Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Well, I agree with you BCF, that would be a terrible crisis.
Perhaps voters do feel the bird in hand (the deal) is worth holding on to just to avoid a meltdown.
If politicians vote it down and there is no viable way to revoke/ remain, it could get really ugly.

Sad to see Westminster fighting like this. They do not appear to have the good of everyone on board, and they don't really seem to care. I really doubt if they know themselves what they are fighting for anymore.

If they did, they would explain the benefits of voting down the WA. I haven't seen anything like that, has anyone else?

Somber day last Sunday though by all accounts. The EU does not want UK to leave, but seems they will not be taken in by intransigence and lack of ability to negotiate fairly either anymore now.

I am very sad that it has come to this.

BCF - DM didn't give headlines to the Channel 4 poll of 20k people that said something entirely different, earlier polls on her deal gave it the thumbs down.
the 52/19 is on whether her deal is better than any other deal...eh?... there is no other "deal"
One horse in the race, 100% of punters say its the best horse because it won! wow! what a shocker!

Otherwise its neck and neck on if MPs should vote for it.

Aside, we live in a representative democracy, otherwise we'd have back the noose, stocks, cat o nine tails, castration etc etc it does not lead to a lack of trust in MPs, thats down to their behavior... think expenses and patronage!

jas, missmoon I get the impression that you feel the UK is entitled to be part of the EU and that you are prepared to fight the EU until they agree.

We’re currently still in the EU. One of the core principles of the EU is no member can be expelled against their will. That is the situation at the moment. I think this WA is a big mistake (on sovereignity and economic grounds), and I’m not going to stop saying it!

The Nazi comparison is extreme,
it would be extreme to compare those Leavers wanting to Brexit, to Nazis

However, we must be watchful and remember
not to let judges and civil servants be called saboteurs, traitors, Enemies of the People
not to scapegoat groups for economic / housing / healthcare problems
not to tolerate racism, xenophobia or misogyny
not to ignore the suffering of people in the Uk who are starving, homeless
not to let the welfare state be torn down

These are all problems we had before Brexit and will have after Brexit
It's because the hard right have taken over the Tory party and much of the media

The biggest problems in the world, imo:

The US far right & Trump

Trump is a fascist, who I suspect would behave like a Nazi without the remaining constraints of the US system
He is a narcissistic psychopath who leads the world's overwhelming military superpower
He scares me far more than anything in the UK

We need to drive out the US far right from Europe
and avoid any US FTA

MissMoon The UK has chosen to Leave - the EU is not expelling it

The UK may - or may not - ask to revoke
If the ECJ say this right is not unilateral, then the EU is not expelling the UK if it refuses permission

Macron did have a bit of a bash a couple of months back getting business leaders over for a chat. Airbus plants being brought over from the UK would be interesting although I have a feeling some is now heading for China.
The chance for the french to 'get one over' the Brits would play quite well too.

I agree that there are some potential gains for France. But politically I don't think there is much to gain from a crash-out Brexit, as it would hurt the "left behinds", whereas the gains would be in already-wealthy urban areas (financial services to Paris, aerospace to Toulouse).

As a broader comment I think the grown ups in the EU know that Brexit is lose-lose and they'd still rather it didn't happen, even though I dare say it is tempting to try to make political capital out of it.

The Daily Mail reporting of the Survation poll is very misleading, see here: twitter.com/colin_lawson/status/1067553963971657728

Original results on the Survation website, showing the WA is in fact very unpopular: www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/

It’s just DM propaganda, an attempt to mislead. I feel like it’s 2016 all over again, and we’re ignoring facts and reason. Anyone trying to point out facts gets shouted down.

Leavers expected - and many still believe in - a unicorn deal

If FOM remains a red line for them, then the NI border constraints mean this WA is as good a deal as the EU will give

If MPs give in and decide to drop all the main UK red lines on FOM, ECJ & payments,
then the EU would probably agree to try for Norway++ even in Feb / March.

Any real deal will be unpopular, because Leave voters were promised unicorns
which don't exist

If FOM is a red line, then there is only this WA

Talks YANBU. Don't set foot in the place. My older DDs student mates go to a ' spoons and I have asked her to meet them later. I supply the money that would be spent in there.Fortunately she agrees.

Have to say, currently all UK citizens are also EU citizens. We are 60 millions EU citizens being fucked by an incompetent government pursuing a suicidal policy that the majority didn't vote for and don't support. The EU know this.

I believe the EU has done the best it can in good will with the withdrawal agreement but if they refused a revoke because they were pissed off with a UK Government that the vast majority of the country didn't even vote for then that really would be selling EU citizens (which we still are) down the river.

The government have bevaved like nasty, spoilt children, but millions of citizens are not the government and the real people are what should be at the forefront of people's consideration (if only they ever were!!!!!)

Oops, sorry, I just realised that may be an earlier poll - ignore my last comment!

The 2 Brexit options - WA or No Deal - combined are 44%, compared to 43% for Remain

I think this is a new poll, but I can't find its figures
We need to see if the combined Leave vote has slipped behind Remain, or increased its lead

Unfortunately, 48% believed them, or wanted to believe .... and mostly still do
So, we can't just blame a few politicians and dark money

I don’t just blame them bigchoc. I’m not being an apologist for the 52%. I’m furious at them (including DSIL and her DH) for voting for this. But, they were only in the position to be able to inflict this damage because of the ineptitude and foolishness of Cameron in trying to placate a noisy minority in his own party (who so far haven’t even managed to oust May). I blame him and Osborne. I blame UKIP and the arch Brexiteers of the Cons. I blame the media owners who, out of self-interest waged a war against the EU and influenced the guillible and (I’ll say it) the stupid. I believe it is down to a relatively few people that we have been brought to this point. I do appreciate though that the fact that 52% voted Leave and most of them still believe we should do so would be of grave concern to the EU should we want to try to revoke.

You can't call supporting WA a leave supporting vote, we've seen many on this thread saying they support remain ideally but would vote for WA for fear of no deal. TM has done her job on this remainders and she's scared them into supporting the deal even though they want to remain.

From the DM.

Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.

TM has done her job on this remainders and she's scared them into supporting the deal even though they want to remain.

Exactly.

theGirl The problem is that 52% voted Leave and that hasn't changed much
I agree that if the polls were showing 60% Remain, then I'd expect the EU to allow it.

The other problem is that the EU can't force its member governments on major decisions like this
and each has a veto - unless the ECJ decides otherwise

Imagine how you'd feel if it had been far-right Hungary that had invoked A50 and wanted to change its mind.
Wouldn't you want the UK to be able to veto that, if they felt Hungary was too dangerous in the EU ?

The Uk keeps complaining that national governments don't have power in the EU - clearly they do !

in a 3-way STV vote, very obviously we*d put Remain #1 and the WA #2

Do you think Remain voters are too stupid to manage that ???

Also, Remainers here have said support the WA only later, if / when No Deal looks inevitable
We've all said vote down the 1st attempt, then see how it looks if there is a 2nd attempt

If nothing has happened by late February, then it's time for MPs to vote for the WA

Note that 47% think that staying in would be humiliating

Pride is also going to be a factor
A lot of people would hate backing down so completely

The Survation data tables

www.survation.com/are-the-public-warmer-on-the-prime-ministers-brexit-deal-than-mps/

That doesn't give me the tables, however MissMoon's link does seem to be for that DM poll

In a 3-Way poll, Remain 43%, but the 2 Brexit options total 44%

You need to click on the Data tables for the deal related questions can be found here: to get the Google sheet. Direct link to that didn't open when I previewed it.