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Brexit

Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2018 14:52

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

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merrymouse · 17/11/2018 17:09

I’n Sure you have all covered this before, but what happens to the backstop in the event of ‘no deal’ and how does that tie in to the idea that we can trade on WTO terms?

prettybird · 17/11/2018 17:11

The WA can't include any ongoing trade commitments - that's why they are in a separate 15 page "Notice of Intent" (not sure what they formally called it). If it did, it would need much longer to get formal agreement from the E27 as it would require formal agreement from every single one of them (and iirc some of countries also require approval from devolved/regional assemblies), as any one country can veto a trade deal.

As it is, by not including trade commitments, the WA only requires QMV, which given the way that Barnier has kept the E27 informed and on board unlike May with her government, let along parliament Hmm, he can be confident of it passing that particular hurdle.

HesterThrale · 17/11/2018 17:20

This is making me cross. I don’t want to see him any more. Let’s boycott.

David Cameron to reveal truth about his time in Downing Street in BBC documentary

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/culture/television/david-cameron-downing-street-bbc-documentary/amp/

Mightybanhammer · 17/11/2018 17:53

@1tisilerclerc agree with all you've said in last few posts.

Mightybanhammer · 17/11/2018 17:55

@tisILeclerc.

Désolé Wink

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 18:06

Is there anyone out there with a kind of intelligent take on this?

1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 18:16

If I remember correctly (it has been covered before) but 'basic' WTO terms for tariffs are almost cripplingly high, 20 or 30 percent on many things and more on some specific items. Countries can then get together and make agreements between themselves, but in a complicated way if there are other players in the market so for example Wales selling Lamb to India. Anyone else selling lamb to India would have an input on the deal. This makes the trade deals very lengthy, around 10 years.
The ERG 'oh just use WTO rules' is condensing a 10 year tricky negotiation into a 5 word soundbite. With crippling tariffs that would be imposed during that period it is foolish.

1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 18:18

{Is there anyone out there with a kind of intelligent take on this?}
Not many in the places that really matter.

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 18:24

Anyone remainer supporting Mays deal has to be prepared for a very bad FTA in 20 months time, we'll have no say in that and little leverage with the EU

The deal should be voted down and then we have the option of a vote or better still a revoke, as May herself said "no brexit"

Jason118 · 17/11/2018 18:27

I'm with jasjas on this - time to play hardball and go for a new vote, including remain

SwedishEdith · 17/11/2018 18:35

May herself has subliminally put 'no Brexit' out there. Deliberate.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 18:37

Remain will be so easy and cost us nothing. But that would be capitulating to the EU.

Typical UK hubris.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 18:40

Swedish,

I noticed that too!

bellinisurge · 17/11/2018 18:52

Just chatting about the subliminal message in rl with family.
Also noticed the talk of cross party agreement to avoid No Deal.

Annandale · 17/11/2018 18:55

placematking [gasp, wheeze]

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 18:55

The UK wouldn't be capitulating to the EU, we ve 3 options and as they say "in the national interest" only remain gives us the best possible deal.

If May truly was working for UK PLC this would be what she'd be working night and day for.

ATM she is giving us a deal that 50% of the ERG think is OK... there is absolutely no-way on earth we should be accepting this, with no idea of our future relationship, what will we be facing post WA if May is ousted and Leadsom or Gove are in charge?

Tanith · 17/11/2018 18:55

I’m beginning to think I’d rather be governed by Europe than by this embarrassing rabble.
Then maybe someone in authority would address the shocking issues raised by the UN earlier this week instead of infighting and backstabbing to make themselves millions by impoverishing their own citizens.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 18:57

Perhaps May will cajole JC to support the Agreement. So that if he and Lab party gets the Agreement through, she will resign and there will be a GE.

Who knows? Anything is possible now.

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 18:59

Resign after getting the WA through? not a chance, she plans on being Tory leader and PM for a lot longer yet :(

Bagadverts · 17/11/2018 19:05

ERG/brexiteers have pulled apart the deal and pointed out the problems from their pov.

I so wish the fall back wasn't called "no deal". It really doesn't seem that bad.
"Default WTO which means x% tariff on these things you care about buying and y% on these that you work in that factory for export, no time to sort out frictionless travel even if both sides want it and these other consequences... "

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 19:05

Jas,

Unfortunately she may need Labour to push it through. And I don't think she wants to be PM for much longer, she is an amazing woman no matter what your party loyalty is, and for that she deserves a lot of credit for her resilience in the face of some idiots.

Some mad Tories may scupper it. They cannot explain why though which makes me laugh out loud. LOL.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 17/11/2018 19:13

Tanith I’ve just been having the exact same thoughts.

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 19:15

May is a nasty peace of work, her treatment of the Windrush generation and cutting Police numbers inc Armed response officers (but not gov protection) putting us all at risk, says what sort of woman she is... self serving.

I'm hopeful that JC at least wont support her WA.

I'm sure plenty of very evil people have worked equally hard, its the direction of that work that matters.

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 19:16

sorry piece

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 19:21

However...... if she gets the agreement through she will be remembered for her resilience in the face of idiots and bullies with no counter argument.