Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

I disagree, brain
No Deal is still the automatic default on 29 March
There is no way to force a PM to Revoke - and there certainly are far fewer votes in the HoC for that atm than for the WA

It is more difficult to get enough votes for the PV atm than for the WA:

• In favour would be all the 35 SNP MPs, but only 11 LDems

• 1 LDem said he would stick to his election promise and vote against

• All the ERG would vote against, as would the Tory party loyalists, who are the great majority

Only hardcore Remainers would actually want a PV - and to date Tory Remainers have backed down every time when it comes to key votes against the govt.
How many would vote against a 3-line whip - 20 ?

• All 10 DUP would vote against

• Probably 10 hardcore Labour Brexiters would vote against, whatever happens

Several more on a free vote, including Corbyn.
If Corbyn whips against, maybe up to 100 Remainers would still support a PV ?

*Talkstotrees
*
Maybe ask about the economic impact assessments released in August which showed the UK would be poorer under any Brexit scenario. Will the current outline proposals be measured against Britain remaining inside the EU and if so are they likely to show we will be more prosperous under the govts preferred deal ?

Although, interestingly, Hammond was asked something similar recently and said exactly what my friend's Leave voting Mum
Says which is "It isn’t only about money. "

I'm keen to find out how much money Brexit is actually worth to different individuals. How long before they start whingeing.

Tom McTague@TomMcTague

A Tory minister: “Well, it’s lose lose isn’t it. But that’s Brexit.
The only way this might work is if everyone loses. That’s it isn’t it.
We all have to lose for this to happen. That’s the reality. It’s lose lose.”

James Felton@JimMFelton

Julia Hartley-Brewer: "I'm more than happy with no deal"
Of course you are, you're rich and thick.

Patrick Maguiree@patrickkmaguire*

Corbyn spokesman says they do not anticipate that a Labour government’s Withdrawal Agreement would need a backstop
...
The Irish Borderr@BorderIrish*

I've nothing funny, or wry, or sarcastic, or amusingly weary to say about this.
It's just irresponsible, unless you're imagining cancelling Brexit or suddenly announcing Irish unification without consulting the Irish government.
Absolute bollocks for the many and the few.
...

Tbh, at this point if there’s a People’s Vote and the UK remains in EU I’d still want a backstop to stop them pricking around again

Corbyn is just having a laugh. He doesn't have the tiniest shred of an idea of how to negotiate a better Brexit deal. He's treating the British public as total fools. How Labour MPs can stand being in the party with him in charge is beyond me. They should have set up an alternative party long ago.

Potential for Spain to veto deal over Gibraltar, first of many or fly in the ointment ?

Went to a Q&A with Crispin Blunt MP last night. Went hoping to hear some intelligent, well-informed arguments for Brexit. Got unicorns, paternalism and lots and lots of 'the nasty EU are punishing us'

The ostensible subject of the Q&A was 'will Brexit be a disaster for young people?' (it was held by the politics dept of a local college) and, despite being asked several very clear and polite questions by A-level students in the room, he refused to answer anything, complained that the subject (which he'd obviously agreed to in advance!) was too controversial, and told the room that people only supported Remain because they were young, socialist and didn't understand history.

He is excited about the 'global opportunities' for a No Deal and trading under WTO rules, but couldn't explain why or what these opportunities actually would be. It is, of course, the EU's fault that we're in the position we're in because they are punishing us pour encourager les autres. We will be fine outside the EU and fine under WTO rules because we are a) small and therefore agile (y'know, like a little boat in the Armada, I guess) and also - guess what? - because we used to rule the world and tell everyone what to do so we have lots of global connections and more soft power than anyone in the world. So, that's nice.

There's no way that Project Fear (he used that phrase several times) will ever come to pass because, well, Osbourne was wrong about the immediate recession and emergency budget so... it'll be fine.

He couldn't tell anyone how they'd be better off or be able to buy a house once out of the EU, though. I guess these things don't bother a Tory MP in a safe Surrey seat...

The only bright spot was that he got a challenging, at times almost hostile, reception in the room. No one was buying it.

