Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

The EU can stick whatever they like in the political statement thingy as it's not binding. They just want the WA signed. Once that goes through they'll have the UK over a barrel when it comes to the future agreement because no agreement means the backstop kicks in. They've got nothing to lose once the WA is sealed.

pretty Yes, any kind of deal can be negotiated during transition, provided both the Uk and EU agree

Similarly, if there is No Deal and transition ends with the UK following the backstop and the CU
the UK could still negotiate Norway++ IFF the EU agrees - and they almost certainly would

The EU - or rather the RoI - would probably insist the backstop remains, in case the Uk leaves EFTA again

The main problem though might well be that Norway doesn't want us !
People keep overlooking this.

Thanks BCF.
I tend to go away for up to a week or so but it would feel better to feel to do it 'right'.

No it's not the SM but it has a lot in common and is certainly not "just" a CU. It shadows the SM and the rules the UK has to follow would be updated dynamically as SM rules change

These are two very different things. The backstop binds UK companies to EU regulations, but it doesn't give them frictionless access to the SM (which isn't possible without the four freedoms).

It would be similar to the deal with Turkey, which is in a form of CU with the EU, but outside the SM. Goods arriving from the UK would still be treated as third-country goods, and would have be inspected at the border (as they are on the UK-Turkey border). There would be restrictions on truck licenses, and all the rest of it.

I think it's very misleading to liken the backstop to the Norway+ option.

I should also add that the backstop doesn't include services.

Mother I was just referring to Leclerc's need, as an EU resident, to travel to another country in case his DC needs him.

There will be no FOM, but anyone resident at the end of transition - which may be 2022 or even later, will have the right to permanent residence.

With a No Deal, there would be no such guarantee, even for those already resident - they would be treated like those of any other 3rd country, by both the UK and the EU countries.

MissMoon We don't know if it will be like Turkey;
If so, then May - and more importantly, business - have been conned by promises of "frictionless trade

We do know that big business and small / medium exporters said they can live with this deal

• which would astonish me if it is no better than Turkey, because 12-36 hrs wait would hammer JIT production lines

Similarly with services:
It is very difficult to separate most services and goods now, with products sold that need maintenance, support, insurance etc from the UK

• many goods would not be worth selling without, or even possible.

It could be that all these businesses are all complacent idiots - it happens !
or it could be that the doom-sayers are wrong.

The reason for all the checks at the Turkish border is that they are not in the SM
and do not follow the SM rules

The CU in the WA, as I have posted, comes with those 60 pages of SM rules that the UK has to follow
That's why I call it a shadow SM, or Norway-- it's a hodge-podge

and btw, Norway has 1-2 hour queues at their border with Sweden because farming / agricultural products are excluded from the bog standard EFTA arrangement, whereas they are all included alongside this CU

Businesses are happy because during the transition period, it all stays more or less the same as now (we remain in the SM and CU). They are hoping that the govt will change course and the final relationship will be something very similar to what we have now. Even if it isn't, the transition period gives them time to relocate etc.

If there is no agreement at the end of the transition period, we revert to the backstop, which for the UK mainland (excluding NI) is a CU only, with additional regulatory alignment, but crucially no access to the SM. This is similar to the Turkey situation in that Turkey (and lots of other third countries) are required to follow some EU regulations, in exchange for varying degrees of access.

It most definitely does not equate to remaining in the SM, or anything like it. In the best-case scenario, the transition will either be extended indefinitely, or we will negotiate a deal similar to Norway + CU, so the backstop will never apply.

I think the JIT for manufacturing where the work rate is defined should be fairly easily accommodated as it is the unknown and probably delayed arrival time that would be the issue. I presume there is some provision for bad weather and accidents causing some delay so holding a bit more stock should suffice. It is the prospect of having to untangle the shipments from the thousands per day that is unthinkable.

LeClerc Warehousing is expensive
There's very good reason all those firms moved to JIT

mother I think people are allowed to be away for 5 years before losing their permanent residence
That's at an EU / UK level
Individual EU countries may choose not to have time limits - most just aren't bothered about UK immigration.

No, it's not full FOM because May's priority was abolishing that
Change the PM - not to Corbyn - and FOM could be brought back
The problem is entirely on the UK side

MissMoon Are you working in industry ?
I am, in Germany and what I hear too in the business media here is not what you are saying

The interpretation of the backstop here is that to avoid a border in the Irish Sea, the UK would follow the 60+ pages of SM rules and just add a few more checks for NI
These few checks relate only to farming / agriculture only and are not expected to seriously inconvenience JIT manufacturing.

However, as pretty says, during transition the deal may change to Canada++ or Norway++ anyway

I suspect the WA and the PD are deliberately intended to mean different things to different interest groups !

