Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

leClerc We can cope easily enough with the 1-2 hours delay as at the Norway border
I'd be really worried about the maximum accumulated time though

JIT won't cope with a range of 12-36 hours as at the Turkey border,
but the opinion here atm is that we would be looking at Norway-type delay with this CU having the key SM rules bolted on

Also, the opinion is the UK would be mad not to negotiate Norway in the transition - but we were mad not to do that in the last 2 years, so have the govt learned anything ?

Mother Even with Norway++, the UK could at any time apply EFTA Article 112 to stop FOM - required grounds being social / political / economic / national security emergency
The govt could probably argue that Brexit showed an emergency.

Mother Yes a sharp long shock would pile on pressure to rejoin far more than this WA.
However, the cost in ruined lives - maybe actual lives - is too cruel for me.

Even the most Fast Track Rejoin would take months to get to transition
I dread to think how much GDP would be lost permanently

Even worse, the far left and the far right want No Deal for a damn good reason:
it is their once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape the country in their extremist vision

I'm one of the "USE extremists" who actually want a United States of Europe,
but I wouldn't try to force the UK to be part of even the current EU if it means taking such risks for ordinary people.

Brexit has totally buggered up my retirement plans and I want my future back, but not at such cost to others.

How a government can have spent >2 years and getting only this is beyond me.

Well, if you start off announcing that pretty much every important feature of EU membership is a 'red line' (FoM, CU, SM, ECJ etc) then it's a bit difficult to achieve unicorns...

{Brexit has totally buggered up my retirement plans and I want my future back, but not at such cost to others.}
Pretty much the same for me. I had a bit of house improvement followed by a nice glass of red each day on the patio for the next few years, now I will have to work (when I turn the computer off).

Someone posted on a local FB site and compared being in the EU with genocide taking place in his country, by which he meant the UK

Once this WA is voted through, that's it, we ve zero idea or say in what we end up with.

It leaves us with a loss of sovereignty and will give a deal that is worse than we ve got now.

So i hope Labour etc vote it down.

We can't cope with 1-2 hours wait at Dover. Our whole import-export system depends on frictionless borders. And there is not enough space for the lorries to wait.

Well, after watching C4 News, which comprehensively covered the WA, I think I got that the upshot will be Labour, SNP, Greens, up to 90 Tories, (and others?) will vote against it. So it doesn’t stand a chance.
Starmer was cross that the clock has been run down so much that some may feel they have no choice but to vote for it.

I very much doubt whether 90 Tories will vote against it. When it comes down to it, they dutifully troop through the government lobby.

A glimmer of good news, in that Theresa May appears to have committed to maintaining the status of the European Convention of Human Rights: twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1065571899063877632

{We can't cope with 1-2 hours wait at Dover. Our whole import-export system depends on frictionless borders. And there is not enough space for the lorries to wait.}
Unless I am mistaken the 'deal' that Theresa is waving around keeps SM/CU rules as they are for a while at least so there would be no particular reason for increased delay. What happens in the months after 29 March will determine the actions of the manufacturers. No deal, as has been said many times is a different ballgame.

Oh, and the DUP will vote against.
Robert Peston on Facebook this afternoon thinks the Tory rebels will reduce in numbers, but that May will still lose:

....But in a humiliating moment for May in the Commons this afternoon, Duncan Smith and Paterson said thanks but no thanks. They will never support her deal for as long as the backstop is in the Withdrawal Agreement.
So will Tory Brexiters and the DUP now cease their carping, put up the white flag and rejoice that May is reborn as glorious Britannia of Brexit?
Hmmm. Stranger things have happened but that seems as likely as me receiving a call up for the England football team.
The DUP will not be able to support a Brexit deal that includes a legally binding backstop that they see as potentially putting up a barrier between NI and GB, when the intention in the PD to avoid the backstop has no legal force - as Nigel Dodds, leader of the DUP's 10 MPs, made clear on my show last night.
The number of Tory rebels will shrink, doubtless. But a core will never be persuaded to back May's deal, for reasons similar to the DUP's reservations - though their fear is less about fragmenting of the EU, and more about the possibility that the UK will remain in transition for another couple of year and then in the customs union via the backstop forever after, thus depriving the UK parliament of the control of the UK economy they seek.
Which means when the Commons votes on this, May is set to lose. The uncertainty is quite how big she loses - because it is the magnitude of that defeat that will determine whether something like her deal is eventually Britain's Brexit or whether it will be ripped to shreds.

