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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

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lonelyplanetmum · 27/11/2018 21:11

Fighting for what you believe in is how i was bought up

Me too but I do feel I've be worn down now. Although I'll go on marches and fight to the end I'm starting to agree that we have "collectively shit the bed" so badly that perhaps the only alternative is to leave.

Its a bit paradoxical that there are more signs than ever (even on the Brexit Broadcasting Corp) that logic and the economy justify remaining yet Remainers seem more worn down.The Duracell bunny Brexiteers by contrast keep on running.

Quietrebel · 27/11/2018 21:18

The Duracell bunny Brexiteers by contrast keep on running.

Of course they're running after their carrot (Trump)

Quietrebel · 27/11/2018 21:22

Please let's not give up. Yes it's bad, yes every single Remain friend I have is either pissed off or depressed. Every single EU friend I have is leaving, pissed off or depressed. However NOW is not the time to let the vultures take over.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 27/11/2018 21:24

I’m very behind on this thread but want to say Flowers for your wife DGR.

I had a similar thing said to me years ago, in different circs. It is shocking and hurtful.

1tisILeClerc · 27/11/2018 21:40

There is of course the situation that other than top political level, those who have colleagues and friends all across the EU do not want the UK to leave but the actions taken by the UK government are forcing the change on us.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 21:57

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
PM’s aides are concerned that Dominic Raab and David Davis could table amendments frustrating the bill on ECHR and equalities laws

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
An ally of David Davis gets in touch: “Tell them thanks for the idea”

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BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 22:04

Hazard It's not about the EU's irritation and hurt feelings as such.
It's the effect this has on their actions towards us

We have already seen France, Spain, Cyprus slapping down the UK, mainly for domestic political gain.
They would not have done so before

jas, missmoon I get the impression that you feel the UK is entitled to be part of the EU and that you are prepared to fight the EU until they agree.
That doesn't work when they are bigger than you

They do NOT need us more than we need them.
Don't be under any illusion as to which party is facing disaster after March.

UK Remainers should not assume that what the UK can offer the EU still outweighs the serious disruption that many EU members fear a divided UK would cause,
the continued Uk obstruction towards further development of EU institutions
The Uk has been a pain in the arse ever since joining

The UK's standing has now plummeted
There is widespread disgust at the insults from UK politicians - many people can read English
The country has been a laughing stock for over a year, not just in the EU

What German colleagues tell me, what I hear in international conferences, is that they no longer want the UK any more
There is always sympathy & goodwill towards UK expats, but the UK itself has become Billy No Mates
EU politicians must have started getting this feedback.

If the ECJ vote that we can unilaterally revoke, then your wish for a PV makes sense, if Labour ever support it

The UK still wouldn't Remain exactly as before, because it would lost all of its prestige and would have to debuild from scratch
The lost agencies & business are probably lost forever, too.

If the ECJ decide revocation can only be by agreement, then Remain is in deep trouble,
because some of the E27 are affected very little by Brexit, but are pissed off and alarmed by the UK
They could veto

The EU Commission would try to persuade members to let the UK keep all optouts, but it may not succeed.
There may be demands for several billion in compensation, too

Some political commentators here now say that Norway++ is better than letting the UK Revoke, because this gives them what they want from the UK, without the aggro.

This also fits in with the cross-party Plan B,
so imo now it is the most feasible solution, that would eventually satisfy the most people in the UK and the EU

Note:
if the UK crashes out with No Deal, after your game of chicken, then a disfunctional basket case would be way back in the queue to rejoin under Article 49.

TatianaLarina · 27/11/2018 22:12

jas, missmoon I get the impression that you feel the UK is entitled to be part of the EU and that you are prepared to fight the EU until they agree.

???

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 22:13

lonely You've expressed it exactly:

The UK has deliberately shit the bed
The EU is disgusted

The ECJ may - or may not - force the EU to let us back into bed - IFF there are the HoC / PV votes to actually ask this
but things would still not be the same as before the ref:

Prestige, influence, soft power all built up over many decades have been trashed over the last 2½ years
and will take decades of good behaviour to rebuild
(anyway, what UK politicians now are actually capable of good behaviour and rebuilding ?)

bofsy1 · 27/11/2018 22:14

Catching up now.

I doubt the ruling in ECJ re A50 will = unilateral is ok.

