Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

I don't accept premise that MC only wrote what he wrote b/c he wanted to scare people. He wrote what he wrote b/c it's his job to use the established methods to produce a set of forecasts & expectations.

If I choose to go and work in a foreign country, that is my choice.

If that country is in Europe and you decide to go after 29/3/19 then no, your vote has taken that choice from you. Rules agreed by the EU (when we were a member) are fixed. You voted for no FOM, you got it. You want special rules for you? Go whistle, to quote Boris.

Oh, and the Daily Mail link in your OP is over 2 years old, and ignores the fact that the BofE immediately loosened monetary policy and spent billions on QE after the referendum to prop up sterling.

mummy please couod give us a link of someone that YOU trust please?

And could you also link to someone whose predictions are POSTIVE (economically) for the U.K. too? It doesn’t have to be someone you trust, just someone making nice positive predictions.

I’ve yet to find anyone able to do the last part and I wouod really like you to prove me wrong.

Buteo but you have signed out of living in the UK and are an ex pat.
Op maybe you don't know this but many many people who go to work abroad do so representing our country, not because they have jumped ship. The thousands of British civil servants working for the EU are still very much British, representing our country. Likewise the diplomats all over the world and the employees of British companies posted abroad. It's not all Brits who fancy running a pub in Marbella.

Since we still don't know what we are getting, anything written will be a guess...
Has the EU not said we can't start trade deals till we get out....

The link is from two years ago as it proves how wrong he was and still is.

A British accent is still its own passport.

It very very much depends on which countries you go to. In some it pays to keep your mouth firmly shut.

BTW the accent and passport aren't synonymous - I know British passport holders who have lived most of their lives elsewhere, and their accents reflect that, plus citizens born elsewhere who have lived here since childhood, so sound as British as they come.

The link is from two years ago as it proves how wrong he was and still is.

Not really, all that Daily Mail article demonstrates is that there weren’t huge problems in the days directly following the Referendum - given that Cameron didn’t trigger Article 50 immediately.

However, if you remember, pre Referendum Carney predicted that a vote to Leave would cause the value of Sterling would fall - and it did, immediately losing around 15% of its value.

He also predicted an increase in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth - again, this has happened, inflation up by 1.5% and GDP is down by around 2% compared to where it would have been if the vote had been Remain.

And the UK hasn’t even left yet.

@mummy

Repeating your point again and again doesn't make it any more true.

Carney took action after the vote which stopped the pound from crashing further than it did, and also took action to prop up the stock market.

He proved himself wrong by taking action to stop the worst of his predictions coming true.

If you want to leave, just because you do, and nothing at all will ever change your mind, then you're entitled to want what you want.

But don't post provocative links on an Internet discussion board, and then act defensive when people challenge you. What's the point?

The idea of this website is discussion.

If you're not willing to address the points that refute what you're saying, then don't bother. You're just making your point look more and more meaningless and hollow to anyone that reads the thread.

Comparing the economy of our country to your home budget for shoe cleaning is beyond ludicrous.

I'm sorry, I don't want to be rude, I really don't. But, it's like refuting the opinion of a rocket scientist by saying that you made a space shuttle out of a Fairy liquid bottle when you were a child.

You're partially right about voting though. EU citizens in the UK who were eligible, should have applied for citizenship in order to make their vote.

Quite a few of my friends from the EU never bothered to become a citizen, despite being here for long enough to do so, and then complained about the result. To me that makes no sense at all. If you don't exercise your rights, then you've no complaint.

As we are repeating points anyway I'd urge people to listen to the Radio 4 interview with Mark Carney. Far from criticising him, he is a voice of measured honest professionalism compared to many of the politicians we hear.

He makes the point again and again that it is simply doing his job to prepare the B of E for a variety of scenarios.He stayed neutral about the path he thought best, repeating it was up to Parliament to decide.

How anyone can find those who got us into this mess more trustworthy is beyond me.

If I was dangling over a cliff edge clinging onto a rope and could choose a person to hold the other end, I'll take Carney thanks..

If anyone would pick one of the following to trust- May, Cameron, Johnson, Gove, Mogg or even Farage -then please do feel free!

Since we still don't know what we are getting, anything written will be a guess...

@mummy, So could you explain why YOU think it’s a good idea to leave the EU if no one has any idea of what the future will hold (I assume that means not even you?)?

