Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

I have to say that I find it amusing that ROI Government kept the momentum going re the Border with NI and the Good Friday Agreement.

No big drama, no fighting, just facts. Meanwhile the UK is still floundering around and will have to oblige. They probably never even realised this would happen.

There is a lesson to be learned there somehow, that many might not like to hear either. Get your facts sorted, and then make the decision.

I am still very confused regarding Norway ++, staying in, or WA, or No Deal.

Is it any wonder most have zoned out by now!

Parking myself here...

Corbyn steps up and does some opposing for a change. Very unlikely

I guess there’s a first time for everything. But like you I’m not holding my breath.

Will be an interesting debate, neither are natural TV performers but i think Corbyn has passion (often for the wrong things) and May can hardly ever give a straight answer, not that Corbyn fails this either!

also, a lot can happen in 10 days, May could well regret asking for this.

Also another random thing. In one of the Radio 4 news broadcasts this afternoon, immigration was the number 1 headline item.

"Non -EU net migration at 248,000 ... is the highest for 14 years and the result of the Government’s failure to take effective action to reduce it over recent years.”
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: “EU migrants have been leaving in larger numbers since the referendum, and net inflows have greatly decreased.
“The lower value of the pound is likely to have made the UK a less attractive place to live and work and economic conditions in several of the top countries of origin for EU migrants have improved.”

More detail here in the Shropshire Star- not usual source but seems to have migration watch figures.

www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2018/11/29/non-eu-net-migration-up-while-eu-figure-continues-to-fall/

The thought of the questions on a (potential) PV ballot paper makes me anxious. Justine Greening saying a PV could be on May 30, with these 3 questions, throws up lots of unknowns.

Would the EU let the UK extend anyway?
What would happen about the EU elections in May?
What if the vote ended in an even 3-way split? What then?

What could be on the ballot paper in a second EU referendum:
Which terms do you want the United Kingdom to adopt for its future relationship with the European Union?
1. Current terms – Remaining in the EU on current terms
2. The government’s terms – Accepting the terms that have been negotiated
3. No-deal terms – Leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/second-brexit-referendum-could-be-held-on-may-30-says-justine-greening_uk_5bffec2be4b0864f4f6ad1ac?guccounter=1

May will never agree to broadening the debate to include Nicola, as someone who would promote the Remain argument.

As an accomplished debater and public speaker, Nicola would have May (and Corbyn) for breakfast. And May knows that.

Ditto with Leaders debates in the run up to a GE.

That prick Tim "Weatherspoon" is on QT now. Saying if we have no deal then we will be better off to the tune of £39billion from 30th March. And it'll get even better from then on. Huge cheers from the Penzance audience.

Lib Dem woman advocating PV. She got huge cheer too.

I'd have said about 30% approval for Tim Prick and 50% for any opposite view. LOOK at the audience.

The trouble is that it's not the politically aware people who go to QT who actually swing things, it's the facebook sheep.

How can a thick cunt like that possibly be behind such a huge company?

I thought twice about posting that but then he said he wanted Boris as PM.

Which terms do you want the United Kingdom to adopt for its future relationship with the European Union?
1. Current terms – Remaining in the EU on current terms
2. The government’s terms – Accepting the terms that have been negotiated
3. No-deal terms – Leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms

Yet again I must point out that option 2 does not yet exist.

The government has yet to negotiate any terms with the EU regarding the future relationship - in fact, these discussions cannot even begin until the UK leaves on 29th March. The agreement that is before Parliament is the Withdrawal Agreement - i.e. payment of the outstanding commitment (£39bn), the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the backstop agreement for the UK-ROI border.

The Future Partnership Declaration is just the 'To Do' list. May admitted as much this morning (29th Nov) at the Parliamentary Committee meeting.
e.g. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). The political declaration just talks about cooperation, not full membership. - May says the exact relationship has to be negotiated.
Medicines Agency? - to be negotiated - and so on from Agencies A to Z, all to be negotiated/agreed/discussed/clarified over the next 2 years.

Future trade terms, the replacement for FoM, anything relating to services and recognition of professional qualifications etc - everything has yet to be negotiated.

