Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Country still hopelessly split, imo

Still doesn't work, but I'm on iPad
(and off to bed now)

bigchoc, I can't work out whether you have misunderstood or deliberately avoided my point regarding the EU position on UK remaining so I guess I'll park that one.

People on this thread HAVE said they would vote WA over remain even though they would prefer to remain ideally. I distinctly remember because I was bemused and cross and ranted about it.

If you were talking about me BigChoc when you talked about the Nazi comparison being extreme, I think you have misunderstood. What I was saying was that there must have been a lot of people who didn't go along with it, but despaired about what they could do effectively. This is how some of us feel now - we feel like giving up, we can march and protest, but it doesn't seem to be enough.

You then go on to say
However, we must be watchful and remember
not to let judges and civil servants be called saboteurs, traitors, Enemies of the People
not to scapegoat groups for economic / housing / healthcare problems

About the Enemies of the people stuff: I protested to my then MP and to Theresa May. Got no answer from either of them, my then MP declaring that she'd never received the letter, which quite frankly I doubt. I had already decided that I would do my utmost to see her voted out, and in that we succeeded, and due to May's stupidity in calling an election, 3 years sooner than we expected.
I personally don't scapegoat people, but enough people do, enough go along with it. It does take courage to stand up and be counted. As for Talkstotrees asking whether to boycott wetherspoons, the answer has to be yes, and the friends have to be told why. You risk being called a fanatic, but you have to stand by your principles or otherwise they aren't principles, but it's not easy to go against the crowd. And sometime the best course of action really isn't clear.

Key questions

Actually, I'm not going to park it...

The 52% statistic is irrelevant to my point because I'm talking about British/EU citizens, of which there are approx 60 million, of which 17 million voted leave 2 years ago. Children don't get a vote but they are citizens.

Of course EU can't tell a government what to do, I didn't say they could or should. I said refusing a request to revoke would be selling EU citizens (the British ones) down the river. Agreeing to a request to revoke is not telling a government what to do (refusing it would be closer to telling it what to do!)

Thegirl I did answer your point
The EU wouldn't be letting people down if the people don't want to Remain - or only want to do so if the alternative is the absolute disaster of a No Deal.

They would only be letting people down if there was an enthusiastic majority who genuinely wanted to be in the EU,

This would be like not letting a partner back after you've split, when he says "I hate you and you're ugly, but on balance maybe I'd rather be with you than homeless and broke"

If the ECJ say we need the agreement of the EU to revoke,
then we need the agreement of 27 governments

The EU Commission, imo, wants the UK to stay, but it is the 27 governments who would vote on this

Anyway, the cross-party emergency Plan B is reportedly Norway++
which the EU wanted in the first place.
So they'd agree to that

We kept saying if May had only gone for Norway, she could have satisfied 70% of the pu blic.
Well, it would be right at the last moment, but the MPs might manage that.

She's travelling the country so that people put pressure on their MPs having listened directly to her about the deal.
She recognised that not engaging with the public was one of the reasons for the disaster at the General Election. She doesn't want to make that mistake again.

She's also trying to win public support for her tenacity/stubbornness.

John McDonnell has said a second Brexit referendum “might be an option we seize upon”, admitting for the first time remain should be on the ballot paper and insisting that “no deal” should not.

Labour’s shadow chancellor said he would vote to remain in any new referendum and that offering the chance to vote on no deal would carry too high a risk.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/labour-seize-second-brexit-vote-option-john-mcdonnell

I might be able to vote Labour again.

I find the statement reported on SKY this morning that the full text of the backstop agreement will not be published, but only a summary rather suspicious and worrying. So far almost nothing of what Theresa has said and published is 'straight up' and either honest or true.
There are of course many millions in the UK who are very 'pro Europe' either by family or in their working lives. There is obviously a very large contingent who are 'on the fence' but not against, just regarding it as being 'there', like water bills.
Then there is a significant majority in 'politics' being buoyed up by an assortment of 'leave' supporters whose motives to leave are varied but only agree in actually leaving.
Getting there 3 major factions together to produce a significant cohesive 'pro Europe' viewpoint is IMO near impossible and in that respect, and for the good of the EU the UK should leave.
Like whichever general who was in charge of the Gulf war or whichever, (misquote) it's all very well going in with guns blazing but the war will only be over when hearts and minds have been won.
Sadly after 2 1/2 years we haven't quite finished stage 1 and are STILL, not saying to the EU what the UK wants to achieve in a realistic manner. The 'press' is still being disrespectful.

Lonely. Thanks for the 'credit' but I am not proud of it and happy for it to be used.

I might be able to vote Labour again too!

Might.

Sadly, I cannot vote labour - despite being an actual member in the past.

Whilst they are on their current trajectory, with Corbyn in charge, I cannot vote for Labour.

I will be voting Lib Dem I think, in any GE in the near future

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
Very interesting that loyal Oliver Letwin MP, while supportive of May’s deal says if it falls, need to avoid No Deal, there will be a majority for Norway plus, including Opposition and SNP - but would require Government to adopt it

In my constituency the only vote that can oust Tories is LibDem anyway.

However if Labour backed any option with remain on the table there's a chance my and other former Labour party allegiances could revive.

John Simpson @ johnsimpsonnews
An ambassador friend of mine says ‘Boris was far & away the worst foreign secretary I’ve served under. Not stupid - I could have put up with that - but unashamedly lazy.’

You don't say.

Jeez Norway on the table as plan B???

But but but if it hadn't been for the red lines we could have gone for Norway plus at the outset. What about :

1. Impossibility of a frictionless Irish/UK/ Northern Irish border.

1. Free movement of people, goods, capital etc always a prerequisite for access to the internal market plus payment of funds to the bloc ( probably as much or more than the current 0.7% of GDP).

Bangs head on wall again...

It’s part of May’s general fuckwittage that there appears to be more support in Parliament for Norway+ than her negotiated WA.

That’s the problem with being swayed by Brexit loons.