I mean it’s all well and good to say that we dint know what we will get and therefore we don’t know the future. But surely, when you make a decision, to vite to leave the EU, for MPs to support or not TM’s WA, you have to base your decision on something. If that something cannot be prediction on how well the economy will fare, how do you decide? Whatvare you arguments that will show leaving the EU (whatever way you think would be best) will bring something positive to the future?

Sorry but I just don't belive in project fear.
These worse case scenarios.
Why is it so bad to Know that we have flourished as an economy since the Great depression and to 100% say even if the worse happened we would not be as bad as that.
All the forecasts do not say we will sink.
There are loads of variables that could be good that would improve things. But the experts can't predict these so have not included them.
Life is lived on taking a chance.
Leaving the house in the morning is taking a chance.
Entering into a relstionship/marriage. Is taking a chance.
Driving a car is taking a chance.
Getting a new job is taking a chance.
Leaves took a chance on outside the EU...

Buteo but you have signed out of living in the UK and are an ex pat...
Another Brit abroad here. I didn't "sign out" of living in the UK. Like thousands of people, my job and my family mean I move around. I didn't get a vote though. My whole status has been changed thanks to a referendum I couldn't take part in. If I had "signed out" surely it wouldn't affect me? It's almost as if you have absolutely no idea how the world works ...

And when you get a new job or car, do you not check whether you are going to get paid mire or less or whether the car is roadworthy before jumping in ? You've been sold a lemon and yet instead of being angry with the sellers, you're just happy to risk driving off in a potential death trap??

All the forecasts do not say we will sink.
Really? I have yet to see one that is positive, please enlighten me.

There are loads of variables that could be good that would improve things. But the experts can't predict these so have not included them.

You haven’t read the latest Treasury forecasts then, otherwise you’d know that the best case Leave scenario assumes that the UK has wide ranging trade agreements in place with the US, Australia, New Zealand, India, China, South America, the Gulf States etc.

So yes, a whole load of variables (which are pretty unlikely) that could improve the UK’s position have been modelled and included, and it still leaves the UK worse off.

FWIW, I don’t live my life by ignoring known risks that are detrimental to my well being.

You should only take a risk when there's a good possibility of gaining something better than what you had before.

We were ( past tense) the fifth strongest economy in the world.
Do you really think there's a chance this gamble means we will now ascend to 4 th, 3rd or 2nd place?

Before we paid 0.7% of GDP to get unrestricted access to a market on our doorstep worth $18.8 trillion of 500 million consumers. In addition that membership gave us established negotiated trading relationships with over 50 other countries.

And we are gambling that for what exactly? Where is the potential gain.

Funny how Brits abroad are quaintly termed “expats” but foreigners in the UK are “immigrants”

To use your analogies..

Leaving the house in the morning never to return and hoping for a better one is taking a huge risk.

Leaving an established relstionship/marriage to wander the streets to find a new one Is taking a huge risk.

Driving a kit car you've built from scratch rather than the second best one in the world is taking a significant risk.

Getting a new much less well paid job is taking a big risk.

It's great you are a Leaver who is trying to show others the potential benefits. I really desperately want to see some reassuring potential benefits that I can have faith in. But what are these elusive benefits? What does the country stand to gain and why aren't there at least initial signs of those benefits yet?

Quite a few of my friends from the EU never bothered to become a citizen, despite being here for long enough to do so, and then complained about the result. To me that makes no sense at all. If you don't exercise your rights, then you've no complaint.

Buteo a lot of Italian people I know who came here ages ago didn't get a UK passport because they didn't think it was necessary. They simply
Didn't foresee a scenario where their acquired permanent residence wouldn't be enough to vote in a question they never thought would be asked. Also it costs £2k or thereabouts to get a UK passport. Not everyone could afford it. It is the UK that has moved the goalpost. I cannot blame other Eu nationals for not being in a position to vote when the referendum came about.

There are loads of variables that could be good that would improve things. But the experts can't predict these so have not included them.

Says who ? Seriously , what are these good variables ?

Loletta that wasn’t me!

I completely understand why EU nationals don’t take UK citizenship - and not all EU countries allow dual nationality anyway.

Buteo sorry
Shouldn't skim through messages on MN when I'm getting ready for work