Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

[Motheroffourdragons]

Me too Babooshka.

I hadn't realised that about the C4 documentary.

Well I will need to go round singlehandledy and round them all up then.

I will bring my dragons, that should do it .

[Hazardswan]

New thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3436727-Westminstenders-May-plays-Sale-of-the-Century?msgid=82928932#82928932

[Loletta]

I would prefer a 2nd vote now to any kind of stitch up deal for a crap brexit. If the people of this country then vote to leave with no deal, so be it, but I do not believe that will happen.


The current WA is crap.
Norway ++ barely tolerable.
Another vote too risky and divisive.

I don't think we should repeat the same mistake of trusting the people with decisions of this magnitude. I'm uneasy about the idea of a second referendum - even if there's a remain option - not least because it'd be highly divisive but also I wouldn't trust people to vote "sensibly" at all. I'm not sure any amount of cautioning or warning about job losses, etc will make a big chunk of Leave voters change their mind. Been there, done it. Not again thanks.

[Motheroffourdragons]

So what then, Loletta?

[Loletta]

Don't know. The closest possible arrangement to full membership without blatantly ignoring the result of the referendum? Don't know if that's Norway ++. I'm just saying that I'm not convinced that a second referendum would produce a different result and even if it did, it'd be so divise and damaging for this country.
The damage has been done by calling the referendum in the first place. I'm not sure undoing it should be attempted. Maybe damage limitation at this stage is more advisable.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Mother The ++ in the Norway++ means adding Customs arrangements and agriculture / farming - I think Barnier recommends a full CU - to the basic Norway deal
This would make the border frictionless and is necessary because the current Norway / Sweden border is not.

It also means adding passporting for the City

It would take 3-4 years of negotiating to enhance the very basic Norway template, so we would need a transition period

[Jason118]

And we would need to pay for those privileges, of course

[BigChocFrenzy]

The seat at the table & MEPs comes only with EU membership, but like Norway, we would have input into those rules affecting us.

The EU is likely to integrate further, which the UK won't like, whereas EEA / EFTA may become the outer ring of those who
The EU will be much better able to make the major changes it needs for the future, without the UK constantly blocking everything and being disruptive

Especially since under Brown or Cameron (too late to remember which !) the HoC passed a law requiring a referendum for each new integration or treaty
So in the EU, we would keep having the same sort of divisive referendum every few years

The UK does not deserve a seat, because only a small minority of the public actually like the EU or want it to develop further.
Even most Remainers really just want the Common Market, plus FOM

[BigChocFrenzy]

Back in the 1956 Treaty of Rome and the formation of the Common Market, it was written in that the aim was ever-increasing integration
Most of the UK has never seemed to understand this, which is why they keep whingeing and trying to block nearly every step along the way.

Those countries who don't want more imtegration, or who don't like even the current integration, stay in EEA / EFTA
That's where the UK belongs, until the public actually want to be more integated with the EU

[jasjas1973]

I thought it said “Determined to lay the foundations of an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe …..”

Its just been distorted to mean something else.

Anyone who has seen the vast range of cultures, practices, customs throughout Europe knows that a federal state is not going to happen.

[Loletta]

Those countries who don't want more imtegration, or who don't like even the current integration, stay in EEA / EFTA
That's where the UK belongs, until the public actually want to be more integated with the EU

Completely agree

[Motheroffourdragons]

But BigChoc - that's basically what we have now. So what has been the point?

No leaver is going to buy that in a month of Sundays.

Best to go and ask what we all want I think.

[BigChocFrenzy]

jas Some of us on the mainland want to work towards a federal European state as a future (distant) aspiration
There is no conflict with that and the different cultures & traditions continuing to thrive and be cherished.

Some others don't want it, but there is not the same horror or scare stories about this as in the UK,

When I voted YES in the 1975 referendum, I voted for that European dream, as well as the more immediate prospects.
I actively hoped to see that in my lifetime
OK, I now see that as a more longterm project - I also won't see the Moon colonies I'd hoped for -
but if I survive another 20 years, then I'd like to see continuing progress along the way to a federal United Europe

The USA has tremendous differences between its different states and even parts of states
The common factor is they all unite around one flag (even though the states have their own flags)

[BigChocFrenzy]

mother Many Leavers thought that was what they'd get:
Hannan, Farage & co kept saying "don't you want to be prosperous like Norway in the Single Market"

Right after the ref, Cameron could have got 70% consensus for what to do after such a narrow Leave win,
but he flounced and then the ERG & Atoantic Bridge gang saw their chance to take over
So they trashed everything except WTO.

