Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

[RedToothBrush]

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

........she will be remembered for the end result! which will leave the UK poorer, with less international influence and a national humiliation when we ask to rejoin.
The counter argument is to hold a vote or revoke, she is completely dismissing both, being bloody difficult is not an admirable quality in any walk of life.

Neville Chamberlain pushed on through thick and thin in his desire for peace with Hitler, he is not remembered for that though.

Relying on Corbyn to save us is ludicrous

He is a lifelong Brexiter
and sees post´Brexit chaos as his big chance ot coming to power in an emergency, able to renationalise vast swathes of the economy and reshape it

Crash out, without transition, is the A50 default

If this WA is voted down, the HoC cannot force either a Peoples Vote or a direct revocation of A50 (which also depends on ECJ)

Corbyn does not have a majority in the HoC to do anything

If Corbyn tries for a Vote of No Confidence, the DUP may well vote to keep the Tories in govt,
just to run down the clock until No Deal

Even if there is a GE, there is likely to be a hung Parliament again

A significant section of the public are hard Leavers who want No Deal

The Electoral Commission would NOT allow a referendum without the option of No Deal
so long as it remains a popular OPTION

BCF there isn't the money in the economy to re-nationalise, even less after a no-deal brexit, he couldn't borrow.....Corbyn has to follow Labour party policy, he isn't Stalin, no matter your opinion of him.

He has stated his negotiating policy with the EU "full access to SM and a close CU" this is his long term aim, not just a WA.

imho the Tories wont want to be associated with a no deal brexit economic disaster and will seek alternatives.

What is the best result for Britain now? I note that Scotland and NI have quietened down already.

Stay, Agreement or Go.

The calibre of our Reps is abysmal IMV.

The EU / Barnier wanted Norway ++, which would have kept almost all benefits of EU membership

This complicated future franwork part of the WA was negotiated at the last moment because May was determined on

a) No FOM
b) No NI border with the RoI or with GB
c) No ECJ
d) Protecting exporters and JIT manufacturers

She's succeeded with a) and partly succeeded with the other 3

BUT
That future framework can be altered - with mutual agreement - during the transition phase whenthe actual trade negotiations take place

Either this govt sees sense, or with a new govt, after Corbyn retires and is replaced by an electable Labour leader
The EU would certainly accept a switch back to their preferred option of Norway ++

imho the Tories wont want to be associated with a no deal brexit economic disaster and will seek alternatives.

They might not want to but they may end up blundering into it through their own ineptitude. Of course we all know some of them do want it.

Corbyn is an irrelevance atm
except that he stops any Tory MPs crossing the floor to form an emergency cross-party Brexit coalition.

He is a Brexiter and would fight to stop Remain

Norway/EFTA would be a great end result.

Wouldn't the inclusion of a no deal option be better for Remain? as the Leave vote would be split between No-deal and Mays deal.

There is a faint chance that if the ERG vote down the WA that May might be sufficiently pissed to revoke A50 unilaterally - if the ECJ say she can

A Peoples Vote for No Deal would totally prevent a last minute A50 revoke
atm, a PV would be far too dangerous

Thats a good thing for Labour, coalition with the Tories would finish them, just as it polished of the Libdems.

jas The Electoral Commission will NOT allow a vote that is a stitch-up
This is a democracy and we can't exclude options we don't like

A PV is whatever the HoC decide, so it might even be between this vote and No Deal

For those of us having to get into the detail of the draft agreement nothing replaces reading the things (500+ pages) but this is quite a good EU summary including some pictures which is short and fairly easy to follow. It also has helpful information on rights of individuals to live here etc

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6422_en.pdf

We are out of time for anything except accepting this WA,
or hoping May decides to wreck her own party and revoke next year

Corbyn can do nothing

I am a bit sceptical about ECJ allowing unilateral revocation of A50.

Primarily because any EU country could invoke it and then decide, nah, we got it wrong or something.

But we shall see.

Great thread. Where are the Brexiteers though?

Long road ahead.

But you really have to admire the resilience and strength of T May in the face of uninformed bullies/idiots in her own party, no matter where your loyalties lie.

