Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

[RedToothBrush]

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

The GFA doesn’t specifically forbid anything. It’s not a set of rules, it is basically a constitutional agreement. But an open border, as well as National rights, are implicit throughout the GFA. If a border is once more enforced between the north and the rest of Ireland then the GFA will be viewed as torn up, so our devolution will end, cross community power sharing will end, we’ll have lost our right not to be discriminated against for carrying Irish passports and will once again not be hired by civil Service/ big business etc, and the armed civil rights struggle will begin again overnight. I don’t see how a responsible government can support that risk by having No deal (without NI exceptions) on a PV ballot. And an irresponsible government that wants to tear up the GFA would not be offering a PV, they’d be taking the country straight to no deal.

I think there are lots of Tory (mostly) politicians who don’t give a rat’s arse about the international consequence of ending the GFA, nor the direct consequences within NI. They don’t want the resumption of bombs targeting the City/Royal family/their own party conference either though.

Why not ask the Scots if they understand the STV system instead of saying that it's not understood in the UK?

I just think a 'PV' is the quickest route to 'no deal'. I don't want another referendum.

It is laughable that the ERG just move the goalposts nearer the cliff edge whenever TM looks like scoring. Fuckers. I think she's played this hand about as badly as she could from the country's point of view. I don't feel sorry for her tonight, though I have done in the past. But basically what she has done is give us a short timescale, spend most of it keeping everything as opaque as possible and then produce something from a hat about two minutes before the lights go out with the encouraging message 'it's too late for anything else'. She really is a natural dictator of the Franco type. No wonder she hates the ECJ or any external authority. No wonder she's an Anglican.

With the ignorance displayed by Raab and the rest of Cabinet about where even our food comes from
and the delusional belief in the Uk having a strong hand in the negotiations

it is quite possible that the ERG and Tory right think the IRA can*t start up again.

It's true that the IRA would have to recruit, train and arm a new generation for an all-out campaign on the Beitish mainland,
but I suspect some of the younger ones from the Troubles are still quite capable of a few strikes at key City targets

I was just about to make that point Peregrina : we already use STV for our council elections in Scotland . We can number as many choices as we want - so if there are 8 candidates, we can rank up to 1 to 8 - so that if "our" candidate doesn't get a majority in the first round, then the rest of the ranked votes get progressively allocated until the thresholds are met. It gets complicated though because they are 3 or 4 person wards. And you can also choose to only put down 1 choice (although you then run the risk of your vote only being used in the first round and then discarded).

There was one memorable year, when on a single election day, we had to vote using three different systems: constituency MSP - FPTP/First Past The Post ; List MSPs - d'Hondt system (PR/Proportional Representation) - but a hybrid form, based in part on the constituency MSPs elected; Council Elections - STV/Single Transferable Vote

The Electoral Commission did report after those elections that there had been a degree of confusion Iirc, there was a higher than usual percentage of spoiled votes.

It didn't help that they were also trialling a computerised automatic counting system . The results were late that year!

And then there is a Westminster which is pure FPTP and the EU Parliament which is pure d'Hondt (PR).

Doesn't England use STV for mayoral elections or is that just FPTP? What about the police commissioners? (Although I understand they were a bit of a damp squib )

What I have read is possible:
the UK and RoI could apply WTO waivers for the NI border as an exceptional case and wait for any WTO member to object

It is such a tiny % of total EU trade and exclusively UK / RoI trade, so that no other country would suffer any new disadvantage

The WTO courts are barely functional after years of the US blocking the appointment of new judges - under Obama too
In practice, the only sanctions for breaches are retaliatory sancions by other members,
who for the NI border, might not bother .... unless they wish to be awkward for political reasons

The problem with STV in this case is that any 2nd ref would take place in a very bitter atmosphere,
with all sides ready to cry foul if they lose.

A narrow Remain win would cause another 40 years of resentment at having been "cheated"
or a Leave win would cause anger at losing what we have

We have no idea if / when there would be a chance to reverse that decision

Very different to Scottish elections, where parties just accept the result, even if they don't like it
.. and they know they can vote for the opposite in a few years

unless they wish to be awkward for political reasons

So an objection would be a given then.

The WTO courts are barely functional after years of the US blocking the appointment of new judges

So Britain can trade under WTO rules but also if there is a dispute nobody will enforce WTO rules - not very reassuring!

Also how would you check that goods crossing between ROI and NI were exclusively from ROI and NI and not from rUK and rEU?

The news of a fire in a boiler room at a house in NI in the last couple of days is a useful reminder that 'trouble' is not far away, as the fire seemed to have been caused by someone putting a couple of AK47s, shotguns and ammunition on top of the boiler probably the day before it caught fire. Fortunately no one was injured but it demonstrates that the stashes of weapons are still around.
Having just written this now I am speculating that they were meant to be found just to 'ratchet up' the threat. The guns are thought to have been linked to a couple of non fatal shootings a couple of years ago.

I am sure neither the Irish nor English will allow threats of law breaking to sway them in any direction ever.

bigchocfrenzy I do find it a bit depressing the idea that every one has to pussyfoot around the Irish border issue so as not to reawaken The Troubles. Why must it be assumed that at the first hint of adjustment to aspects of the GFA, they'll reach for the semtex again, having learned nothing since the end of The Troubles has brought a degree of prosperity to NI not seen before?

