Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

Emotive words aimed at gullible voters who don't understand Freedom Of Movement or the simple concept that a EU citizen working in the UK is no more of a "queue jumper" or "citizen of nowhere" than a Brit teaching English in France.

People don't ask to see your passport, you just have to open your mouth for them to know where you are from, when abroad.

Discounts, upgrades and such seem to be quiet common amongst my friends, non of us are rich but we are all nice people, the pushy ones tend to not gain and be miffed about it, so maybe it is more who your are and how you act, that is respected and rewarded.

Sat and watched a family member have a paddy fit on holiday, trying to get an upgrade, got nothing, I waited quietly, even said sorry when they had final been sorted and gone, manager told me he pitied me, then swapped our rooms for better ones, just because he could...

People don't ask to see your passport, you just have to open your mouth for them to know where you are from, when abroad.

I’m not talking upgrades. If only.

People most certainly do ask to see passports if they have an AK47 and an agenda.

People don't ask to see your passport, you just have to open your mouth for them to know where you are from, when abroad

Never worked for me, always need to show PP through customs, check-in, booking into a hotel etc

Most brits abroad can't speak any foreign language, so yes v clear where from!

Maybe i need a book of mindfulness... lol!

No I don't think the Australian should have voted...
And Nicks family said they didn't want a British passport...
Why should you get a vote if you don't live here or have been gone for 15 years... You let because you wanted too...
Unless you take that countries passport then no you have no vote...
Or should we all pile over to Spain to have a quick vote...

Sure that might upset Spain...

So your saying at the point if a gun a British passport could save your life...
Blooming great perk... There...

Apart from airports and legal stuff how often does someone request to see your passport... They view you as they find you... A British accent is still its own passport.

LOL at people just hear you speak and they roll over for you...

I am an EU national, but you would not know it unless you had a chance to look at my passport - I speak 4 languages, two at native speaker level. I haven't noticed the Brit-love benevolence much. Having a valid passport matters, manners matter - and manners are not the sole preserve of the British.

Mummmy
I do not sound, look or act forrin
but by golly TM tries to make me feel it.
And after Brexit, the rest of the world will have no compunction reminding how alone the UK will be.

In conflict areas a UK or USA passport is not a bonus.

Most euro hotels hire car, campsites ask for a passport for booking you in as proof of ID, together with a CC

Obv as we cannot (generally) speak other languages, so the assumption is we are English but unless you are making some ridiculous case that English people get more upgrades than other nations, i don't see what your point is?

Unless you take that countries passport then no you have no vote...

Good. So we are agreed that it was unfair that 1 million Commonwealth citizens were entitled to vote in the EU referendum.

Why should you get a vote if you don't live here or have been gone for 15 years

Ummm, because (a) you are still a UK citizen (with a UK passport) and (b) there are extensive ramifications with respect to work, pension and healthcare provisions.

So your saying at the point if a gun a British passport could save your life...
Blooming great perk... There...

Ha ha ha.

No.

A British passport can be a fatal liability. Hence the second passport being carried.

Apart from airports and legal stuff how often does someone request to see your passport... They view you as they find you...

Fwiw I’m an eu citizen. I’ve recently had clients who know where I’m coming from asking me which passport I have and even asked if I had a british passport.
They are long term clients and the service they get has nothing to do with the passport I’m holding.

So... actually people now ARE asking other which passports they have.

And yes it has a huge impact on people like me.

Buteo but you have signed out of living in the UK and are an ex pat...

Talkinpeece was trying to say it was the EU bit of my passport that is important..and is respected. But apart from legal things how does that count if the person does not show their passport . In those circumstance it is the persona that counts.
As it is their being British that influences how they are treated?

mummmy
You clearly do not trust experts or foreigners or expats
fine
who do you trust?
And what evidence of theirs do you rely on ?

Re your initial question about trusting experts.

What you do is the same that what you would do in science. When you have x studies proving more or less the same thing, you know it’s very likely that that xxx is goi h to happen.
Seeing that the givernment impact studies are saying the same thing (as in,mit will be shit and much worse economically for the country, whatever we are choosing) I tend to believe that this is what will happen rather than itnwill be all roses.

Fwiw the U.K. has already list a hell of a lot of money on brexit already (the pound, GPD lowest than all other eu countries etc etc)

Buteo but you have signed out of living in the UK and are an ex pat...

Nope. Apart from a year in the US (where you are very much a legal alien).

Tens of thousands of UK workers rotate in and out of the UK from their UK companies on UK contracts to overseas workplaces in dangerous areas.

I know experts can make figures lie..
I have written reports and know dam well that what is show is made to reflect what we want it too show...
Budget figures can and are minipulated to reflect this... By setting up a budget for say shoe cleaning you can make a household budget appear to be in the red, and by adding it back the next month appear to have increased the family's income against out goings...
Experts do this all the time, the report I linked to in first post actually said he admitted he got it wrong.
How many times has Hammond had extra cash in a budget because a forecast was better than expected..
The report is the worse possible, so any improvement at all in any area will mean that yet again they over played the doom...
God forbid any remainer ever admits that things might not be all over the cliff car crash if get get a no deal...
So I decided, after a heck of a lot of reading that a leave vote was worth it...

That I want the change, want to force our government who ever they are to stop reacting and to start planning and making things happen because we cut off their comfort blanket.

The report is the worse possible, so any improvement at all in any area will mean that yet again they over played the doom...

Hammond’s (or the UK Treasury’s) report assumed that for the May (Chequer’s) agreement a whole raft of FTAs had been agreed. If anything, it is massively over optimistic.

That wasn't what the bank bloke said, he quoted it as worse case.

That wasn't what the bank bloke said, he quoted it as worse case.

You’re confusing the BoE stress testing for UK banks with the Treasury reports.

That I want the change, want to force our government who ever they are to stop reacting and to start planning and making things happen because we cut off their comfort blanket

Good luck with that, its not their comfort blanket, they could have done that at any time in the last 45 years, btw they didn't plan before we were in the EEC.

More Brexit dreams.

Of course worst case scenarios are just that & we could have anything in between because we can't predict world events and forecasts are exactly that "best endeavors"

mummmy
So, you do not like the reports from the Bank of England, the Treasury, the IFS, the OECD etc
whose reports DO you like ?
please link

So... actually people now ARE asking other which passports they have.

Etvoila, why are they asking what passport you have got?

When MC says out loud to the people who asked him to report to them on the worse case scenario. Then it is used as what Will happen to frighten people by remain, why should I trust him.
He apologies in the link I first posted for getting it So Wrong...
Had he been a doctor telling the patient it would die someone would have sued him..
The more scare reports you publish the less impact they have...
Also in the small print it quotes that even if this happened the banks can withstand the impact, funny that doesn't feature much....
Industry is not going to die... Sorry but just no.
Create a vacuum, something will fill it, and everyone kept going on about banking being our major earner with services, seems they are all sure they will ride thus storm.... Not what was said on here a year ago.

Stress testing domestic UK banks with a worst case scenario is exactly what the BoE should be doing - and is what Parliament requested.

However, the BofE is not responsible for what happens to commercial banking should Brexit result in a large scale shift to European centres.

The fact that your mortgage provider won’t go tits up is good - but when commercial banking shifts to Frankfurt or Paris together with its tax receipts, that’s not so good.

Industry is not going to die

Please explain how you can extrapolate that?