Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Me too, Tanith
I've ruled out the LDems over their TRA agenda

• added insult when they accepted Challenor

and of course the even more disgraceful Green Party too

Worst betrayal was when the WEP (Women's Equality Party) also sold us out - I'd probably have voted for them.
Sod that.

[RedToothBrush]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3436727-Westminstenders-May-plays-Sale-of-the-Century?watched=1

New thread early as I am without Internet for the afternoon.

[Talkstotrees]

I can’t imagine there is a political party with which I agree entirely on everything. Labour has always been best fit for me but I voted LD in 2017 - because of their Brexit stance.

My beliefs are fairly centre left and I do feel a bit abandoned. The stranglehold of the 2 big parties, lack of money available to smaller parties, horrible FPTP all mean that millions of us will be without a real voice.

Thanks for your support re ‘sp**ns - I have said that I am unable to meet there as I consider Tim Martin to be a vile hypocrite who spreads lies and hatred. Plus the food is shit.

[1tisILeClerc]

{The application of violence to defeat the enemies of the nation has become worryingly unpopular. Nothing wrong with fighting (yes killing) for values/what you believe in. The oppressed/bullied/tormented/voiceless deserve it. Join the fight; best thing you’ll ever do}
Taking that at face value he does have a point.
Although it hasn't got to this but voting to say that Putin and mates can't overrun Ukraine or some of the Eastern EU countries isn't going to work so forcible resistance is necessary.
The American tactic of sending drones piloted from a cosy bunker in Virginia or selling arms so that others can do the 'work' is another.
It all goes back to the 'hearts and minds' statement, getting to a point where people want to live peacefully.

[jasjas1973]

So, we have MPs going to massively vote down a WA that the voters now seem to support
If that isn't a dodgy poll, we're getting into even deeper trouble re trust in politicians

Well, the poll, as reported - was very dodgy!

also....
www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/

So by your own logic(to keep trust in politicians) Gov/MPs should be revoking brexit and/or a PV :)

[BigChocFrenzy]

jas The Fail front page was dodgy, rather than the poll

However, the 2 Brexit options combined are still just higher than Remain
So we can't say there is consent for Revoke, or even a majority atm

I posted upthread the SKyData poll 10 day earlier, which had much higher Remain support
but with different poll orgs and methodology, we certainly can't say Remain has fallen since then
Hence my wish to see the next SkyData poll

The country has remained split since June 2016 and opinion is swinging all over the place
We need a clear change in public opinion

[Motheroffourdragons]

BigChoc - it is an enormous leap to think that people who would vote for May's deal would choose no deal as an alternative.

There's no suggestion that is the case at all.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Even a straight question about having a PV gives only a narrow margin in favour

and so far even Labour only have that as a last option if everything else has failed

• we don't know if everything else will fail
  or if it does, whether any Tories will join them to vote for PV
  
  The WA has pushed many MPs across different parties to talk about Norway++,
  much much better and it was always Barnier's recommendation, too.
  
  I want MPs to decide how /if we Brexit, because I am very nervous about a PV:
  
  All the highly targeted data from CA and from Banks' insurance firm has not been deleted - just passed to their backers
  So I expect the same psy ops again, except that it would be on social media and they hâve learned now to separate themselves legally from any official campaign
  
  For the final attempt at Leave, there would be umpteen millions of Dark Money on social media and the media oligarchs would ramp up the hate again

[BigChocFrenzy]

Mother It is an equally large leap to assume they would vote for Remain

We can only say that in the latest 3-way poll, Remain was well below 50%
How would the 2nd reference votes split, especially after a campaign ? Noone knows

That's why it's better if MPs can decide

May should cancel her WA vote, at least until we have the ECJ decision, so MPs have the full information
By then, Norway++ might actually have killed it off

[Motheroffourdragons]

It's the large proportion of don't knows skewing that.

But how does Norway ++ solve the Irish border - unless one of the +s involves putting the border down the Irish Sea?

[DGRossetti]

Sounds like we've arrived back at the point that "Remain" is not an equal option with any flavour of leave.

"Remain" is just the default setting. If 2 % back remain, and 98 % back 98 different ways to "Leave" then Remain is what we should do.