[BigChocFrenzy]

There are key difference, such as
the EFTA court instead of the ECJ, for most things
and being able to do our own trade deals, provided these do not undercut EU deals with those countries.

[1tisILeClerc]

I'm with BCF with her views. I am not sure how much further integration there will be in the EU as I think there are a lot of other pressures and issues to resolve (ignoring Brexit). Switzerland is having a bit of a rethink and is being pushed on aspects of trade. France is in a bumpy patch as are several other countries, although I would hope it is mostly a bit of 'jostling' rather than significant problems. One of the Eastern European countries is unhappy that the young are emigrating so leaving an ageing population behind.

[BigChocFrenzy]

I think there will be an inner ring in the Eurozone that will integrate more
plus an outer ring that may combine with EFTA to become "Associate Members" where integration is frozen

Possible future changes for the EU:

The EU needs to increase its Social Chapter, to give more protection to the more vulnerable workers:
e.g. safeguards on Zero hours contracts,
Works Councils for firms with 50+ employees, with trade union representation, as in Germany.
Also reduce probationary periods to 6 months during which workers may be fired without cause

The Working Time Directive should not have optouts for commercial reasons, but there would be a limited number of exceptions in public services that would be reviewed by the ECJ, such as junior doctors / training

Possibly EU-wide rights for tenants, particularly if the UK Remains, to give more longterm security to tenants, as in countries like Germany

Possibly EU requirements for subsidised childcare, like in Germany - my colleague pays €110 / month for ft care - or Scandinavia

With the US likely to become ever more predatory in trade and less reliable in defence, even post-Trump,
the EU needs to integrate its militaries.
The alternative is to pay the US price and provide cannon fodder for more US wars for oil and willy-wagging

There will need to be a radical overhaul of the refugee / foreign aid system, before populism gets out of control, but also because there are an estimated 65 million more refugees from wara, plus 200 million soon from climate change.

Obviously the EU can't take more than a tiny fraction of 1% of these, so we need to work with other organisatiins to rethink intenational law on refugees and to help create safe havens elsewhere

[BigChocFrenzy]

The Survation comment on their site is about the change in attitudes since 15 November:

"New polling, conducted Tuesday November 28th on behalf of the Daily Mail, on attitudes to the Government’s Brexit deal shows significant change in public attitudes.

Despite its unpopularity relative to a range of alternative scenarios, awareness of, and public support for the UK Government’s Brexit withdrawal agreement has increased significantly."

Studying the Survation poll in more detail,
the split is striking between Tory voters - who overwhelmingly want MPs to vote for the WA -
and Labour, who don't.

Leave voters clearly want the MPs to approve, whereas Remain voters clearly don't.

Interesting too that some people from both sides who don't like the deal, still want MPs to vote for it - the fatigue factor ?

imo, still shows the country is as divided as ever:

[Motheroffourdragons]

imo, still shows the country is as divided as ever:

I completely agree with that

But I do think that more people have come to expect leave means to leave CU/SM and remaining in either/both is problematic for them.

Which is why I think we need some clarity. Parliament doesn't seem to be able to make up its mind.

[1tisILeClerc]

From the Independent
{Jeremy Hunt is under fire for claiming Britain’s close “connections” with other EU countries will be crucial to the UK’s future success, despite his strong support for Brexit.}.
This is on his trip to Singapore where the penalty for drugs is death. I suppose he can try and claim diplomatic immunity.

[1tisILeClerc]

{But I do think that more people have come to expect leave means to leave CU/SM and remaining in either/both is problematic for them.}
Which is peculiar as unless you are personally involved with trading things between the UK and the EU you will hardly be aware of their existence. So that would be mostly company managers, shipping departments and technical regulations, most of which will need 'rules' of some sort anyway.