Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Math this is so well put...
"They seek to sign umpteen binding international agreements in the near future and they are contemplating walking away from one that earned the Nobel prize for the two politicians who made it happen... Do they think nobody will notice?"

^ This

Wrt Cox's admission to Benn, and the idea of walking away from international treaties - it's sounding more and more like the run-up to the invasion of Czechoslovakia.

For hardcore Brexiters this has always been about a fudge they can get out. May has simply played moderate recently to get transition.

Cox is essentially a hard Brexiter supporting May.

The upshot will be UK in legal quagmire and ending up with no deal after transition. That is what they want.

May will resign after we Brexit, as planned, to be superseded by a hard Brexiteer who trashes our relationship with the EU.

The deal is about getting transition for a short time. Post deal, the same arguments will continue and the clamour to walk away with no deal will increase as Brexiteers get more cocky that we can go it alone with more time to prepare.

This is want it is so naive to vote for it for fear of no deal: it’s a trap. You could be effectively voting for no deal.

I think I agree with you, Tatiana. Bugger.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
A sign of dire straits: the PM had dinner in Members’ Dining Room tonight - the first time she’s been seen in there for 10 years. An unimpressed Tory MP: “She didn’t know what to do, or where to get her food. I’ve never seen anything more desperate”.

BREAKING:

Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchard
Bercow: "There is an arguable case that contempt has been committed." Motion will be debated as first business tomorrow

Translation: There will now be a debate tomorrow to decide if there has been contempt of parliament.

What does this mean? What could be the consequences?

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Sources suggest that either Lidington or Cox could face suspension from the House and as a cabinet minister should they be found in contempt - for five days and then 20 days. Would either of them have enough loyalty to the PM to stand for that?

Cox suggests in one answer that he would - "I stand here before you, fully understanding the nature of the House's concern, not to say indignation. I accept that. It is a deeply unsatisfactory position. I am doing so...only because I do believe it is against the public interest."

Also this is important:

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Blimey - I clocked one of first bits of Future Framework was promise to stay in ECHR (was being pondered by Team May end 2016 as manifesto plan to quit) AG Cox: “ECHR already protected by Belfast agreement, it’s embedded in the BA and would have to be preserved for that reason”

So in reply to @ChrisPhilpMP AG Cox confirms that UK can not/ will never now leave the ECHR, which was something actively floated by May and team in 2016, because of the Belfast Agreement/GFA & now hardwired into Brexit Deal

This strikes me as an incredibly important point. Remember the unpopular court cases that helped build anti-EU/ Brexit feeling were more often than not EctHR cases and nowt to do with EU. Brexit now means we can’t leave ECHR, tho Cox says it’s Good Friday Agreement / BA more.

In other words, leaving the ECHR actively requires us to break the GFA. And conversely, leaving the ECHR would break the GFA.

I can't think why Dominic Raab, the man who spent time in the Ministry of Justice trying to get rid of the ECHR (and not getting very far) is just so opposed to the GFA...

Esther Webber @estwebber
^Everyone: looking forward to that constitutional crisis next week
Bercow: hold my beer^

My holiday booked in April, for next week, is looking well timed.

John Bercow has ruled there is a case for contempt of Parliament proceedings, over legal advice, debate tomo!

He is fantastic speaker and i'm very glad he is there, the government cannot bully him.

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Absolutely incredible scenes in the Commons tonight as MPs deliberately and spuriously extend a completely unrelated adjournment debate, in order to give colleagues time to table amendments to a possible contempt motion in order to get the government out of the woods... I think?!

Filibustering to stop a comtempt motion?

Oh yes and this gem:

Chris Williamson MP @DerbyChrisW
Debate on whether the govt is in contempt of parliament will take place in the morning, which could result in a referral to the Standards and Privileges Committee.

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Ah yes, the Standard and Privileges Committee, where Labour are a member short because the leadership blocked Jess Phillips from taking the place ...

Wow.

I thought an mp asked the attorney about GFA and what legal advice was needed if agreement was broken?

Robert Peston @Peston
Cox’s big argument is we would have strong legal case at the European Court of Justice to argue backstop cannot be permanent under Article 50 if it ever looked to be becoming permanent. He is asking Brexiters to believe that the ECJ would rule for them. This is a very good joke

Amazing.

Esther Webber @estwebber
Conservative MPs falling about laughing as they assist in effective filibuster while govt gets an amendment to the contempt motion down. Not very pretty

Its all just shameful isn't it? All of it.

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
^Yes it is a filibuster. Alan Duncan talked about steam engines and their invention. He's bursting into fits of giggles in this debate.
Why? Cos govt in a panic, buying time as they are trying to work out what amendment to table tonight to the contempt motion.^

It's like JUST A MINUTE...Parliament stylee. But with lots and lots of repetition and hesitation and deviation.

