Brexiteers, if there was a 'People's Vote' how would you vote?

[millsbynight]

For me? I'd flatly vote No Deal.

Would others vote to stay in the EU or agree to Teresa May's deal?

Everyone I know who voted Leave would still vote Leave (the same goes for those who voted Remain) so I'd be really curious to see what the outcome of a 2nd referendum would generate.

At the point where mass produced car manufacturing becomes uneconomic in the UK, it will stop.
There are a handful of exceptions such as Aston Martin and Morgan who are very 'niche' who could well prosper, but part of their USP is that they are niche and so would never expand significantly. Their production methods will always be more expensive than mass market but like 'exclusive brand' gear of any type it is the exclusivity that gives it value.
A £50 bottle of Chanel costs about 57p to make or something ridiculous. In itself hardly more than to make a 'supermarket own brand' version.
Idealised, textbook economics is not how the real world works, there are far too many other factors.

Right. Lets look at why there are car factories in the UK that export most of their output. Also we will look at why these plants source many components from mainland Europe and often have long supply chains with products crossing the Channel multiple times before final assembly for export.

In doing so we will see that merely because there may be (and it is only a maybe) additional time added to the JIT processes this will not mean that whole factories will close on a whim and relocate to mainland Europe.

I have seen utter nonsense spouted that these JIT processes involve deliveries being needed every 30 mins (or other such intervals) and that even 1 hour's delay will see production stop.

This is project fear on stilts. With such long supply chains which are subject to delays from traffic jams, ferry disruption due to weather etc slack is already built into the system to cope. An hour or two extra delay is not a business-killer. If the Dover-Calais route became too awkward then other routes are available. These other options will be explored and exploited way, way, way before even the inkling of the first spark of an iota of an idea about re-locating the whole plant. The factory is not going to upsticks over night because of a minor increase in delivery times.

One or two hour delay sounds pretty optimistic.
These businesses are not charities. If the supply chain stops working (only 2hour delay would be a real positive) then they will take the business elsewhere.
Why did BMW bring forward its summer factory closure next year? Because it wants to mitigate the effect of anticipated Brexit related delays.
If you know anything about business as you claim to, you will know that most businesses do not have the capacity to ride out too many economic bumps.

Yet you still don't understand my critique of the point.

Boris, he doesn't understand a lot to be fair.

There are just so many other factors that will keep these plants where they are and producing cars for the European market.

Here is one reason: Nissan in Sunderland is one of the most productive car plants in Europe, producing more cars per worker than any other factory.

Think about that. Lazy British workers are the most productive workers in Europe when it comes to producing cars. Why is that?

Remember, this is not just about cost (they may also produce cars for the lowest cost too, I don't know). The British worker produces more cars per person that anywhere else in absolute terms. Is this down to differing setups in the factories i.e. do the Japanese use more capital equipment (robots) in UK factories but use lots of labour in EU27 factories? I doubt this. There are lots of high-tech, capital-intensive car plants in the EU27.

The fact is that the British workers (there may be immigrants in the workforce it is true) are better than those elsewhere in the EU.

This is one reason why the plants will stay. There clearly isn't a huge pool of workers of the same quality as the British within the EU27. The workers they currently have in the EU27 aren't as productive and to acquire more workers (in order to move the UK plants to the EU27) they would have to recruit thousands more (of the less productive) workers and train them up. It takes around a year to fully train a skilled worker for these plants and before you can train the workers you've got to train the trainers. In short there is a huge cost involved in moving production from a worker recruitment point of view and after all that they will end up with less productive workers than they currently have.

OutsideInTheGarden
It is obvious that most on here don't give a damn about theoretical or even practical economics. The issue is far wider than this and arguing the toss about buying a bolt from Sheffield or Okinawa is 'best' has no relevance to those who are rightly concerned and in some cases terrified that supplies of medicines that are essential to keep themselves or loved ones alive are being threatened in any way.
Maybe your thoughts would be welcome on the debate about a headteacher closing the school carpark gates.

Labour and employment practices are another reason for the UK factories to remain open and productive. Have you ever tried to fire a French worker? It's pretty difficult. French employment protections mean that companies find it next to impossible to get rid of unproductive workers. Other European countries are similar.

A flexible labour force is yet another reason why the plants will stay in the UK.

"Nissan in Sunderland is one of the most productive car plants in Europe, producing more cars per worker than any other factory. "

But if productivity is stalled by delays then they won't be. Productivity is reliant on supply chains in JIT industries.

"Lazy British workers are the most productive workers in Europe when it comes to producing cars. Why is that?"

Why not ask Brexiteers Raab and Patel about Lazy British workers? See their comments in Britania Unchanged.