As a remainer I would accept this deal and over the transition period we will come to senses and move towards Norway model.

No deal is unacceptable to parliament for very good reason, it will be horrific. If May loses this and is gone those looking to replace her are no deal nutjobs, many of whom were employed in senior positions during this negotiation and frankly, fucked it all up. Corbyn is unelectable. Time will get rid of him and hopefully someone sensible will replace.

PV is risky, esp if no deal is an option. I don’t believe the majority of the public are any more informed or less likely to be sucked in by liars (of any side) than before. People also become entrenched in views if they feel they’re being played or condescended to.

Remain shouldn’t happen sadly. It will do no good, we can’t go back to where we were. People won’t accept the humiliation. Plus there are upsides to leaving, if done gradually.

Why must it be assumed that at the first hint of adjustment to aspects of the GFA, they'll reach for the semtex again

It’s not just about Semtex. It’s about political support for the break up of the union. Every border constituency is held by Sinn Fein.

Also the SNP are not going to happily sit back while NI gets special access to the EU.

Posters from NI have posted on various reads about how easy it would be to slip back. The sectarian divide is very real and like a wound not fully healed, it's easy to open it again. And for what?

Sadly for some the 'Troubles' have not quite gone away. Granted it is nothing like as bad as it was but there are still punishment beatings and unknown quantities of guns etc stashed around the area.
I have no idea what the true scale is but the 'threat' is ever present.
Xenia's assertion is a little odd in that it is gradually being revealed how Russian money was used to 'sway' the vote towards leave.
I wonder why there was a couple of cases of poisoning a short while back, and it has been quiet again of late?

{Remain shouldn’t happen sadly. It will do no good, we can’t go back to where we were. People won’t accept the humiliation. Plus there are upsides to leaving, if done gradually.}

I agree with this.
For there to have been a quick U turn within a few weeks of the leave vote (when people could have been told the true meaning of Leave and how disastrous the consequences will be) it may have been red faces all around and a blip in the economy but things would be OK.
Now the whole ball game has changed. The UK has spent 2 1/2 years insulting the EU in the most undiplomatic manner. Everyone in the EU knows it is not 'perfect' and that things could be done a bit better but they have not turned it into a tirade of nasty, vicious, usually incorrect soundbites.
With this in mind the UK NEEDS to leave. It will be horrible for many years and will expose the government's (both sides) inability to actually run a unified country.
I voted remain, and if there had been a 'U turn' early on would have still voted remain. The UK has lit a 'bomb' under itself and is too pig headed to blow out the fuse.

Russian money did not result in the leave vote. I am a remainer but I am pretty certain the leavers won fair and square and now what we need most is certainty and getting on with it.

IheartNiles you mention upsides to leaving. Care to tell us what they are?

They better be pretty big and impressive after the damage done so far and further mess we are likely to be in.

Russian money was used to 'influence' the vote, and targeted campaigns by the likes of Cambridge Analytica were part of that.
Since the vote result was so close, only just over the margin of possible error it will be what swung it sufficiently.
The fact that the likes of the ERG stand to gain massively at a personal level is also taking it away from a 'free and fair vote'. There is a law about tax coming in shortly after the March leave date which will massively help those who have a lot of money invested.
The fact that companies and many influential people and groups have NDAs preventing them speaking out is further evidence of things being not 'far and above board'.

We don't know what influence Russian money did or didn't have. It needs to be investigated and decisions that may have been need to be halted.

If we push on with Brexit and find out later the money was an influence we can't change the decision.

This issue is fundamental to the democracy leave voters love so much.

Iheartniles (we have a pair of cats called Frasier and Niles ): ds is struggling with an exercise as part of his Politics and IR degree to come up with 3 positives about the UK leaving the EU, so if you could describe some, he'd be very grateful

He's finding it easier to come up with the 3 positives for the EU of the UK leaving

@prettybird when he works there out can you tell us. It might be interesting if a remainer can come up with the reasons the leavers totally fail to provide.

I've just come onto this thread in the hope that someone will help me understand something.

When parliament votes on the brexit deal, do they do so anonymously?

So, for example, the SNP say they will vote against it - will we know exactly who in that party voted against it or will it be anonymous meaning theoretically an SNP could vote for it and we don't know who that MP was?

How will it work please?

We can't go back, I agree. The EU is based a lot around negotiation, compromise and cooperation and our politicians have shown themselves to be incapable of that. We sent David Davies ffs - I mean that's practically an act of war (only half joking...) We've poisoned our reputation for at least a generation, probably two, and were we to remain now we'd find it incredibly hard to get anything done. It kills me a bit to say it, but we have to go.

That said, No Deal should simply not be an option. If it had been an overwhelming, decisive vote to Leave that would be one thing, but it was extremely close and of course subsequent revelations have shown the dodgy stuff that was going on too. No deal would be as much a betrayal of democracy as the Brexiters insist remaining would be. We should take the interim deal and get going with some actual bloody diplomacy to rebuild the relationships this government has been merrily stamping all over, and get some form of Norway-esque deal.