Westminstenders: Dear Santa for Christmas I'd like...

[RedToothBrush]

The ERG to be the grinch that stole the Tory Party Christmas who ultimately get what they deserve.

To remain in the EU

Donald Trump's impeachment

For politics to be boring again

A trex toy for my son

We were never looking at 50 years of Tory government as they’re a dying breed

That's what we thought in the mid 90s to 2010 ....

It would have been a lot easier to campaign for Labour surely.

The thing is "not Tories" does not (and never has) equated to "Labour". They aren't diametric opposites.

GD12 VERY unlikely an ERG PM rips up a treaty after it had been signed, because the UK would be international pariahs
and no other country would agree a trade deal
Even the US, because Congress & the Irish lobby would block this.

That's why the ERG are so desperate to topple May now

• the NI backstop would come into effect if no deal can be agreed and that means being tied to EU rules, so again no US FTA possible.

Tried that for Gordon and "Red" Ed and they were both deemed too Left wing by the English electorate. Tatiana

The PV campaign is a mere fig leaf for the centrists to wrest back power in the Tory and Labour Party and go back to both being exactly the same. That misguided endeavour is what creates the danger of extremist revival.

Macron has wrested the Centre, destroying mainstream Left and Right. What happens when, as is fast approaching, everyone has had enough of him, may not be pretty.

Germany, to its credit seems to be addressing the danger by re-aligning CDU/CSU to head off AfD and managing out Merkel. However the Greens still have work to do to sort out the vacuum where the SPD should be imho.

The PV campaign is a mere fig leaf for the centrists to wrest back power in the Tory and Labour Party and go back to both being exactly the same.

Yeah, getting people to vote now that they have actual, detailed plans to vote on is really a figleaf for a middle-of-the-road coup.

The advantages of a PV are:

1. that a reasonably clear Remain victory would settle the issue and polls indicate Remain is the clear favourite now

• this recent chaos seems to have turned a lot of people away from Brexit delusions

2. that it would be the only issue:

Leavers claim that the reason they could never get a govt elected to Leave, e.g. the 1983 Labour manifesto promised Leave,
is precisely that voters put party loyaöties and other issues first.

If a PV gives a clear Remain, then that means - politically - we would need yet another ref to ever invoke A50 again.
and the demograhics will have changed even more in a few years

Also, in both major parties and all minor parties except the DUP loons, there is a majority of Remain MPs,
who would never let themselves be pushed again into invoking A50 after all this shit, unless there were indeed a big Leave mandate.

Well it doesn't solve anything if the Question is : Remain vs TM's Remain with none of the Benefits and the Result is near as dammit 50:50 as it surely would be. Even Hard Brexit vs Remain doesn't settle it if the answer is 50:50.

We'd just get more of the same with different headless chickens in charge.

If it were that simple both Parties would already have pivoted to Remain Bigchoc.

{It doesn’t matter RTB, I’m sure the U.K. can do the same if not better anyway once it can finally do its know trade deals!}
Well you have many tons of yams and plantains to look forward to from Africa. I hope you like them as there may not be much else.

{What happens when, as is fast approaching, everyone has had enough of him, may not be pretty.}
We will tell the nutcase protestors in France that the UK took all the money (which is only a half lie as Brexit is impacting on the poor across Europe).

Howabout Your view of German politics bears no relation to what I see actually living in the country

1. The CDU is NOT realigning to the right

• the choice of Merkel's successor as party leader means they are staying centre right The CDU is far more centrist than UK Tories have ever been

2. Merkel remains as chancellor for quite some time, probably until the elections in 2021 certainly stays until after Brexit is resolved, which is why May is still cosying up to her

I notice you give out the same crap about "centrists" winning again
- since at least 1979, only the hard right Tories consider the Tory party has been anywhere near centrist

Also, you seem very keen on the ERG, especially Redwood

You are most unconvincing as a Labour supporter, same as on your previous appearances

Quentin Letts
‏

@thequentinletts
31m31 minutes ago
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Tory command's decision to de-suspend sex-text Tory MP Andrew Griffiths so that he can vote for the vicar's daughter is glorious. A decadence to match the last days of Rome.

