Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Wow.

The ECJ does overrule the AG occasionally but it's rare. I used to come across it at work.

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
Important, but not too important.

The still-to-come decision of the Court is the one which matters, and the Court can, and sometimes does, disagree with the Advocate General.

This is an opinion and is not binding

Here's the press release

This also means a Tory leadership battle is more likely as the hard right will seek to gain control of this power.

To recap this morning so far (at 8.30am) the FT are reporting about how Chris Grayling is trying to manage demand for space on cross channel ships in a no deal situation where there is an 87% reduction in capacity and it will be a bit like USSR with shortages or it looks like we have the complete power to remain with no need to renegotiate our terms or conditions.

There are 3 conditions to the unilateral revocation. The EU member states have final word really.

I notice that it also states that "this possibility continues to exist until such time that the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded"

So that will make the Government all the more keen the get parliament to sign it off, so that they can sign it

That would tie in with the supposed purpose of A50: to allow time for the negotiation of the issues around the WA, so once they're completed, its purpose has "expired".

Robert Peston @peston
UK can simply change its mind anout leaving EU and withdraw Article 50 letter (before 29 March 2019) - says EU’s Advocate General in advice to ECJ - which does not have to follow AG’s advice but normally does. This will create a climate in Westminster that “all things are...

...possible” on a day when @theresa_may is desperate to argue that only her Brexit plan is the right and appropriate path for the UK. Every day brings a new disaster for her, on the road to that nation-changing vote next Tuesday.

Also reflecting on this:

George Eaton @ georgeeaton
It’s not the revocation of Article 50 that the UK needs at the moment but its extension (to allow time for election/referendum/Norway etc).

If the ECJ rule in a similar fashion, the fact that we would need to negotiate an extension means that a People’s Vote is more unlikely than it was yesterday and the chances of remaining have gone up.

Pondering this, as I drove back from my swim (Venus was amazingly visible, for any astrologers around) ...

I'm vaguely minded to write to my (Labour) MP suggesting they only need to worry about one thing at a time, and that on that basis the WA is not a good deal and I would not only understand if they voted against it, but that if that led to a no-deal Brexit, I for one would not blame them.

If we crash into a no-deal Brexit it's a 100% Tory mess - it's hard to see how Labour could be blamed.

Just this little persons view, anyway.

That would tie in with the supposed purpose of A50: to allow time for the negotiation of the issues around the WA, so once they're completed, its purpose has "expired".

Precisely why I think May's deal is now dead in the water.

It can't be an abusive process. So, leaving states can't play with it.

How does the EU have the final word @Cailleach1? And remember, this is the advice to judges not the judgement.

Venus was incredible this morning. I think it's visible again tomorrow for anyone who hasn't seen it.

@RedToothBrush Venus did look fab.

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
Curveball just as Commons makes biggest decision in decades - weakens ability of Government to say to Remainy/Single Mkt MPs that No Deal will be the consequence of voting down the deal - unilateral revocation of A50 possible...

I guess we will all be holding our breath on Monday at 8am.

And Mars higher and higher and redder and redder in the evenings. What portent is this?

Well, if a state says it will withdraw and resubmit when it is ready. That would be abusive.

Remember DD on Marr when he said they agreed something in writing, but they don't have to keep their word. Such discretion in the UK at the moment. Not.

Has to be in line UK constitution. Interesting if someone takes a case and won it in UK.

Law meets politics.

While the car was defrozzing ...

Not bad from a phone, really.

Been years since I drew up a horoscope

What potent is this?

Well Venus is about seduction and desire. She is more important to women.

This obviously is a sign that May will be deeply affected by the temptation and desire of women to remain in the EU.

Obviously.

In no way is this utter bollocks.

@Cailleach1 , if we rip up the GFA with no deal we will also get a reputation for abusing legal obligations. If we crash out with no deal all our legal agreements get tanked. Which would also be an example of abuse of contract.
Apart from making us look a bit silly for a short while, suspending /reversing A50 is hardly the same.

red I spat my coffee out at that
Great news, both on AG and that Venus should be about tomorrow.

What time is the debate today?

I'm getting a bit lost trying to track key times and dates.

In no way is this utter bollocks.

So is Lord of the Rings ...

Anyway, "Venus" and "Mars" are very much the Roman interpretation ... they go way back. Pretty certain swans get involved somewhere.

Horary is the art of drawing up a horoscope to answer a specific question. The idea is to cast a horoscope ("look at the hour ...") for the moment the question was divined.

back on terra firma, I find it fascinating that there's currently no mentioned of the A50 news on the BBC. I'm betting here and now that it never makes it above the fold all day.

I suspect that if Brexit doesn't come to pass, there will be some fresh underwear needed at BBC towers.

Mars signifies the wrath of Rees Mogg. Beware.

and what is on Monday 8am? argh! sorry!