Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

.

Think Norway++ is EEA/EFTA with agricultural agreement and CU.

Means we’d be out of the ECJ and CFP (and CAP I think?), would keep FOM, be in the SM, and pay in without a seat at the table.

But as a (new!) Norwegian client recently said to DH: “Brexit? What the fuck were you guys thinking?”

MissionofMercy Main differences Norway++ vs current WA:

• Full FOM vs No FOM
• Fully frictionless trade vs not fully - probably 1-2 hours wait
• NI treated exactly the same as the rest of the UK, so DUP accept it (grudgingly)- no borders between it and GB or the UK vs NI treated differently and DUP would vote against
• Would be under EFTA court with a lot of clout vs ECJ with little clout
• Would have EFTA trade deals with non-EU countries vs having to ask countries with EU deals to treat us as if we hadn't left
• Probably have services in Norway++ vs hardly anything defined in WA
• Probably have passporting too vs limited City access
• Membership of important agencies, ERASMUS tec vs probably none in WA

Thank you Big Choc Frenzy, and Buteo.

I'll have a chew on that. Still don't see much advantage to N+ as opposed to staying in apart from optics. But as I say I will need to process your very kind information.

My apologies, I meant to ask what is the difference to Staying in EU and Norway with all the pluses!

It is just so mind boggling now. But I will get there!

Thanks.

The difference between Norway ++ and Staying in the EU is that we get a say in what the laws and regulations look like if we stay in. Lawmaker not Lawtaker and all that.

Exactly. No difference apart from no say- but I suppose it's a step removed from the EU and therefore less risk of further integration. Can't say I see the point.

It's obvious isn't it? no brainer - we should REMAIN in the EU.

bellini,

Thanks. Perhaps if UK had decided to be like Norway from the beginning it would have been better that way. It looks to me like we will have to contribute, accept FOM and will have no MEPs or other voice apart from the usual lobbying.

I think Norway is relatively rich, small population, doesn't really care too much about what the EU is up to as long as their own situation doesn't change much.

I could be wrong. But then again UK might get a couple of ++++++s added on that Norway doesn't have.

It still doesn't sound too different to staying within the EU though, that is what baffles me. But then again it is totally baffling.

So grateful for all the insights here.

{It's obvious isn't it? no brainer - we should REMAIN in the EU.}
Ideally yes BUT, the UK has buggered about for 40 odd years and doesn't really want to play the same game as some of the others so remaining would continue the 'aggro' as the likes of ERG would be forever causing grief.
At least a Norway +++? would not have the UK at the table so not disrupt proceedings. The EU could dictate and leave it up to the UK to sort itself out.

You have to consider the temperaments of different nationalities. Not as a specific, but generally. The more Northerly countries have different outlooks on life compared to the South. French are quite different to Germans and Brits for example.

Would FOM under a Norway + deal not negate the reasons (apparently) that many voted to leave though?

Can't see that going down too well with a certain cohort myself.

I agree that EU can wash its hands of UK and just let them at it. Sad times, as UK was very respected in EU, but that was never publicised.

Media is a disgrace. Much more reasoned information here than there AFAIS and thanks everyone.

what is the difference to Staying in EU and Norway with all the pluses!

Norway+++ means we “leave the EU”, as per the ballot paper.

Anyone else think all this Norway/PV option stuff is pointless as May will get the WA through?

I think she'll lose by less than 30 votes on the first, a re run in January, win by a handful.

Would FOM under a Norway + deal not negate the reasons (apparently) that many voted to leave though?

They have their wish anyway... net EU migration lowest since 2012 and sinking fast.

So it is all for optics so.

I find it very sad that politics/policy etc. is so dismissed by many in England (UK). But you can actually see why that is now.

No connects. No real information, no interest, no nothing.

"Just get on with it" sums it up for me.

Bigchoc
Northern Ireland MPs ......
Sinn Fein do not take their seats in Westminster - there are 7 of them
(I have not heard of any of them)
DUP have 10 seats
(I've heard of the one who is suspended
Lady Hermon is independent

In the suspended Northern Ireland assembly DUP & Sinn Fein each have 27 and the balance is a variety
Arlene is the only party leader who is a household name

Media is not great in UK. No great analysis, it is either left, right or downright provocative and ridiculous. BBC has been found out too for their bias.

To me, there is no connect with politics at all. I would suggest that very few have watched the total shambolic drama that goes on in Westminster debates on the commons TV live or whatever it is called now.

But that suits some.

There is nothing to entice people to be engaged is there? No just headlines in the right/left/tabloid papers.

Honestly I am very saddened by it all.

I don’t think May will get the WA through, but she may well get Norway+ through. Which would be a terrible shame as if we’re doing that we may as well keep our seat and our votes.

Tatiana.

I agree, but I am not sure why, if you understand me. I personally cannot see any difference to Norway ++ and staying within the EU either.

But it may be that the EU have had enough, and will say ok, and/or Westminster may be able to sell it as actually Leaving, but not Leaving, but giving us freedom, but not giving us freedom.

Mad times for optics!

Belated place marking

A Bit of a random thing but I just saw this job advertised. £30k doesn't seem a huge amount for what looks like a big job..

"1. China (Trade): China will soon become the largest global commercial aviation market (by passenger numbers) and is developing its own industry and aircraft to compete with Airbus and Boeing. These programmes offer significant opportunities and challenges for UK suppliers. Besides cultural, commercial and IP hurdles, a key aspect will be positively leveraging the wider bilateral political agenda. This role requires political awareness, the ability to build strong relationships, and close working with our overseas Post. "

"

1. USA (Trade and Investment): Focused on increasing UK content into Boeing and related propulsion and systems companies. Using the impetus of the Boeing-UK partnership, there are many opportunities to work with in-market specialists, the DIT network, BEIS, and the trade association to deliver significant wins. Challenges include conveying UK competiveness, accessing US companies, and identifying clear targets. The openness of the US market means that it is ultra-competitive and UK companies must have a compelling value proposition. That said, relatively small export orders can be transformative for UK companies over the long term. "

Seems to me it's thought worthwhile investing £30k to try and save UK aerospace industry?

www.indeed.co.uk/m/viewjob?jk=4f3be6d12bf475d2&from=serp