John Crace @JohnJCrace
This isn’t a good look for a ‘smooth and orderly’ Brexit

Remember this from David Allen Green? He's said it right from the start.

David Allen Green
‏**@davidallengreen**

David Allen Green Retweeted Sky News Breaking
Still convinced that May made this a red line a year ago after confusing the ECJ with the European Court of Human Rights.

Sky News Breaking
@SkyNewsBreak
Michel Barnier says the role of the European Court of Justice in the issue of citizens' rights is a "stumbling block"

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
28 Sep 2017

Some Whitehall insiders tell me that they also suspect this.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
If the Crown ignores the will of Parliament we will now have, at long last, the first genuine constitutional crisis of Brexit.

So far Executive/Legislature/Judiciary have resolved respective differences.

But now we have a stark, binary contradiction.

Crown v Parliament.

Steve Bullock @GuitarMoog
Hold on to your copies of ‘Introduction to the Study of the Law of the Constitution’ folks. This is getting very Dicey.

Whooooppiiieeeeee!

Do these people not hear themselves? They seek to sign umpteen binding international agreements in the near future and they are contemplating walking away from one that earned the Nobel prize for the two politicians who made it happen... Do they think nobody will notice?

If they walk away from the GFA then they have no hope of securing any international deals ever. Plus they will put Northern Ireland back on a 'war' footing. I fear for my Irish friends, and can only apologise for the thick fuckers we've elected.

And Geoffrey Cocks (sic) should look at himself when he describes the opposition as 'braying'. Cunt.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._V._Dicey
Next week we will all be doing a lot of googling of Dicey by the sound of it.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Told Labour’s Kevin Barron will be the deciding vote on the contempt motion on the Privileges Committee. He has been removed from Standards but Privileges Committee has yet to be replaced.

What to make of this?

Britain Elects
‏***@britainelects*
4m4 minutes ago

On "implementing in full the deal negotiated by Theresa May and agreed by the EU":

Support: 26%
Oppose: 42%

On "having a 'no deal' or 'clean break' Brexit":

Support: 34%
Oppose: 41%

via @ComRes, 30 Nov - 02 Dec

Britain Elects
‏***@britainelects*
3m3 minutes ago

On "the UK remaining a full member of the EU":

Support: 44%
Oppose: 45%

--

On "holding a second referendum on whether to Remain or Leave":

Support: 40%
Oppose: 50%

via ComRes, 30 Nov - 02 Dec

Britain Elects‏
@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago

On "asking the EU to renegotiate the current deal if the House of Commons votes against it on 11th December":

Support: 45%
Oppose: 25%

--

On "extending the date when the UK leaves the EU beyond 29th March 2019":

Support: 34%
Oppose: 46%

via ComRes, 30 Nov - 02 Dec

Ha! Well wouldn't you know. No public support in reality for any way forward. Just a confused mess of disagreement.

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Brace for impact: Advocate General’s opinion on @JolyonMaugham case over whether Article 50 can be unilaterally revoked due at 9am CET tomorrow. It’s a non-binding opinion and ECJ judges make the final decision, but it could have a big impact on UK Parliament’s meaningful vote.

OOOOOhhhh even more fun tomorrow.

One more:

UK, ComRes poll:

EU membership referendum

Remain: 49% (-2)
Leave: 51% (+2)

+/- vs. 14/11/18 – 15/11/18

Field work: 30/11/18-02/12/18
Sample size: N/A

#Brexit

Tom Peck @tompeck
The BBC and ITV still insisting Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will both be in two places at once on Sunday night.

Can a "technological solution" be invented in time? Hologram perhaps?

If not, we risk falling into the Bravo+1 backstop.

Brexit in a nutshell.

Somewhere in the back of my mind i never quite believed Parliament would get a meaningful vote omg!.

This is an utter car crash. So glad I've been up to my eye balls and haven't been able to get onto twitter or bbc parliament today.

Keir Starmer @Keir_Starmer

Ministers have repeatedly refused to release the Attorney General’s full and final legal advice on their Brexit deal, as ordered by Parliament.

We have been left with no option but to press ahead with contempt. This is our cross-party motion that will be debated tomorrow.

When/if full legal advice published how long will it take to wade through 50,000 pages ( or was it words?) And apparently it could take a long while to actually get to see said full document so too late for 11 th anyhow. Wtf?

The current Privileges Committee membership:

Sir Kevin Barron (Labour)
Douglas Chapman (Scottish National Party)
Mr Christopher Chope (Conservative)
Kate Green (Labour)
Simon Hart (Conservative)
Bridget Phillipson (Labour)
John Stevenson (Conservative)