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Brexit

Westministenders: Well this is getting interesting!

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2018 14:52

The Minister responsible for writing a deal with the EU has succeeded in coming to an agreement. And has subsequently resigned because he can not agree with it. This man previously didn't know where Dover was, and why this was important. This man is a solicitor used to writing and reading complicated documents.

And we are supposed to believe he has done the honourable thing and has quit on a matter of principle. And has in no way, been a Carpetbagger all along and has deliberately intended to scupper a deal.

Mundell is not wrong about his former Cabinet College but its not terribly polite.

Esther has fucked off too. She was cut out the loop over the UC slow down and was precorded as civil servants thought she'd go crackers if she gave a live interview. This seems consistent with reports that she threw a tantrum in the Cabinet meeting, demanding a vote, before Sir Humphrey told her to refer to the Cabinet Handbook that states that votes are not allowed.

Rees-Smugg seems to have triggered a split in the ERG and has submitted a letter to Graham. Graham has been to see Julian, to tell him that he's not had enough fan mail - yet. Other ERG seem more content to just attempt to vote the deal down. Will there be a confidence vote? If there is, will May win? If she does she gets a special prize of 12 months immunity albeit with the booby prize of still having to get a deal through Parliament.

May now seems to be running a minority government as there are suggestions that the confidence and supply deal with the DUP is over. Kate Hoey appear to have joined the DUP. Perhaps she should have resigned from the Labour party first.

Gove was offered the poison chalice of the Brexit Secretary post. Initial reports said he baulked at the responsibility. Will he resign? Is he just going to go for the top job now? There is now suggestion, he hasn't rejected it afterall. Maybe she should just abolish the department and reallocate resources to the Cabinet office (like she's already done anyway).

Mordaunt is meeting the PM this afternoon to be told personally that there isn't a cat in hell's chance that May will have a free vote over Brexit. Just so she can get the PR for her leadership bid. Resignation scheduled for this afternoon.

Hunt and Javid just sat on the front bench after making noises to please leavers and set themselves up for their leadership bid.

Johnson is lurking. No statement today. Got some ringing around to get supporters for his leadership bid? Will he be the stalking horse?

Loathsome and Fox, admit their political careers have reached their zenith, and they got a cat in hell's chance of getting another Cabinet post. They are not resigning. Today at least.

Greyling is currently silent. There is speculation that his resignation is running late. Twitter is having a field day with jokes.

Duncan has said that an ERG candidate won't be able to form a government - implying that Tories would resign the whip if they did.

Stewart, has done his honourable best to support May through thick and thin, with his best Comical Ali impression and spouting any old bollocks on the radio. Bless Little Rory.

Neill retweets him. Soames doesn't sounds unlike them both. Morgan wouldn't mind a Cabinet job again. Soubry doesn't really care who is in charge as long anymore so long as its not the ERG.

Hancock said in Cabinet that he couldn't guarentee no deaths in a no deal situation. Leavers do not have an alternative idea to May's deal but No Deal. They don't mind risking Hancock being unable to protect people from death.

There are 10 days to go until the EU Summit. We have no idea if we will have a clear PM. Two days later we find out if unilateral revokation is an option to save our necks from disaster if we get that far.

If there is a no confidence vote, its penciled in for Tuesday.

The only Brexit certainity you can be sure of is this thread won't make it til then.

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DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 17:00

I think his description as an "ultraloyal" Leave supporter may have something to do with his meteoric rise to anonymity.

An empty taxi arrived at Downing Street, and Steve Barclay got out ....

BackInTime · 16/11/2018 17:05

Boris is keeping very quiet Hmm

1tisILeClerc · 16/11/2018 17:07

From SKY a little while ago. French finance minister saying (UK) leaving will be very expensive for the UK.
Reports that the slowdown in Europe is a big concern with Germany struggling for several reasons. Partly slow sales of cars. Volkswagen have 250K vehicles 'parked up waiting for sale'. Maybe some sphincter trembling in UK car factories might be in order. Leavers have been cheerfully saying in a 'goady fashion' the EU will go down, but the UK will go first.

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 17:07

Jim Pickard @pickardje
Daily Mail turning on Hard Brexit is a cultural moment to rival Dylan going electric

it’s somehow discordant, like watching Richard Briers play a serial killer or something

or reading an editorial in The Economist entitled “The Case For Protectionism”

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borntobequiet · 16/11/2018 17:14

Did Jezza not draw the short straw to become the Left’s leadership candidate? Would restore symmetry to politics were Cons to do same.

DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 17:14

Reports that the slowdown in Europe is a big concern

It would be richly ironic if Brexit were blamed (whether true or not) and the EU tried to get the UK to cough up more ....

RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 17:20

Did Jezza not draw the short straw to become the Left’s leadership candidate?

I believe it was his 'turn' from his faction as everyone else had had a go.

That one has turned out to be utterly fabulous...

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RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 17:30

Election Data @election_data
Didn't think it was possible for the PMs position to be strengthened ahead of the Commons vote until Rees-Mogg decided to move against her. What an absolute ass-hat

She now gets to watch the ERG break itself apart safe in the knowledge she'll win a confidence vote and chooses a Cabinet she likes.

I think it is somewhat premature to say this with certainty. But definitely a really possible outcome and from the cabinet reshuffle it looks like it might be the case. It does however mean she has more difficult members on the back benches, free to vote against her in Parliament.