BUT maybe they will say yes, ok and hold their noses on a pragmatic basis for this UK issue only if it becomes horrendous. Then the Lisbon Treaty will be immediately amended to disregard unilateral revocation of A50 in future, you know, to stop willy nilly withdrawals etc.

BUT, as I understand it, Ireland would need a referendum to ratify this, which I doubt they'd have a problem with, and other countries can offer a referendum too now. So could take a while.

I could be totally wrong about all this though, and usually am!

But anyway. Punch drunk ain't the word right now!

Quietrebel · 27/11/2018 22:17

Prestige, influence, soft power all built up over many decades have been trashed over the last 2½ years
and will take decades of good behaviour to rebuild

Yes, that will be the price, but if it was still possible to remain then at least the framework with which to rebuild would still exist. Otherwise, the losses will keep piling up, even with Norway+.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 22:43

Gosh.

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.
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jasjas1973 · 27/11/2018 22:46

TatianaLarina

What???

No idea where you get that from, i want to stay IN the EU and like it or not, until 29th March, we are full members, so, we can revoke art50, at least ask to have it revoked and/or ask for an extension.
.
The above is what i'll fight for, if at the end of that the EU say F off, then thats that and tbh understandable, we as Gov.uk have behaved terribly.

lonelyplanetmum · 27/11/2018 22:47

I can't take credit for the bed phrase I was incorporating something Leclerc had said upthread.

But if there's ever any opportunity I hope that the EUs disgust would be tempered if we ever manage to replace a particularly bad crop of politicians with an improved selection.

RedToothBrush · 27/11/2018 22:49

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7843364/theresa-may-commons-200-vote-defeat-brexit-deal/
Theresa May could suffer a 200-vote defeat when the Commons decides on her Brexit deal — dealing a fatal blow to her Premiership

Some maths for you whilst you read the article:
418 - 247 = 171

Just saying.

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TatianaLarina · 27/11/2018 22:50

What???

Well quite. I was actually quoting Bigchoc.

Peregrina · 27/11/2018 22:50

Please let's not give up.

It's difficult though.

In 40 or so years time when the history books are written about this, people will be shaking their heads in amazement and asking how a cabal of right wing Tories could cause such fear in successive PMs that they had to pander to them. They will then be asking how a Prime Minister was so stupid to go along with at most what a quarter of the electorate wanted and risk destroying the country and breaking up the UK in the process.

I always wondered with Nazi Germany how so many educated, cultured people could either go along with it, or not object. Now I feel I understand better - those who did object and didn't go along with it, were probably like me, and felt that they had limited power to do anything.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 22:51

red That poll is VERY interesting 🤔

and I'm not surprised so many voters think Remain would be a humiliation - that's how it's seen here too.
'

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 27/11/2018 22:51

But if there's ever any opportunity I hope that the EUs disgust would be tempered if we ever manage to replace a particularly bad crop of politicians with an improved selection.

It is quite incredible isn’t it to consider how relatively few people have delivered us to this sorry situation?

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 22:53

Unfortunately, 48% believed them, or wanted to believe .... and mostly still do
So, we can't just blame a few politicians and dark money

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 22:55

I meant that 52% believed in 2016, down to about 48% now

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 27/11/2018 22:57

I always wondered with Nazi Germany how so many educated, cultured people could either go along with it, or not object. Now I feel I understand better - those who did object and didn't go along with it, were probably like me, and felt that they had limited power to do anything.

That old adage Peregrina , about the only thing necessary for evil to prosper is for good people to do nothing. But what are we supposed to do?

BigChocFrenzy · 27/11/2018 22:58

So, we have MPs going to massively vote down a WA that the voters now seem to support 🤦🏻‍♀️

If that isn't a dodgy poll, we're getting into even deeper trouble re trust in politicians

jasjas1973 · 27/11/2018 22:59

@TatianaLarina Sorry, misread Blush

Talkstotrees · 27/11/2018 23:03

WWYD? Big (more than 50 women) Christmas night out this Friday. We are getting a coach from our town and many are meeting at the local Wthersp*ns for a bite to eat first. WIBU to say I can’t bring myself to go? All my pals (from this particular social avenue) are going. They know my views on Tim Martin. Am I being ridiculous in being the only one to refuse to set foot in there? I feel a bit of a twit but I think I’d choke Blush

Just had a look at the website and it’s worse than expected: www.jdwetherspoon.com/

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