Option 2:
Fanaticism
Can't find other words to describe it

Which terms do you want the United Kingdom to adopt for its future relationship with the European Union?
1. Current terms – Remaining in the EU on current terms
2. The government’s terms – Accepting the terms that have been negotiated
3. No-deal terms – Leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms

Option 3 does not exist either. There is no 'WTO Terms' document sitting in a drawer in Whitehall waiting to be dusted off on 29th March if the UK leaves with no transition period agreed.

If this happens, the UK loses all 750 Agreements that it currently has in place with the rest of the world (through EU membership) and has to start with a blank piece of paper. The idea that some of the current EU terms could be rolled over into a UK-ROW agreement, or UK-Country X agreement has already met objections from Canada, Argentina and others.

For the most part, WTO does not set terms and tariffs. WTO sets the rules framework under which countries trade, not the individual tariff or quota levels.

But since the question actually refers to the future relationship with the EU option 3 is irrelevant. To trade with the EU, the UK will trade under whatever conditions the EU sets.

Layla Moran comes across well imo.

Havana A50 only includes a framework for a future relationship,
because negotiating any relationship could take several years,
probably only 3-4 years for Norway++,
but 5-15 years for an FTA

All this talk of Norway, May's deal etc etc. As it stands, there's no majority for May's Deal, none for a 2nd referendum therefore we're heading for a no deal barring some sort of miracle now I believe.

Havana Best not to claim things aren't an option just because you don't like them and there isn't a plan.
That didn't stop Leave winning the last ref

We can't live in a lovely Remain bubble, where Leavers are a minority, or can just be ordered what to do by the professional mc

No Deal exists because it is the A50 default, unless the govt / HoC specifically agree to do something else
It is a cliff edge disaster, but it will happen automatically, unless something else does

WTO terms are an attempt to manage No Deal.
They won't avoid the disaster
They exist because a country can use an emergency waiver to continue on its its proposed terms, when as in the UK's case, these have not yet been agreed by other members.

The WTO has few practical sanctions, other than members countries choose to apply, like Trump
The WTO Court is almost non-functional, because the US has blocked the appointment of new judges for many years - so including under Obama too

The EU with 28 members traded for several years using the quotas and schedules it has with only 15 members

PV still looks dangerous
The polls are swinging wildly and vary a lot depending on the question & choices - if we have any by then

Labour say they will only go for a PV if all other options fail, so there may be only remain vs No Deal left

Even if it is called when No Deal seems unpopular with the public, what swings will happen during the 4 months or so that a referendum takes to organise, run campaigns and finally vote ?

There is still NO reliable lead for Remain
and the enduring popularity for No Deal among Leave opinion makes it politically very difficult for MPs to order it left out of a PV

Europe Elects@EuropeElects

UK, Deltapoll poll:

EU membership referendum

Remain: 48% (-2)

Leave without deal: 52% (+2)

+/- with regular Leave/Remain question, end of October 2018

Field work: 26/11/18 – 27/11/18
Sample size: 1,013

What's the point of having a TV debate? TM will carry on giving her non answers that really only say that she will only do what she wants. I don't think she has an answer for if her deal doesn't win the vote & will drag the country over her cliff edge & leave us well & truly shafted. The only hope is that there is a vote of no confidence in the Government, Labour are asked to form a minority government & team up with SDP, SNP & DUP, ask for an extension of Article 50 & hold a second referendum with remain being one of the options. I voted leave, but after seeing the way we are going to be dragged down by the deal on offer & the treatment the negotiations are getting from the EU would vote to remain unless there was a much better deal on offer should there be a second referendum.

The polls are swinging wildly and vary a lot depending on the question & choices

This has been true over the last two years plus (before and after the ref). Views of significant chunks of the electorate spin like a weather vane in a storm.

It's the most basic reason for not relinquishing EU membership right now. There simply isn't enough consistency and consensus.

A decision of this magnitude should have a clearer vision and a larger majority for it. What's the harm in waiting until there is more support?

LouiseCollins
The reality of it was that 5 years ago + he was making the argument when almost nobody else was.

And that is why he should not have been on QT every week.

Your comment gives the lie to your attempt to argue that because the vote was 52-48 including people like Farage and Hannan and Co was justified at the time they were invited to appear.

He was given a platform when his views were way off to the right of mainstream. Why did this happen?