What will happen during transition though, is that unless there is a clear declaration early on to move to Norway++
then some businesses will not risk a Canada-type deal
and the trickle of jobs leaving the UK will increase

I understand those wanting a short sharp shock of No Deal to force public opinion towards Norway++ or even Remain
rather than smoothing out the effects into a long decline

However, No Deal would be a sharp LONG shock

and I have no confidence that this government or any other likely one is competent enough,
that the country even has the necessary welfare infrastructure
to avoid disaster for the poor and those relying on meds

www.heraldscotland.com/news/17241691.nicola-sturgeon-says-david-mundell-should-resign-by-end-of-today/

Nicola Sturgeon says David Mundell should resign by end of today

Nicola Sturgeon has insisted Scottish Secretary David Mundell must resign by the end of the day if he is to retain “any last remaining scrap of principle or credibility”.

The First Minister made the comment after negotiators in Brussels agreed a text for the proposed political declaration on the future relationship between the European Union and the UK.

She said the agreement’s insistence that the two parties “should cooperate on inter alia access to waters and quota shares" represented a betrayal of previous Tory pledges on fishing.

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Last week, all 13 Scottish Tory MPs – including Mr Mundell – signed a letter to Theresa May stating: “We must be able to negotiate access and quota shares with the EU

and other third countries independently on an annual basis, without any pre-existing arrangements being in force.

“This means that access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership, allowing the UK to become an independent coastal state both in principal and in practice.”

Speaking during First Minister’s Question, Ms Sturgeon said this was directly contradicted by the statement in the agreement.

She said: “The political declaration that has been agreed between the UK Government and the European Commission this morning represents another Tory sell-out for Scottish fishermen.

“What we see is that the Scottish fishing industry will be used as a bargaining chip in wider trade talks.”

Ms Sturgeon said the political declaration made no mention of annual negotiations, “which I happen to know the UK Government was trying to secure and they failed”.

She added: “So in terms of David Mundell’s position, I would simply say this: his position is a matter for him.

“But if David Mundell is still in office by the end of today in light of this political declaration, he will have forfeited forever any last remaining scrap of principle or credibility that he had.”

Her spokesman later accused the Scottish Tories of a “mammoth, epic sell-out”.

It comes after European Council president Donald Tusk announced the text had been agreed in draft form by EU and UK negotiators and "agreed in principle at political level".

The move clears the way for a special Brexit summit to go ahead in Brussels on Sunday, when leaders of the 27 remaining EU states are expected to give their stamp of approval

to the declaration alongside the 585-page withdrawal agreement setting out the terms of the UK's departure.

Mr Mundell said he would take no lessons on standing up for fishermen from Ms Sturgeon, insisting she is committed to trapping them in the hated Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).

He said the declaration gives the UK power to “assert its position as an independent costal state with practical sovereignty over our waters”.

Responding on Twitter, he added: “We will negotiate and decide, as an independent coastal state, on access and quota on an annual basis just like Norway and Iceland do now.

“The surest way to guarantee the EU access to Scottish waters would be to rejoin the CFP - exactly what @NicolaSturgeon is demanding.”

UKIP Leader Gerard Batten and Tommy Robinson will be at a Brexit rally in London on 8 December

• they want a "real" Brexit, not the WA

I suspect Robinson may boost the usual pathetic few at UKIP marches
I wonder if Batten realises - or even intended - that by letting Robinson join UKIP, he will have shortly done himself out of a job

I would hope UKIP would drag him down to obscurity with them,
but I fear he might be able to boost them in the next GE, especially in the disastrous aftermath of No Deal

DG Scottish fishermen have been sold out in this deal
but they were always going to be sold out in any deal, including Norway+

They are too few and fishing is too attractive and profitable to other EU and EFTA countries, so they play hardball.

DG Scottish fishermen have been sold out in this deal

It's more the ever-resigning Mundell, I was posting about ...

BCF Yes I know warehousing is expensive but working an extra hour of anticipated and planned travel time for deliveries might be sufficient.
Of course offloading wagons would destroy JIT.
With the planned and announced stoppages from 29 March, if the WA does make it through then it would give time for some head scratching and rescheduling. There is usually a way, it is business we are talking about, not politics!

Kier Starmer of C4 news saying Labour will vote against the deal but that he doesn’t believe the government will go for No Deal (not his exact words but the gist). i’m getting really hacked off with MPs not acknowledging this would be automatic if we don’t agree a deal.

Alson on C4 news, the former Head of the WTO says U.K. would go from division one to division four under WTO rules. Surely that’s simple enough for the unicorn followers to understand?

Keir Starmer needs to start being honest or he will be tainted by the stain of still working with Corbyn. It's Corbyn's fantasy that there will be a general election which will be sufficient for the EU to allow a stalling of the A50 process and that Labour will win thus commencing a new Glorious Revolution. Fantasy bollocks.