Great time to be living through history all the same. Whatever the outcome.

bofsy That misuse was always a concern of the EU
and I gather that unilateral revocation will be specifically excluded in the next treaty update

Lord Kerr, who wrote A50, says it could be unilateral; some lawyers agree, others disagree

How the ECJ would rule on A50 in the current treaty will hopefully be revealed not too long after 27 November

It would certainly be a useful lever, an implicit threat, for May to have up her sleeve before the HoC votes in December

Revocation with the agreement of the other 27 is possible - although Hungary and Poland, possibly others, might veto
However, even to get agreement would take time and would leak

The ERG may be holding back from forcing a leadership vote partly because losing would mean they couldn*t bring May down if she attempted revocation.

Yes, my view is that A50 can't be revoked. It is a bit of a non point as Labour and the Tories have said they won't apply to revoke it anyway so I doubt it will take us much further even if the CJEU says it can be revoked.

It is generally an interesting legal issue as to when a notice can be withdrawn. if you give notice to terminate a contract or you walk out of your employment saying that's it - most of the time you are not allowed to change your mind during the notice period and that makes sense as otherwise the other party once they accept your notice might have taken steps and done things and wasted their time and if you can just chop and change that does not give much legal certainty. I expec tthe CJEU to say you cannot withdraw the notice. The fact the current EU provision does not have any mechanism to withdraw a notice and simply says at end of the period you leave gives even more weight to my side of the argument.

Big Choc.

Agreed. Spot on. Well to me anyway!

BFC, i don't thing you understood what i was saying, having 3 options risks splitting the Leave vote and that shouldnt be allowed, for this reason, there must be only 2 options.

But yes time is slipping away for a vote and if Labour help vote down the deal, then a revocation is possible, so surely Corbyn is not irrelevant?

Comres shows Remain falling - that's compared to Jan, but still shows a PV is vey risky

Europe Electss@EuropeElects*

EU membership ref.

Remain: 51% (-4)
Leave: 49% (+4)

+/- vs. 11 Jan. '18

Field work: 14/11/18 – 15/11/18
Sample size: 1,752

This chaos has hit the Tories but only a few %

Under any other leader but Corbyn, I'd expect Labour to be 20-30% ahead
Blair - when Major was NOT trashing the country*s future, led by over 20% some of the time

ComRes poll:
Labour 40% (-)
Con 36% (-3)
LDems 9% (-)
UKIP 7% (+2)

+/- vs. 26-27 Sep. '18

Field work: 14/11/18 – 15/11/18
Sample size: 2,000

Opinium:
Lab 39% (+2)
Con 36% (-5)
Lib Dems 7% (-1)
UKIP 8% (+2)

The default assumption of many Remainers is that A50 can be revoked. I'm not sure it's helpful if it's a false hope. I think clarity would be helpful either way at this stage. It would focus minds.

jas Revocation may or may not be possible
but it is entirely up to May to try to revoke , NOT Corbyn

and as Xenia posted, both party leader said Brexit must happen

OK, politicians U-turn all the time
BUT
probably not when the polls show the country so divided

May would be especially reluctant to revoke, because Tory voters are about 70% Leave and most of them would prefer No Deal
They might well return to UKIP, or at least not bother voting Tory again
and the whole right wing of her party would be in outright revolt

Revoke certainly wouldn*t mean the country has a civil war - maybe a few riots - but it would also certainly mean the Tory party would have an all-out civil war that would keep it out of contention for decades.

I doubt she would wreck the Tory party, even to save the country

red I regard it just as an implicit threat May could hold over Brexiters

• an ECJ decision that unilateral revocation is possible -

i.e. Vote for the WA or No Brexit

I doubt if she would actually revoke and wreck her party

Also, the ECJ may well state unilateral is NOT possible anyway
We must wait and see

We have to wait for ECJ ruling near Christmas now.

They know the urgency of this too.

The UK timetable is important here too, votes in the Commons and so on. I don't think the Confidence vote will happen, but that's just me.

What a time to be living within history for the future historians.