[BigChocFrenzy]

mother Norway++, as Barnier proposed it, would require no border anywhere
not EU /UK, not GB / NI

It adds on a Customs arrangement to the EEA / EFTA Norway-type arrangement, which is anyway not adequate for a complex, much bigger economy than Norway

Remainers get all the goodies we like: FOM, all the agencies, access to ERASMUS etc

Brexiters hate it, because it keeps FOM and it prevents the UK from slashing workers' rights and environmental protection etc
This prevents negotiating treaties with lower standards, such as the FTA with the USA

Soft Leavers mostly thought they'd get a Norway-type Brexit anyway

That's why we keep hammering Cameron and May for not aiming from the start for Norway++, which could then have gained about 70% acceptance

[BigChocFrenzy]

DG We can only do that if enough of the 98% prefer Remain to any other of the 98 ways

We need a majority to at least acquiesce to what happens next
and if it's just a very narrow majority, then whichever decision it is will keep the bitterness and divisions going for many years,
always with the risk of voters turning to the extremes

Let's remember - forever:
Any poll on the worst ever PM, vote for Cameron

[1tisILeClerc]

With the absence of Remain as it WAS (we have already lost so much) I would be happy with this idea of a Norway++ or whatever.
FoM as implemented across the rest of Europe, which might need a bit of mild tweaking if immigration is still an issue in other countries.
Still gives the massive problem that it is not 'Leavey' enough and no unicorns for those that voted out.

[1tisILeClerc]

If it was just the 'leavers' that lose out on not actually leaving then it would blow over, but the likes of the ERG and whatever other money pits in the shadows want, they will keep stirring up trouble so it will become a running sore. That is what need cauterising.

[TheElementsSong]

Still gives the massive problem that it is not 'Leavey' enough and no unicorns for those that voted out.

Since Brexit unicorns don't exist and therefore cannot be delivered, they were never going to be happy anyway.

[Motheroffourdragons]

In my opinion, if we have a second ref then we accept that result. We have all moved on enough in the past 2 years to surely have armed ourselves with the information to make a better vote.

The dyed in the wool leavers are never going to change their minds, but there is a strong chance that all the non voters last time will make damn sure they vote next time around, and with younger people now eligible to vote that could well make a difference to the result.

I don't think the Norway model works for an economy of our size, there is certainly not frictionless trade at the Norway/Sweden border. Leavers will hate it anyway because we will have as you say FOM for it to work.

I would prefer a 2nd vote now to any kind of stitch up deal for a crap brexit. If the people of this country then vote to leave with no deal, so be it, but I do not believe that will happen.

[1tisILeClerc]

But David PROMISED unicorns. The fact they could never be delivered is beyond the reasoning of far too many.
Man can fly to the moon and overcome the millenium bug (don't start!) so why can't they have unicorns?
Speaking of bugs, what are the ERG and gang up to these days?
JRM was spouting bollocks again the other day but what else is going on?

[merrymouse]

Remainers get all the goodies we like: FOM, all the agencies, access to ERASMUS etc

Except for perhaps the most important goody - having a seat at the table.

[DGRossetti]

Man can fly to the moon and overcome the millenium bug (don't start!) so why can't they have unicorns?

OR

• the moon landings are a hoax
  
• the millennium bug never existed
  

Remember, we are dealing with a rump of people who have chosen to be stupid here. Once people make that decision, there can be no turning back.

[DGRossetti]

Remainers get all the goodies we like: FOM, all the agencies, access to ERASMUS etc

Except for perhaps the most important goody - having a seat at the table.

To be brutally honest, I'd rather live in a UK that had to take EU rules without being able to fuck them up, than in a UK which had a seat at the table to try and mess others up. I know it's not really the done thing, but I have less faith in my own government than I do those of Germany, France, Italy, Spain. I really do.

[merrymouse]

I can’t vote LibDem while they are promoting the aggressive Trans Rights narrative.

Agree, and Labour aren't really doing any better on this issue.

[SingingBabooshkaBadly]

To be brutally honest, I'd rather live in a UK that had to take EU rules without being able to fuck them up, than in a UK which had a seat at the table to try and mess others up.

I was just about to say the same thing DG. I have zero confidence in our lot and would welcome the chance of having benefits such as FOM and some proper grown-ups in charge.

[SingingBabooshkaBadly]

We have all moved on enough in the past 2 years to surely have armed ourselves with the information to make a better vote

You would think wouldn’t you. There still appear to be plenty of people around who are buying all the lies and/or stubbornly refusing to take any proper facts on board.

younger people now eligible to vote that could well make a difference to the result

Didn’t the C4 survey show same proportion of 18 - 24 YOs (only 36%) would vote in a second ref?

Obviousy I fervently hope you are right in both counts Mother

[merrymouse]

To be brutally honest, I'd rather live in a UK that had to take EU rules without being able to fuck them up, than in a UK which had a seat at the table to try and mess others up.

You might like Macron and Merkel, but Germany, France, Italy and Spain all have their own problems. A significant portion of the electorate focusing their dissatisfaction on the EU might not be one of them, but there are very unsavoury political movements in all these countries.

School meals might often be rubbish in the UK, but at least when they are provided there is a vegetarian alternative and no local councils forces everyone to eat pork or go without.