Am now even more profoundly depressed than ever.

Oh, and of course NI is just a distraction because no-one is actually going to put a hard border up so, no problem.

Labour could do it without a backstop? Load of bollocks. Prove it, Corbyn, you manipulative cocklodger. Show us your plan. If it's that good, you should tell everyone. Fucking snake oil salesman.

Because they would keep us in the CU?

This WA - if there is no deal at the end of transition - would have us in a CU, required to aditionally follow most of the CU rules except for food products - and in a backtop

I expect even if we apply to Rejoin in transition, or to negotiate Norway++, the RoI and the EU would now demand a backtop

If the ECJ rules that revoke before Brexit is not unilteral, then the EU might only consent with a backstop

One major effect of Brexit is that the RoI and EU have realised the UK is untrustworthy,
especially wrt Ireland

It's another reason why Spain is so agitated over Gibraltar:
they don't believe previous or current private assurances from the UK govt

Noone trusts us now
- thank you DD, Raab, Mogg & the ERG, the Leave campaign and all the nasties who have come out of the woodwork

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*
·
What’s the real significance of the ‘all things to all men’ vagueness of the Political Declaration?
There will be years (3-5 minimum?) of more rows about what EU trade deal we want.
Hence, the internecine Tory civil war over it has only just begun.

Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has claimed that Theresa May’s deal on Brexit would be worse than staying in the EU.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/23/eu-meets-to-finalise-theresa-may-brexit-agreement-text-amid-spanish-threats-politics-live

On BBC R4 this morning. The lights are on ...

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge
·
Have to say this is very much NOT how the deal is seen here in Brussels.
There is pretty much no gloating or feeling of victory.
Just spoke to one senior diplomat whose verdict, to coin a famous phrase, was that the Member States didn't like it, but they had to go along with it

SKY reporting this morning that in the event of a no deal, the Bank of England might have to borrow money from EU or USA to prevent a collapse of the Pound (they need us.......).

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
·
Brexit is going to happen by automatic operation of law on 29 March 2019, deal or no deal,^ unless something exceptional happens.^

Now would be the best time, perhaps the only time, for that exceptional thing to happen.

{Theresa May’s deal on Brexit would be worse than staying in the EU.}
Most of us already appreciate anything other than Remaining is worse.
I would EXPECT the WA to be pretty harsh on the UK. Without having gone into details I see it as a workable solution for the immediate EU red lines (4 pillars) but allow the UK not to actually collapse in the short term but very firm (some in the UK would call it nasty) clauses to make the UK gov wake up and actually decide what the hell it really does want.
If you don't eat your greens there will be no ice cream.

Bell Labours policy is long term SM and a CU, they don't seem to have a problem with FOM, so would they need a backstop?

Of course what they ve not answered is that we'll be taking all the rules, payin in but no say.

May is a proven liar, her assurances on No PV aren't worth the air she breathed to say it.
She has said Brexit might not happen, that they 'll be no PV and an assurance we are def leaving on March 29th- contradiction city!!!

IF she cannot get her WA through, she has limited choices, so no-deal will wreck the economy as her government have agreed on, which the electorate will punish her for.
That leaves a GE, revoke or a PV, of the 3, a PV keeps them in power, if not May.

The WA is doing what brexit was about and how it was won.
It stops the FOM.

All the rest, the economic side, staying in the CM etc... doesn’t matter as much as that.

That’s why TM feels it’s ok to talk about EU citizens jumping the queue.
That’s what the conservatives wanted (remember Cameron going to get some special Deal with the EU about That?)
That’s what UKIP and Farage went in and in about (remember the photos with the lines of immigrants trying ‘to get in’ the country?)
And most importantly it separates the EU citizens as THEM and not US, making them to mere immigrants that should just be grateful whatever the uk wants to give them. Rather than equals having the same rights. Basically a backlash from the ‘we need to accept everyone with all their different culture and be careful not to offend them in any way’

etvoilabrexit

Yes absolutely but it should also be noted that ending FOM a specifically English obsession.

What would happen if a people’s vote still bad a leave win, what then ?