Jim Pickard @pickardje
some of you haven’t heard of Stephen Barclay but he’s a more credible figure than some who have sat at the cabinet table in the last decade

This isn't difficult, but if there's trouble ahead (and there is), I'd take any Tory mp with an iq above 100 and even a hint of sense.

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RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 17:32

I think his description as an "ultraloyal" Leave supporter may have something to do with his meteoric rise to anonymity

You mean the first Leaver on the list who would take the job.

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RedToothBrush · 16/11/2018 17:33

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
Here’s what I know about new Brexit Secretary..

Liked at Treasury, ex regulator/banker. former whip. Backed PM for leadership. Pragmatic Leaver. Believed in mainly democratic case for Leave, thought too many laws made in Europe passed in UK on the nod without proper UK scrutiny.

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DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 17:42

Didn't think it was possible for the PMs position to be strengthened ahead of the Commons vote until Rees-Mogg decided to move against her. What an absolute ass-hat She now gets to watch the ERG break itself apart safe in the knowledge she'll win a confidence vote and chooses a Cabinet she likes.

Well amongst others I thought it was not only possible, but what would happen.

Following the idea of democracy not being a permanent state of government, you can also work out that interest groups based around the selfish desires of a few members will also not survive long. I'm going to guess that most of the "senior ERG members" (I love the way Moggy tried to make it sound so grand - dipshit) have pretty much filled their boots, and are ready to quit the pyramid scheme that is Brexit. It will only be the desperate desire of the later members mugs that gives it any shape at all. We already know they don't give a shit about the UK, so why should they hang around after they've got what they wanted ?

There aren't enough electrons in the universe to contain how much I would have to type to express how much I loath Theresa May. But in a nod to "the enemy of my enemy", she deserves recognition for standing up to these almost exclusively with, middle-aged men. Especially if - like Thatcher - she was meant to be a stopgap leader.

Once again, if voting Conservative could stop Brexit. I would.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 16/11/2018 17:47

Have just spent most of the day travelling and unable to access the internet. Have only scanned the thread (for which, as ever, thank you red) otherwise, with the speed things, are going I will never catch up. I think these are the main things that have happened. Have I missed anything major?

  1. Gove hasn’t resigned but doesn’t want to be Brexit secretary unless he can renogiate the deal even though there’s no time to renegotiate and this deal is the best we can get.
  1. The Daily Fail now hates Brexiteers, especially Grease-Smug.
  1. Someone nobody has heard of has been told it’s his turn to be Brexit secretary?
  1. ERG is split and the 48 letters haven’t yet materialised

Is that about it?

A thought, if we don’t all BeLeave enough might Tinkerbell die?

DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 17:51

4. ERG is split and the 48 letters haven’t yet materialised

Even if they have, the subsequent no confidence motion looks like a non starter.

TL;DR is that this seems to be the point that - regardless of personal opinions - Tory party groupthink is being re-established, with the ever present (if remote) threat of a Corbyn government as the stick.

If that is the case, then now is not the time to be on the wrong list.

lonelyplanetmum · 16/11/2018 17:58

Zazies link to the UN report into poverty in the U.K. is truly sobering.

I just witnessed the same report of FB and Leavers using the report as justification we are right to leave the EU as 'they' had plenty of time to address poverty in the U.K.

[OMG -Bangs head on desk.]

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says" target="_blank">http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 17:58

We may be in the 48 hr PM grace period and the letters are in fact there

If the ERG - said to number 60-80 - can't write 48 letters, then they've bottled it
We'll see Sunday / Monday

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 18:00

< Joins lonely in banging head on table >

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 18:02

I hope MPs notice this: May beats all other Tory contenders

Europe Electsts@EuropeElects*s

UK, Survation poll:

Preferred PM

May (CON-ECR): 46%
Johnson (CON-ECR): 34%

May (CON-ECR): 43%
Rees Mogg (CON-ECR): 31%

May (CON-ECR): 38%
Davis (CON-ECR): 34%

May (CON-ECR): 43%
Javid (CON-ECR): 28%

Field work: 15/11/18
Sample size: 1,070

Motheroffourdragons · 16/11/2018 18:03

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/11/2018 18:03

I'm surprised the public rate Dozy Dave so far ahead of the field, though

1tisILeClerc · 16/11/2018 18:05

Maybe a dictatorship would be a good idea, as there are a significant number incapable of thinking for themselves.

DGRossetti · 16/11/2018 18:06

We may be in the 48 hr PM grace period and the letters are in fact there If the ERG - said to number 60-80 - can't write 48 letters, then they've bottled it We'll see Sunday / Monday

I'm going to guess Monday, all this will be "forgotten". These are Tories, don't forget.

The ERG may have reached the conclusion that they've reached the buffers for now, and switch to investing in the next possible phase - a Gove PM for 2022 - as some have suggested ready to go the whole Trump and rip up whatever is agreed before then ? Who was it who said that when you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite to them ?

bofsy1 · 16/11/2018 18:06

Boris J is starting up a new party with Farage, funded by Aaron Banks.

To be called UFBREX. United for Brexit. Just in case anyone would remember UKIP.

Ha ha.

bellinisurge · 16/11/2018 18:09

Sounds like a sexually transmitted disease. Nice bit of humour for a Friday.

1tisILeClerc · 16/11/2018 18:09

Portillo suggesting the EU have made a fopar by humiliating the UK with forcing them into the deal.
Well as we all know the UK gov have buggered about for 2 years and not made a viable plan of their own and at the moment the EU's deal is only 1 of 3 or more possibilities, take it or leave it.