" There clearly isn't a huge pool of workers of the same quality as the British within the EU27. "

Making out like its the quality of the workforce is incorrect, its the whole set up that that maximises productivity.

"It takes around a year to fully train a skilled worker for these plants and before you can train the workers you've got to train the trainers. In short there is a huge cost involved in moving production from a worker recruitment point of view and after all that they will end up with less productive workers than they currently have."

There are existing plants with staff in the EU27, some that are currently under capacity. Your argument is that firms won't move in order to avoid costs, but will remain despite incurring larger costs.

What will actually happen is that current capital stock will be run down and newer models won't be built here, eventually the car industry will be leaving in hard brexit.

You live in a fantasy land, genuinely you do.

Labour costs in the car industry do not make up a large proportion of total costs.

Anyway, I'm intrigued to know why you are saying the opposite to the SSMT.

Fantasy land.

1tisILeClerc - "It is obvious that most on here don't give a damn about theoretical or even practical economics."

You are correct, most people don't give a toss about theoretical or practical economics. I'll tell you who does though, the people who operate businesses and factories. They do this stuff all day, every day. It's pretty much all they think about, the best, most efficient, lowest cost way of doing things. Profit. Profit. Profit.

"The issue is far wider than this and arguing the toss about buying a bolt from Sheffield or Okinawa is 'best' has no relevance to those who are rightly concerned and in some cases terrified that supplies of medicines that are essential to keep themselves or loved ones alive are being threatened in any way."

The fact that most people don't give a toss about practical economics is why they should not go round spouting fear-mongering bollocks such as the above. Claiming, without any grounds whatsoever, that factories will relocate, medicines won't be available is utterly irresponsible fear-mongering.

Leaving aside Brexit, do people worry every day about whether there will be any food in the shops when they go to do their weekly grocery shop? Do people worry whether the pharmacy will have their medicine when they go to collect it?
In the ordinary day to day world, there is nobody centrally planning all of this right now. Nobody. The market provides. The market ensures that bread is in the supermarket when you go to buy it. No bureaucrat sat down and phoned the bakery factory and said that 1tisILeClerc buys 2 loaves on a Saturday morning so make sure you deliver them to Sainsbury's in time.

The market is currently supplying all we need, food and medicines.

There are factories who produce medicines. They sell these medicines in order to make a profit. They export these medicines worldwide. What do you think these companies will do post-Brexit? Cut back production because they don't want to sell to UK customers? Why? Will there be a boycott? International sanctions? There are customers in the UK demanding product as they have been for decades. The same customers, buying the same things for the same price and making profits for the medicine supplier.

Are there laws that will suddenly make it illegal for the company to sell to UK customers? They sell worldwide right now so what is the problem? There isn't one. It's all fear-mongering bollocks and they whole lot of you should just stop it.

You remainers are just sore because people didn't agree with you and thus you run around like chickens with your heads cut off screaming that the sky is falling in. It's pathetic and laughable except that clearly some poor souls believe you. I hope you feel good about scaring sick and vulnerable people.

"There clearly isn't a huge pool of workers of the same quality as the British within the EU27"

Hahahha.

Lets take a bet.

BorisBogtrotter - "What will actually happen is that current capital stock will be run down and newer models won't be built here, eventually the car industry will be leaving in hard brexit."

There are currently car plants (and supply chains) wholly located outside the EU supplying cars for the EU market.

"There are existing plants with staff in the EU27, some that are currently under capacity. Your argument is that firms won't move in order to avoid costs, but will remain despite incurring larger costs."

There are existing plants in Japan that have spare capacity. Production will move, and is moving (models currently made in Canada and Mexico for instance) back to Japan and not to the EU. The new EU-Japan trade deal, removing tariffs makes this pull even stronger.

BorisBogtrotter - "Labour costs in the car industry do not make up a large proportion of total costs."

Which supports the premise that the Japanese plants will stay in the UK. Relatively little can be saved by moving to take advantage of lower wage costs in say Eastern Europe.

The large capital costs are already sunk into the UK plants. The actualities of shutting down a plant in the UK and opening elsewhere in the EU involve building an entirely new plant and training thousands, even tens of thousands of workers, paying redundancy for thousands of UK workers, writing off / trying to flog the current factory in the UK to recoup some cash.

It really is an enormous undertaking to relocate. This is why it won't happen.

In time it could. Decisions on where to build new models could be made in the EU's favour but this is still not so likely. A small (and maybe non-existent increase in costs is not going to wipe out the current competitive advantage of the UK.

Remember, the UK is one of the largest markets for cars in Europe on top of being the most efficient producers of cars.

