speaking things unworthy of a democratic Prime Minister.

Impassive aggressive?
May?
Absolutely.

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BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 08:50

No Deal is what automatically happens if the HoC and / or May do not decide on something else by 29 March

The UK needs to stop displacement activity, fantasising about inventing totally new options at this stage
and just pick one of the existing options

or it is just running down the clock to No Deal

Tick Tock

Westminstenders: The Grand Old Duke of Brexit, he had 10,000 men ..
borntobequiet · 15/12/2018 08:51

I now think there will be a PV, and an extension from the EU to accommodate it. I marched for a PV even though I knew it was a dangerous option - I thought it would ratchet up pressure against a no deal.
I believe the postponement of the vote and subsequent disarray, with the attempt to oust May, has probably pushed the polls towards Remain as more people realise how foolish and incompetent most of our politicians are, and I think this realisation carries within it the germs of an understanding that the difficulties we find ourselves in as a country are of our own making and not down to the EU. So I think Remain is now more likely to have a chance, if on the ballot, especially as Art 50 can be rescinded.
If it comes to a PV, we should all speak out. I know I kept far too quiet before the referendum (which is uncharacteristic of me, despite my username!), but I won’t in future.

Mrsr8 · 15/12/2018 08:51

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 09:00

jas A managed No Deal is another Brexiter fantasy, similar to WTO Brexit

The HoC can only legislate for what the UK does
e.g. ramping up prepping - which is now too late, running in circles & shouting ....

Barnier has said the EU will not do "mini-deals" to help alleviate UK pain if there is no WA
Instead, the EU will do the bare minimum it needs for its own benefit

The EU will NOT discuss trade, flights, ships, EURATOM, Galileo etc until the UK has first agreed - and signed -
the 3 prerequisites in the WA.
NI backstop, expats, exit bill

The UK after No Deal will be in a desperate position, far far weaker than now in negotiations
It will just be told "sign here" by the EU and by everyone else, especially the US

ClashCityRocker · 15/12/2018 09:06

Chuckling to myself at the idea of businesses having things in place for no deal.

Some major nationals mainly - but the ones I know personally of, the contingency plans have involved making sure they know what tariffs will be on what and moving manufacturing elsewhere where appropriate.

This came up at a recent conference - over 200 people there, and at a conservative estimate acting for over 150,000 SMEs. The general consensus was that very few have actively made any brexit planning strategy.

A lot are still struggling to get back on their feet after the last recession. Many genuinely believed that there would be a deal. It costs businesses a lot to put these contingency plans in place, and whilst we have been advising clients to consider the 'worse case scenario' many still believe it is project fear.

There's a reluctance in the industry to really push it too, because of this political aspect. I know we've had to be very careful of what we say in client briefings.

HMRC have just sent out notices advising businesses to consider registering under EORI and appointing a customs agent. This might get some people thinking - however what meaningful plans can be put in place in three months?

lonelyplanetmum · 15/12/2018 09:07

Hear hear Born about the speaking out. Need to weave on feelings not just facts though!

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 09:07

We're almost out of time, but May and most of the HoC are still in la-la land, still demanding the same things that the
RoI / EU will never agree

Hunt, like everyone else talking about "time-limited" backstop, or one the UK can unlaterally revoke,
needs to get real.

and it's too late to start inventing a new option

Choose from what's available, or you'll dither us to No Deal

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 09:10

The German prepping that I personally know about is basically removing all UK firms from the supply chain.

The expected drop in profits isn't much and we hope to make it up by selling a bit more elsewhere

  • maybe take some sales from the UK, since it will be severely hampered in exporting.
borntobequiet · 15/12/2018 09:17

Yes, lonely, you’re right.
Now trying to think how to do the feelz!
I wonder if that little tiny thing about having to pay for a visa to travel to the EU will have affected people. I thought when it was announced that it underlines, like nothing else that people can relate to in everyday life, our new status as a “third country”. (I quite like that it sounds like “third world”.)

lonelyplanetmum · 15/12/2018 09:19

Kate Hoey: “we didnt spend 30 years suffering IRA killings of soldiers and civilians in Northern Ireland to see a United Ireland imposed by a few jumped up EU bureaucrats and a complicit prime minister.”

How dare Hoey say this. She's a fucking lunatic. How dare she.

The EU have at all times carefully balanced the ultra sensitive situation on the island of Ireland - unlike our own cabinet members! Jeez- It's people like Boris and members of the ERG and people like Hoey herself who are 'jumped up' .They are either ignorant of history, or put their own greed first. Grrrr. Who voted for that woman.

borntobequiet · 15/12/2018 09:19

“Removing all U.K. firms from the supply chain”
That should be shouted from the rooftops!

FestiveForestieraNoel · 15/12/2018 09:23

I keep forgetting Hoey's in the Labour party

Sostenueto · 15/12/2018 09:23

Remain cannot be put on a ballot paper in a second referendum because it was a losing side in the first. The choice would be mays deal or no deal. The only way remain could be put on a ballot paper is if there was a general election and the labour party won. They can then overturn the original referendum for a new one. But as the Tories gave the original referendum and leave won the only referendum they can give is to resolve the first outcome of leave. So mays deal or no deal. Only a general election will allow for remain to be on the ballot paper.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/12/2018 09:24

Festive So does she !