Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
Just on the matter of contempt proceedings. A) Doesn’t this have to go to the Privileges Committee B) How serious would sanction actually be? Expulsion (last happened 1947); suspension; locked in the tower; apology?

John Crace @JohnJCrace
I’d settle for locked in tower. That way if anyone wants to talk to him they will have to pay the £26.80 entrance fee

Crown v Parliament.

This sounds very 17th Century, Charles I ish .
I take it Crown now means Government, not Liz herself getting involved.

The government act in the name of the crown. But yes. We are starting to get messy.

My feeling is it was inevitable at some point with Brexit, its always been a case of how its going to manifest itself.

Please read the Withdrawal Act.

Labour Whips @labourwhips
BREAKING - the Govt tabled at the last moment an amdt. This implicitly accepts that Ministers have acted in contempt but seeks to kick the issue into the long grass, avoiding a judgement this side of the meaningful vote as well as seeking to challenge Parliaments ancient rights

So the filibustering has given the government enough time to table an amendment - does this mean the constitutional crisis has been averted for a day?

Nikki da Costa @nmdacosta
This attempts to buy time for the government and relies on the more usual process

And interestingly seeks an overarching assessment of the extent to which humble addresses can be used. Interesting to see where that goes.

does this mean the constitutional crisis has been averted for a day?

No fucking idea. I think that I am joined in this lack of knowledge not just by you, but also every political journalist on twitter.

And the BBC and ITV are both pushing ahead with their debates, with the two debaters in different places? You honestly couldn't make this up.

Another thing you couldn't make up is the fact that Mr Dodds ( Nigel not Ken) of the DUP co-signed the contempt motion!

Obvs because of the terms of the WA the DUP are voting against the government on the 11 th.
But it is amusing they are proactive participants in the contempt motion too.

That £1 billion of taxpayers money wasn't the best value for the Tories was it really?

Confidence, supply and errrr ...contempt!

Hmmmm I wonder if the govt obtained more confidential legal advice about whether the £1 billion is recoverable? Hopefully it will benefit NI anyway.

You know I still think history will find it especially shabby that Westminster tried to address the whole border issue without making a more supreme attempt to restore Stormont first. In fact that could have been used as a delaying tactic if needed surely.

www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/fintan-o-toole-never-mind-the-bollocks-here-s-brexit-1.3712284?fbclid=IwAR3ole-OEAnJn_8YoiJH23KxV8LxpIKseV34ejzjLRuyWqPjLyEOf_e3_S4

An exerpt from Fintan O'Toole's "Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain".

Tis very good reading.

does this mean the constitutional crisis has been averted for a day?

We have had so many crises, yet somehow the Govt just carries on, as though they have their 100 majority.

That extract is very, very good Math.
Interesting insights into the punk type motivations and analogy, plus sadopopulism.

It strikes me as a very male psychological response too.

The insight from Desert island discs, where people can't help
but bare their soul, was also confirmation of what we thought:

" On that programme, in a rare moment of self-reflection, Johnson spoke of the pleasure of making trouble that motivated his mendacity: “So everything I wrote from Brussels, I found was sort of chucking these rocks over the garden wall and I listened to this amazing crash from the greenhouse next door over in England as everything I wrote from Brussels was having this amazing, explosive effect on the Tory party, and it really gave me this, I suppose, rather weird sense of power.”

Interestingly that same sense of ( illusory) power is what some Leavers have been saying on another thread, basically we just wanted to shake the establishment up and pursue change -literally at any price.

Is Mr Dodds back off his own suspension yet?

Wasn't that Ian Paisley Jr?

Probably. My brain is fried.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Well not much going on today then....only a vote on whether govt in contempt and start of debate that could sink the govt or save it

Don't forget a preliminary opinion on the ECJ case due too. Due in about 10mins.

Yes Ian paisley. Im just getting my obnoxious white male gobby DUP MPs mixed up.

Thanks RTB I think you said you were going on a ( well deserved) holiday.

Don't leave us! It may have to be a working holiday.

Concise article from the viewpoint of a highly valuable queue jumping- net contributor here.

medium.com/@helenldecruz/net-contributors-45ffb90c7352?fbclid=IwAR3TE3DRRa4ZlCve1qD4fZiYD7-_9hz40Rcwx2wYBlPjBFzMy6k2qSGvR1k

Lonely it depends on just how much phone signal I have. I'm going to try to be about but if it kicks off the way I expect, Westminstenders is likely to get through a fair number of threads in the next week! And as interesting as a constitutional crisis is, this is the dream holiday planned before Brexit.

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Times

What next if Theresa May loses next Tuesday
- Many believe Mrs May will fight on. Some believe she will quit immediately
- Who will the Queen call as wont be clear who command maj in Commons
- Queen probably follows whatever TM recommends

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/405d2560-f746-11e8-8f64-ec083420809b
Brexit: Theresa May steps up small talk to woo Tory rebels

It’s this sort of vexatious nonsense in the HoC that makes people throw up their hands and give up on politics. A good old fistfight such as is seen in some other countries would be more entertaining and in some ways would be more honest.
qz.com/878024/parliament-fights-around-the-world-what-happens-when-politicians-get-tired-of-talking-in-photos/

Jim Pickard @pickardje
mind-boggling discussions taking place in cabinet about how to ration supplies entering UK by ferry in a no-deal scenario t.co/AcwByqxKrT ^via @GeorgeWParker and @JamesBlitz

UK can revoke A50 unilaterally AG rules

Darren McCaffrey @ darreneuronews
BREAK: Advocate General of European Court rules that UK CAN withdraw its Article 50 notification to leave the EU unilaterally. UK would not need permission of other member states.

Remember this is NOT the ECJ final ruling but I suspect it unlikely that it will disagree.

IMHO, This means May's deal is almost certainly dead and we will go to the wire over no deal now.

@jamesmatesitv

Advocate General of European Court rules that UK can withdraw its Article 50 notification to leave the EU unilaterally. UK would not need permission of other member states.

twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/1069867365897306112