Well, we've learned the ERG can't even manage to get 48 MPs to write a damn letter !

I've read that May will keep bringing back the WA to the HoC, from December right up until March

Hr hand will be much stronger for a 2nd try in January, if the ECJ by then have said she can unilaterally revoke - that would be an implicit threat to Brexiters.

If she can whittle away the softer ERG MPs with fear of a GE, she has a decent chance of reducing the rebels eventually down to about 25,
while a few Labour MPs will probably vote for the WA in the end.

By Brexit Day, I'd rate the chances of the WA passing as 50:50

So it’s ok for MPs to have a second (and subsequent) vote on the WA, but not for the people to have a second vote on it?

Hypocritical.

We'll be a few years in transition, during which time I'd expect prepping for the CU fallback, including lorry parks & warehouses

• we certainly can't cope now with 2 hour delays, but we could if that is done

It gives business time to change their systems, which they also could if it's just 2 hours

The alternative of relocating plants is horrendously expensive & disruptive for most

• Nissan has invested nearly GBP 4 billion in Sunderland - so they will try to hang on until the last possible moment

Transition gives time for negotiating something better, as well as prepping for the CU++ if there isn't.
However, possible prepping for No Deal is limited, as it would be such a severe step change for trade, transport, the economy

Hester It's comparatively quick & easy to organise repeated votes for MPs, as that's standard business,
but very complicated & time-consuming to organise a referendum, as each is a unique process.

It would also require the EU to agree at this very late stage to an A50 extension

• so it is not solely within the power of the govt or the HoC

Currently both May and Corbyn oppose FOM and oppose a PV

A big problem is the leaders of the govt & Opposition, chosen by 80% of those who voted

Yes, I guess we could do a lot of preparation in 3-4 years (basically concreting over most of East Kent while lots of manufacturing business moves out - splendid) but I still think it will require a massive practical and cultural adaptation.

Oh well - perhaps the increased prices and limited availability of imports will reduce the depressing British fondness for buying piles of useless crap.

Evening oh wise ones

I might have the opportunity to put a question to my MP but I need a killer question.

Background: he campaigned to remain, Tory in a safe seat, nice guy, good local links and reasonably effective local MP. Since the ref has toed the party line and is now supporting the PM’s WA.

For context - I am applying for a (limited) place at a meeting with MP & local People’s Vote group.

I was thinking of a question along the lines of “If PM’s WA agreement is voted down (potentially twice) and ‘No Deal’ becomes a real possibility, given the enormous risks to our local industry, what will you do to ensure we do not leave the EU without a deal?”

Is that a bit of an obvious question? Does anyone have a different burning question?

Thanks

How about asking him what he wants the final deal to look like? (Norway+, Canada+, etc.)

Ask him where May gets her one liners from eg Brexit means Brexit, Strong and stable and now I am determined to deliver it.

Its really fcuking annoying

The Maybot has a very limited operating system that badly needs upgrading

Meanwhile, 1 / 200 people are homeless - and the political parties are too busy to pay attention

At least 320,000 homeless people in Britain, says Shelter

www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/22/at-least-320000-homeless-people-in-britain-says-shelter

Hr hand will be much stronger for a 2nd try in January, if the ECJ by then have said she can unilaterally revoke - that would be an implicit threat to Brexiters.

If she can whittle away the softer ERG MPs with fear of a GE, she has a decent chance of reducing the rebels eventually down to about 25, while a few Labour MPs will probably vote for the WA in the end.

BigChoc I agree that a court ruling that Article 50 can be unilaterally withdrawn might encourage some of the Brexit fanatics to back May’s deal rather than risk no Brexit at all. However, I’d also expect it to embolden others to vote the deal down as no deal may no longer be perceived as a credible threat.

May saying there won't be a PV while she is PM

So, a PV would require either a govt collapse and a GE
or the Tories would have to topple her and elect a leader in favour of a PV - a harcore Remainer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/nov/22/brexit-talks-theresa-may-eu-hancock-rejects-claims-talks-are-in-trouble-saying-last-minute-hitches-normal-in-eu-negotiations-politics-live?page=with:block-5bf6e187e4b0c6aba9994671#block-5bf6e187e4b0c6aba9994671

Andrew Percy, a Conservative, asks for an assurance that the government will never put forward legislation for a second referendum.

May says she can give that assurance.
It would not be people’s vote, it would be a politicians’ vote, she says.