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Brexit

Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2018 14:52

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

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jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 20:37

I thought the issue isn't whether art50 can be revoked or not, its if UK can do it unilaterally.

Given Merkel and Macrons regret at UK leaving, wouldn't they accept our request (in the highly unlikely event UK wanted to revoke)

Violetparis · 17/11/2018 20:39

BigChoc what do you think May will do as it seems very unlikely she can get the deal through Parliament ?

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 20:42

jas,

Yes you are right, the ECJ case is whether A50 can be revoked unilaterally without the agreement of the 27 EU States.

Strange that the issue of revocation (even with 27 agreement or not) hasn't been addressed first. Am I missing something?

GoodnightMooncup · 17/11/2018 20:42

If there is a people's vote with three options (eg TM's deal / remain /no deal), surely it could be done so that voters could list their choices in order of preference - and if none of the options got more than 50 % then the second preferences would be counted. That would help stop tactical voting.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 20:46

GoodnightMooncup,

I respectfully suggest that anything other than an X opposite the preferred choice could be problematic for voters who have never had to place a choice in order of preference.

FPTP has deadened political discourse IMV.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 21:02

jas The problem if the Uk can't revoke unilaterally is that any of the 27 members has a veto

e.g. Hungary, Poland, ... anyone offended by UK ministers insulting them with comparisons to Hitler or the Soviet Union

Do France and Germany even want the Uk to Remain now:

Merkel reportedly said many months ago to Uk officials:

"Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende."
(“Better a horrible ending, than horror without end“)

BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 21:08

STV with 3 choices would be theoretically OK
BUT
a narrow victory for one side would always be disputed with the claim that voters wee confused - and would probably be justified

Hell, if the ref resulted in a Remain of anything under 60%, Leavers would forever claim they were robbed of their 1st win

Also, any Leave campaign during a PV would play on the idea of unfairness and maybe whip up enough emotion and confusion for No Deal.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 21:14

No offence intended, but would FPTP voters actually understand STV with three choices.

There is a democratic deficit there if so.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 21:15

Violet I doubt if May herself knows
Imo she has never had a coherent plan since she came into office,
just been stumbling around from one day to the next, trying to keep her party together

That's why we've got this "cake" which turns out to have shit on top, instead of cherries
but it's all there is
and maybe we can swap it during transition for a fresh Norwegian cake

The most likely alternative to the WA is jumping over the cliff, then crawling on broken bones to beg for last year's stale Norwegian cake

BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 21:23

It is the problem with 3 choices

If she in desperation turns to PV, May could say we already decided to Leave, now choose between 2 Leave options:
this WA vs No Deal

It might save her party by

  1. avoiding a Tory civil war - they would regard any Remain option as deepest betrayal

  2. averting blame for the economic fallout etc - the people first chose Leave, then how to Leave

Xenia · 17/11/2018 21:33

I don't think the notice can be revoked just by the UK and even if it can the Labour and Tory parties have I believe said they will not revoke it.

The only choice are this deal or crash out. The deal isn't that bad particularly if you want a lot of trade with the EU which anyone with any sense does.

bellinisurge · 17/11/2018 21:40

If no deal was even put as an option for a People’s Vote there are plenty of ignorant numpties who would vote for it. Yes, I am allowed to call anyone who wants no deal an ignorant numpty. That's the polite version.

TatianaLarina · 17/11/2018 21:40

Macron in particular has been clear that he would welcome a UK decision to stay in the EU. ‘For sure’ were his words, ‘this is about history not domestic interests’.

It’s in the EU’s interest to retain us. Whether we can get there politically is another matter.

If it happened the EU would slam the door shut treatywise so no country can pull this shit again.

However, I don’t see any real way of pulling this round now. I can see how it could happen, I just don’t think it’s going to.

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 21:40

This isn't "the Deal" its just what we get for 20 months, after that any thing could happen, as i said earlier, we lose all leverage after next March.
Its insane to leave on these terms.

Violetparis · 17/11/2018 21:42

Thanks for your thoughts BigChoc, what a mess !

1tisILeClerc · 17/11/2018 21:43

French protesters are still protesting and at least some will be carrying on tomorrow.
Apparently 282,000 protestors across France. Quite a few injured unfortunately and a lady died in an accident this morning.

jasjas1973 · 17/11/2018 21:45

In 4 months, anything could and will happen, we don't know what is around the corner.
But the number one thing that must happen is for this WA to be voted down, once that's through Parliament, Brexit is assured, there is nothing to stop it.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 21:55

FPTP system has stifled a lot of political debate.

Because many think what will my vote change anyway.

GoodnightMooncup · 17/11/2018 22:06

I think that preferences were used in the London mayoral election and people seemed to cope with that? There's always the option of only marking one choice and the vote would still be counted.

Whereas if a FPTP system was used then people would feel they had to vote tactically - if I really wanted remain I might vote for TM's 'deal' because I thought it was the more popular option to make sure that 'no deal' didn't win. The result wouldn't be very democratic.

RedToothBrush · 17/11/2018 22:17

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6400431/Brexiteer-coup-11-votes-short-triggering-no-confidence-vote-Theresa-May.html
Lemming letter club: Brexiteer coup 'is STILL 11 letters short' despite 23 MPs going public. Whips battle to crush 'reckless' plot to topple the PM - but Tory rebels insist they will have the 48 letters needed next week

Updated at 18.22 tonight.

Mail reporting they are stuck on 37 letters

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Quietrebel · 17/11/2018 22:17

I do think a two round ref would be the only way. Yes, it would mean voting twice but at least the question would be precise. Do we still want to Leave, yes/no. Yes, then how (deal/no deal).
That way it's fair and doesn't split the leave vote.

bofsy1 · 17/11/2018 22:18

The point I made is that voters haven't a clue about STV. Never having had to vote that way before.

X marks the spot and then leave the polling booth.

London Mayoralty elections don't count for an issue such as this for the entire UK.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 22:18

jas what do you mean we "lose all leverage" ?
We have no leverage now, because time has almost run out

We are leaving on 29 March, either with this deal or no Deal
barring a very unlikely U-turn by May

During transition, the negotiations could change to EEA / EFTA if the UK wants

  • it was always the EU's preferred option, so no need for leverage
BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 22:22

Blair and other "EU Ultras" want the WA voted down
because they believe after No Deal that a desperate UK would soon be begging to Rejoin

That's typical Blair
a) accept millions of people suffering "collateral damage"
b) for an end goal he may fail to achieve anyway

BigChocFrenzy · 17/11/2018 22:28

rebel There is no time left for even one referendum

We would have to ask the EU for an extension
and at this late stage they want to get Brexit over so that any WA can be approved by the European Parliament, before it is dissolved for the Euro elections

It would be quite different if there had been a great swing to Remain
but would they want an angry divided UK back, that would just be out to wreck the EU - at least whenever Tories are in power.

That*s why Merkel said:
"Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende."