Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

peregrina there would be millions hit as "collateral damage" in a No Deal
and the true Beleavers would blame the EU, not the ERG

However, the Tories as a whole now seem worried about electoral consequences, according to those leaks on Cabinet briefings recently

The Tories might plan to push the blame onto the DUP,
but I'm not sure if voters understand enough about the negotiations to buy that

Anyway, under fptp it only takes a couple million former Tory voters to decide they'll never vote for them again, for them to be reduced to a rump for several GEs

People’s Vote Morning Briefing: www.peoples-vote.uk/peoples_vote_briefing

However, the Tories as a whole now seem worried about electoral consequences, according to those leaks on Cabinet briefings recently

Which is the only thing which will make them change their minds.

BCF
Having been (far too) involved with your and RTB's writings it is obvious that JRM's 'idea' is about as sparkling as Raab's geographical knowledge, and can only be seen as deliberate as it is impossible to believe he is truly that stupid, especially given the howls when he proposed reintroduction of a border across NI a few months back.
What I really don't understand its the seemingly deliberate 'stupidity' being displayed by so many. The civil servants 'behind' all these cabinet posts are (presumably) not a bunch of teenagers from a deprived estate school but pretty seasoned professionals who must be truly beyond despair at the complete bollocks that their 'bosses' are coming out with.

Any chance of a linky please Bellini?

No Deal option on the people's vote would be a total and utter disaster. It needs to be the deal on the table . what deal or status quo. Stay in the EU.

badkitten I’ve honestly had sleepless nights thinking about the prospect of people voting No Deal. I think there’s a good chance they would, especially when subjected to the inevitable spin from Brexiteers about the bullying EU. A three way vote as Greening is proposing between deal, Remain or No Deal is a really scarey propect as votes would be split - I wonder whether Remain or No Deal would suffer the most in the split?

All academic really as we keep being told there won’t be another vote.

I wish May would just have a moment of revelation and call the whole thing off. I know there’s a strong feeling from many on this thread that the U.K. needs to leave for the sake of the EU and to learn some hard lessons. I see the point that’s being made and largely agree with my objective, history student’s hat on, but on a personal level nothing could make me happier now than to hear it had been called off.

I know there’s a strong feeling from many on this thread that the U.K. needs to leave for the sake of the EU and to learn some hard lessons.

This is so dangerous though. The people who started both World Wars could not have envisaged the scale of death and destruction that they unleashed.

But on other threads we still have people going on about an EU Army - scared of paying for something which won't happen any time soon, while shutting their eyes to what is now happening all around them.

I see the BBC is reporting that Ministers knew back in July how shit Chequers was ....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46175150

Multiple cabinet ministers expressed significant doubts about the prime minister's preferred Brexit plan from the start, the BBC has learned.

Parts of Theresa May's plan were described as "worrying", "disappointing" and "concerning" by members of her top team back in July.

(contd)

Not really sure why this is "news" to the BBC, since 80% of posters on this thread reached the same conclusion in July.

Unfortunately ALL possible options are dangerous.
The UK gov has acted so horrendously badly for the last 2 1/2 years with a barrage of 'stupidity' that almost looks designed to piss the EU off, who have this far smiled through firmly clenched teeth.
Leaving, with no or any deal WILL devalue the UK further so make those who wanted to remain angry.
Remaining will 'anger' many 'leavers' although the economic effects will be bad, there will be many who will blame the EU and they still have the deluded idea of Empire and unbounded wealth, because the gov and newspapers will continue to blame the EU and anybody except the real culprits.
There is only so much you can do if your friend decides to jump off the high diving board without checking there is any water below, or if there is, how deep.

{Ministers knew back in July how shit Chequers was}
The important thing is why the hell did they not shout about it loudly at the time, rather than seemingly sitting on their hands.
Either they were in on the deceit or were they subject to NDA's. As 'grown ups' it can only be one or the other.

Peregrina Yes, another thing that’s kept me awake at night, especially, with all the reflections lately on WWI and how we drifted into that. To so many it was all going to be a bit of an adventure and we’ll all be home by Christmas. There are frightening parallels.

I do understand though that some Westminstenders feel that we’ve now caused so much unnecessary bad feeling and expense to the other EU members that we now need to leave, especially having always been such a thorn in the EU’s side. I can also see if we just called the whole thing off (assuming g this would be allowed) it will result in a very nasty and frightening backlash from Brexiteers/Leavers. However, I think this will happen anyway - as we’ve all said so many times, all the ills of Brexit will be blamed on the EU. I think a drift to the right is now pretty much inevitable if we leave or stay. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. If we have to be damned either way I’d rather we were damned but still have access to vital medicines.

One thing I don’t think should happen, that I’ve seen suggested a number of times, is that we stay with the idea that we’ll revisit the idea of leaving in a decade’s time. I don’t see how we could possibly expect the rest of the EU to allow to stay with the prospect of being put through all this shit again a few years down the line.

BigChoc obviously I agree that “no deal” is the default and will happen if nothing else is done.

However, I’m not sure you’re right to say that there is nothing the HoC can do except bring a vote of no confidence. The HoC decides its own procedures, and there are several things it can do, although they are difficult and require majorities. See this thread on Twitter for instance: twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1061645478583001088

This is why the A50 case before the ECJ is so important, it gives Parliament more options (the claimants are MPs).

Fortunately or unfortunately I share an office with constitutional lawyers, and they are talking of nothing else at the moment.

WTF has happened to the BBC. Quick, someone contact them to let them know they've gone rogue !!!!!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46169131

Firms seeking staff are being hit by labour shortages, with a "reversal" in the number of migrants in UK workplaces, says HR body the CIPD.

As Brexit approaches, the CIPD says the shortage of both EU and non-EU migrants reflects a falling interest in the UK as a destination for migrant workers.

And it said research among over 1,000 employers suggested that vacancies are becoming harder to fill.

The squeeze is leading employers to increase pay rates, said the CIPD.

(contd)

I always view "recruitment problem" stories with a tonne (sorry, ton) of salt, since a good proportion of them actually translate to "we can't seem to hire someone with 20 years experience who is willing to pay us for the privilege of working"

The important thing is why the hell did they not shout about it loudly at the time, rather than seemingly sitting on their hands.

The only credible explanation is some version of the bystander effect.

Except these dullards aren't "bystanders" they are - or are supposed to be - leaders.

You know something ? If the UK can get into this level of shit with politicians at the helm, it's hard to suggest we may have been better off with no leaders at all.

I got slated a while back for suggesting that in order to take a seat, a candidate needs to win a majority of all available votes (i.e. >50% of the possible votes). If no candidate did, that seat didn't return an MP. Cue loads of wailing about how people would be unrepresented.

Well, guess what. People are unrepresented now. Only they are paying a fucking fortune for the privilege.

(If you remove - or turn off - traffic lights at junctions, generally there are fewer accidents and traffic flows faster .....)

I think, and sincerely hope, that the issue of vital medicines would get 'emergency' treatment. Any shortages would be a 'blip' although distribution might encounter other bumps along the way. The EU is not trying to punish the UK, at least not the majority of 'ordinary' folk so I would see a little 'rule bending' to happen in that scenario. EU manufacturers will not be refusing to sell products that are currently made but the mechanism for getting it from the factory to those in need will be tested. One thing that the anti Brexit march helped show the rest of Europe that leaving is not a unanimous choice and there will have been a lot of 'heads' looking at the whole mess from the beginning. I would be certain that the security forces across Europe will have pertinent info about 'meddling' by countries outside Europe.

One thing I don’t think should happen, that I’ve seen suggested a number of times, is that we stay with the idea that we’ll revisit the idea of leaving in a decade’s time.

It's so difficult because politicians and duplicity seem to have become synonymous.We need honest principled statesmanship...

Yet for the Leave voters isn't the most palatable message -look the time may come to relinquish EU membership, but that time is not now. We are all too divided. To make such a decision with a country so split and a govt lacking a majority means now is not the right time.Let's stay and try proactively leading from the front and see what happens. We can also try for the first time implementing a fair immigration system with follow ups to check if people have jobs/ funds.

Then to the EU and remainers the message needs to be -of course we want to stay we've really learnt our lesson, we are so sorry.

[Rant warning...

I'll never get over the illogical absurdity. We had what was effectively a nationwide advice to the govt to investigate the possibility of relinquishing EU membership. It was an instruction based in a complete vacuum - no trade proposals , no NI plans- nothing. It was at a time when there'd been numerous terrorist attacks so the populace was in hunkering down mode. Plus at the very least influenced by false promises plus some Russian and US money thrown in to promote chaos for their own agendas.