Right, I've got too much work to do now. I have no more time for this bollocks.

We will have to wait and see who is right. Goodbye Boris. Try not to worry yourself sick.

{The fact that most people don't give a toss about practical economics is why they should not go round spouting fear-mongering bollocks such as the above. Claiming, without any grounds whatsoever, that factories will relocate, medicines won't be available is utterly irresponsible fear-mongering. }
Since from Theresa May downwards NO ONE knows what will actually happen, but fact the government is calling in the army to quell rioting/protect food storage/ distribute essential medicines it is fair to speculate that things could be more than a little tense.

{Are there laws that will suddenly make it illegal for the company to sell to UK customers?}
In a way, yes. If/when and depending on whatever deal is done, unless medical certifications are reorganised (new certification in the UK), it would be illegal for even existing drugs to be administered.
While you may buy your supply of bonkomatic or whatever online it would not be licensed so taking it and becoming ill from it would leave you with no legal redress.

{"There clearly isn't a huge pool of workers of the same quality as the British within the EU27"}
Oh dear, obviously not got the news that JLR's new plant is being built in Slovakia (?) and not Solihull.

"There are currently car plants (and supply chains) wholly located outside the EU supplying cars for the EU market."

There are, but it doesn't mean that ones based in the UK will relocate there.

The Japan trade deal does make it less likely that new plants will be built in the EU, but of course, it doesn't mean that the ones currently there, that make different models to those in Japan ( as they do) will be moving, it may mean greater availability of different models across the whole market.

However, not being in the customs union, and delays in JIT mean that tariffs are applicable to all automotive products crossing borders, as well as delays. This increases costs, and lowers productivity.

On the whole as the majority of products from the UK factories are made for the EU market, the likelihood is that relocation to other factories ( whether it be Japan or EU) is likely.

As the car makers have said anyway. the Vauxhall plant in Liverpool is certain to close now its owned by PSA. Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi will leave as there are major bases in the EU. Toyota have a partnership with PSA too and were warning that hard brexit would meaning halting production in the UK.

Honda are likely to stay as the civic is being produced for the global market here.

JLR ? Who knows.

Bentley, Aston etc are minor producers and so it doesn't matter as much ( but one is owned by VW and the otherpart owned by Mercedes and uses their engines).

If we were offered the choice of three outcomes it would not be difficult.

Remain - as we are now

Theresa's deal - in order to keep frictionless trade we obey EU rules but have no say. Worse than we are now.

No deal - catastrophe, or as described by the President of the NFU "armageddon"

There is only one good choice - REMAIN

REMAIN

NO DEAL.

I think there is one thing that all Remainers and Leave voters can agree on and that is the fact that Treason May's 'Withdrawal Agreement' is the worst deal in the history of deals. It's actually worse than that.

It genuinely is a complete surrender of sovereignty to a foreign power. It is going to undo nearly 1000 years of freedoms enjoyed since Magna Carta. I do not use this word lightly but this 'deal' is treason. Real, actual treason.
It would put the UK in a situation where it is partitioned, with the EU/Ireland effectively governing Northern Ireland. Many Remainers on here have spoken about Brexit potentially causing a return to the Troubles in NI. This deal will guarantee it. The Loyalist terrorist groups will re-emerge if this deal goes through.
If this deal goes through the UK will be a vassal state/colony of the EU.
Both remaining in the EU and leaving with no deal are better than this so-called 'deal'.

I think there is one thing that all Remainers and Leave voters can agree on and that is the fact that Treason May's 'Withdrawal Agreement' is the worst deal in the history of deals. It's actually worse than that.

Well, congratulations for voting for that then. Please don't say you didn't, because if you're daft enough to put a cross next to a totally unknown quantity, you can't complain. If you looked at the people running the leave campaign and thought 'I'll vote for what they're advocating', you can't complain. If you voted for something that had no plan, somehow imagining it would align with whatever your version of leaving the EU was in your head, you can't complain.

You won. Get over it.

It genuinely is a complete surrender of sovereignty to a foreign power. It is going to undo nearly 1000 years of freedoms enjoyed since Magna Carta. I do not use this word lightly but this 'deal' is treason. Real, actual treason.
Project fear.
It would put the UK in a situation where it is partitioned, with the EU/Ireland effectively governing Northern Ireland. Many Remainers on here have spoken about Brexit potentially causing a return to the Troubles in NI. This deal will guarantee it. The Loyalist terrorist groups will re-emerge if this deal goes through.
Project fear.

1000 years of freedoms
Ireland effectively governing Northern Ireland

Is that you Boris?

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-on-brexit-and-making-our-own-laws-on-bbc-news-1-5778244