If you consider Germany centrist then it is hardly any wonder we are at cross purposes Bigchoc.

Remain / Leave is not a party political issue, but it has different effects on the 2 parties:

Millions of Tory voters would likely stay home or vote UKIP if the Tory party right now made Remain its policy.
Once Remain has been voted for and settled for a few years, then inertia would settle in.
Especially if UKIP finally dies off.

Even Labour party internal polls - with 70% voter support for Remain - suggest they would lose key Northern seats if they switched to Remain in a January GE

So, switching to Remain would be dangerous to either right now,
but in a few years, once this disaster has sunk in, accepting Leave is dead could be political reality
especially with the changed demographics

It could well be that TM wins tonigh.
Regarding a second referendum, what if vote leave won again? Wouldn’t the Prime Minister whoever it is, face the same problem?
The leaver politicians seem to mainly want to leave with no deal, whilst the remainder politicians will vote against anything.
Surely a half in half out deal is the worst scenario? We would pay a fortune to the EU and get little in return.
Point to note , Dave Cameron only gave us this referendum to win the 2015 election.

The CDU is in the tradition of European centre right Christian democratic parties,
believing in a measure of social justice and responsibility

The Tory party has always been clearly far more of the right, especially since MrsT lobotomised the party

It is only centrist if you belong to the extreme right that passes for conservatism now in the US

You were speaking of the UK vs Germany, not Tory vs CDU Bigchoc (although I am not convinced and they didn't depose Merkel for being too right wing).
It is precisely the point that Labour can no longer win by tacking to the Centre because if it does so its core Left wing support stays home in disgust - in other words the UK has moved Left.

Surely even the leave politicians doing the negotiations must realise that it’s going to be almost impossible to get a good deal with the EU? What’s their incentive to let us leave with a good deal? There isn’t. And it’s took them 2 and a half years to realise this?!
To me we should just leave or stay.
Under TMs current deal we have to pay 39 billion to leave. And have this half in half out deal.
We can’t get a good deal from the EU, we would half to exit under their terms.

Our problem is that the centre in the UK is too weak
and the hard right & left are too strong

We can argue about how far left Labour is / was:
Blair was to my mind actually centrist, not left of centre at all.

However, surely noone can seriously claim that the Tory party has ever been anywhere near centrist, except for the MacMillan era.

So, it is baffling that anyone - who claims to be of the left - can claim that the Tory^party would be dragged back to the centre again - it was never there

Agreed Jedi

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
There's a big difference between what ministers are saying in public and what they are saying in private.

One who went out on the airwaves to bat for the PM this morning just told me: 'It's the endgame'

howabout I was speaking of how the german CDU - and other Christian democrats in the main European conservatice grouping - has always been well to the left of the Tory party

The candidate that would have moved the CDU slightly to the right - still nowhere near the Uk Tories - was defeated
and the moderate candidate won

That's only as leader.
Merkel is expected to stay on quite some time as Chancellor, possibly until the 2021 elections
Her opinion poll ratings are still what any UK Tory could only dream of.

In the UK, our problem is that the centre has been weak for many years
Only the hard right think we keep having centrist governments here

Surely even the leave politicians doing the negotiations must realise that it’s going to be almost impossible to get a good deal with the EU?

Considering we had the best deal going to start with ...

that's another 5% the Leave campaign seduced ... people who had a sneaking feeling the EU weren't giving us the best deal.

Lord sugar @ Lordsugar
BREAKING APPRENTICE due to the vote of no confidence there is a posibility tonights episode 11 will be delayed or resheduled. @bbcapprentice

This really will piss people off.

Îf Leave win again - against the polls, but always very possible - the choice will be this WA or No Deal.

The EU might allow a short extension, so they can finish thier prepping and cream off more UK business

However, any WA will alway have an NI backstop
and any change to the WA - if allowed at all - would only happen if the UK drops red lines like FOM, ECJ or cuts loose NI

The ERG and Corbyn are all lying if they claim they can get a deal without backstop