We've now spent two years investigating the options at great angst and wasted billions buzzing around in circles. The options are all indescribably worse than what we had before. It's unbelievably flawed. Just beyond ]

On a separate note IAG, owner of British Airways ( currently based in the UK) seems set to re structure everything so it can be a Spanish company after Brexit. Suppose that means more profit ( if any) and jobs trickling our too.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-iag/ba-owner-iag-prepares-to-meet-eu-ownership-rules-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit-el-pais-idUKKCN1NF0FI

DG I think the concern the Cabinet previously had about Chequers was only about their red lines;
the Brexiters wanted to keep them all, while the others were worried about ERG fury and a Tory civil war.

It seems that the Cabinet basically shut their eyes & ears to the consequences for the country - trade, economy, meds, food, transport etc - until this year;

Gove seems to have realise - and is reportedly "terrified" - about food supplies, while Raab and several others only seem to have realised now

Judging by their indifference to the suffering from UC and from NHS waiting times, most don't understand or give a shit about the people who aren't millionaires like them,
but the warnings about the Tory party being toxic for a generation has hit home.

They may not even mind much if Corbyn wins a narrow GE victory, maybe even in coalition with the SNP and then takes the can for the aftermath of Brexit.
The perfect patsy.

As Brexit approaches, the CIPD says the shortage of both EU and non-EU migrants reflects a falling interest in the UK as a destination for migrant workers.

The important thing for me is the lack of interest for the U.K. for non EU migrants too.

It seems that the U.K. is not afterall the place where EVERYONE wants to go.
One more dream that goes int shatter then.

MissMoon We need to be realistic here, as red has been posting

That thread you linked just seems to be saying that
Brexit can be stopped by the government, not by the opposition - unless they persuade enough Tories to abstain or vote with them

MPs have very limited opportunities to propose their own bills AND those bills will fail unless they can get a majority in the HoC.
Currently, there is very little support / courage among any party to revoke - this may change if the economy goes into meltdown in Jan / Feb

The case over unilateral A50 Revocation starts in the ECJ on 27 Nov
Until there is a ruling on that, we don't know if all 27 members and the EP have to agree

DG STV would be a better system than fptp
if it's good enough for Scottish elections ...

I should have added after saying maybe some in the Cabinet wouldn't mind too much if Corbyn won the next GE and could be scapegoated for the clusterfuck afterwards

However, they are now very alarmed that this wouldn't be just a single GE, but for a generation

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-may-abandon-emergency-cabinet-meeting-opposition-eu-negotiations-a8628926.html

Theresa Mayy^ has been forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinett^ meeting to approve a Brexitt^ deal,^ after fresh opposition at home and abroad plunged her timetable into turmoil.^

The prime minister shelved the meeting, pencilled in for Monday, slamming on the brakes after fierce resistance in her cabinet and in Brussels threatened to derail the path to an agreement.

BCF
I am not sure I 'buy' all your line. You, among others on MN have rummaged around and pulled important information out of the internet, papers, wherever and been stating the problems that were ahead and are now being exposed.
MPs and certainly the cabinet have staff to do the trawling around, reading up on things and who usually have both experience and the means to investigate things to a deeper level than most on MN. It is for this reason that I see this whole thing as a choreographed 'game'.
The fact that the poisonings 'stopped' is probably not that the intelligence services suddenly got a whole lot smarter, but more likely that having sown the seeds of terror and the relative simplicity which is needed to carry it out, the opaque 'orchestrators' can sit back.
A couple of tickets to Salisbury and a cheap hotel are less expensive than filling a tank with diesel!

However, they are now very alarmed that this wouldn't be just a single GE, but for a generation

Oh dear, how sad. This does mean that I might never see a Tory Government again, or not until I am too doolally to notice.

Businesses call for state bailouts if UK crashes out of EU

I don't know if there is enough money to bail out all those businesses

• very different to bailing out one bank, RBS

I expect farmers to get help, but I'm not sure about even small businesses

Corbyn would try - probably nationalsie a few - but state bailouts are totally against the hard right currently dominant in the Tory party

https://www.politico.eu/article/business-will-need-state-bail-outs-in-no-deal-brexit/

If the U.K. does fall over the Brexit cliff edge, ministers must leverage the government’s “financial muscle … in rather the way they did for the banks during the [2008] crash,”
said Ian Wright, director general of the Food and Drink Federation, which represents 7,000 firms.

“If the government was to say no [to that] now there would be a very big question from British industry:

‘You were prepared to fund the banks who brought the crisis on themselves … but you’re not prepared to support British business which is completely innocent of any fault in the current circumstances?’”

“Very few businesses in the U.K. asked for this to happen,” he added.
“This is a crisis entirely created by politicians.”