Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

red I agree about NoDeal being likely,
because it is what automatically happens if A50 runs out without a WA,
the Cabinet still can't agree on what to do
... and Raab has revealed the shameful, shocking ignorance they have

I have never been in favour of a 2nd ref and now there is no time.
I do think the marches are valuable though, to show the strength of - let's be blunt - Remain feeling
which might just persuade May or her successor at the last moment to U-turn and ask for either Norway+ or to revoke A50

Blair made a very high risk recommendation to vote down any deal - as it looks a crap deal - to achieve either a Revoke or a quick Rejoin after Brexit.
He has taken risks before which ended very badly
Is this another such ?

I'd say the risk of a no deal atm is around 95%.

Yes, the govt can repeal ATAD and the "Settlement" rights for E27 citizens

A Parliament can always repeal laws,
but the Henry VII powers, together with the Civil Contingencies Act, give this govt powers to act on its own that are unprecedented in peacetime.

And we've seen how ignorant, venal and ruthless trhey are - the worst people we could choose to have such powers

There is no viable deal to be voted by parliament anyway?. Isn't May presenting one which has already been rejected by EU? We're in 'no deal' already effectively.

I just do not believe that any Government would turn us into some sort of Yugoslavian nightmare state, which i agree is what a no-deal could do.

For many decades Yugoslavia was deemed to be a success - whether that was because of Tito's will, it was nevertheless stable. Its government didn't deliberately turn it into a nightmare state.

Argentina in the early 20th century was the 7th wealthiest country in tbd world. Its government didn't deliberately sabotage its economy so that it went through major periods of instability and is now something like (despite a degree of recovery) 20th in the world.

It is hubris to assume that the UK - and its government - is eternally immune from the incompetence and/or greed that can lead to damaging unintended consequences.

How the might are fallen - or in a warning to the UK, change the tense to state How the mighty can fall

Agree Big Choc.

The ONLY purpose the march served was as a way to provide spin for a government uturn on policy.

Nothing more. Nothing less.

The march was not pointless, but its purpose was never what was stated. That's why I supported the march.

If you don't understand that you are being taken for a fool, just as leavers were before.

Sorry to be so blunt to some of you, but I think it needs spelling out like that at this point.

We CAN NOT proceed further on beliefs or ideals.

Pragmatism demands we face up to the reality of the mess and what position in the alloted time we have left we are at.

Ultimately I have a fuck off plan, which DH can activate. Do you?

Can you afford to make the gamble that your belief is right?

afaik, May will present the draft WA - if the negotiators agree on one - only after the E27 heads of govt have approved it.
I posted how the E27 ambassadors were demanding a full week to examine any draft before approval

This would take us into December, which is tight - the EU approval process needs 3 months, for the EP and the 27 members

However, all this is academic if the 2 sides can't agree a WA, because then it is just NoDeal, without the HoC being able to do anything

^^woman11017

She can't present a deal that has already been rejected by the EU can she? That's ludicrous.

red The problem is that those of us who escaped some time ago, or have a feasible escape plan now, are in a small minority
65 million people are going to be living through this clusterfuck
(Ok, maybe 62 million if the E27 and the mobile mc flee)

Many people can't even prep for more than a few days
Those who rely on meds may not be able to stockpile for long enough

What a bloody disaster the country is facing .. and sleep-walking into

Some of us, red are perfectly aware of what is to come. We have no choice. This sort of situation is a bit of a wake up call on how vulnerable we all really are, particularly women and children.

Not proceeding on beliefs and ideals

I'd have to think about that one.

That's ludicrous
Not really. Just following through on the original plan of the funders I presume.

jasjas , I agree the blame for this lies at Cameron's door. Along with the ERG agitators and their ilk. Sponsored by whoever.

However, in a world where people were able to access the internet to see the propaganda, they were also able to access the internet to see how things actually worked.

Also, when lies had been exposed (like eventually DP junked the Farage line about just slapping tariffs on only EU imports, when not having any special agreements), to believe them the next time they are uttered is a choice.

So, I'll save my sympathy for people who did not choose to be screwed. Not someone whinging about something they actively let loose. The information was out there.

As a relative outsider looking in, I think Blair is right. You have got a limited amount of time to prepare for no-deal and to let the U.K. public know of all the probable ramifications from Brexit. You need to scare the hell out of the U.K. public ( at least those who lean towards leave ) by being honest about what is coming unless the U.K changes course in a radical way.

People don't like to admit that they were wrong, you need a certain amount of time for some rather nasty projections to sink in. The worst possible thing is to say have another referendum and leave wins by a slim margin and now you have weeks rather than months to prepare for this horrendous upheaval.

There is an interesting article on zdnet called " London's tech startups are booming, but their biggest challenge is just around the corner ". As I understand it, the U.K. is rather top-heavy in the financial and high-tech sectors.

I can't help but notice but the blue-collar, working-class sectors of the U.K. economy such as agricultural, manufacturing, transportation, and shipping will be the first and most severely impacted by Brexit.

This might explain the unfortunate ignorance of certain figures who might be a lot more interested in the razzle-dazzle aspects of finance and high-tech than the more mundane aspects of the blue-collar sectors.

The article states the advantages that London has and how the financial / hi-tech sector attracts and needs to attract the best and brightest from all over the world to be a world-class player.

I don't see how you are going to keep them when food rationing and scarcity become the norm as well as a lack of other basic necessities such as shirts, pants, shoes, etc.

Even a projection of such things is going to make Frankfurt, Paris, etc a lot more enticing and that alone could torpedo the U.K.'s high-tech sectors.

All sectors of an economy are important and are inter-dependent.

There was a chap on QT whose business was managed online. He had a plan in place to leave the UK in 24 hours.

Could some of those tech and finance companies have a similar plan in place? Hoping not to have to put it into action, but are ready nevertheless.

I just do not believe that any Government would turn us into some sort of Yugoslavian nightmare state, which i agree is what a no-deal could do.

On this particular day, the one which commemorates the end of WW1, I think it's worth saying that Governments blunder into things which then become unstoppable. Who in 1914 thought of having a War which over a period of 4 years would slaughter so many young men in France, UK and Germany? No one - it was all going to be a skirmish which would be over by Christmas.

By the same token, most of May and her Government have blundered into leaving egged on by the ERG who have vested interests in Leaving and hope to ride out the storm. Thing of the hubris of the 2016 Tory Conference - citizens of nowhere - compiling registers of foreign workers, and so on. The Tory faithful lapped it up so then May rushed to invoke A50 without a plan. And then gradually, she began to realise that it really wasn't quite as easy as she thought; that she was as woefully unprepared for current conditions as those 1914 Generals had been for their war.

But now, barring some sort of miracle, I think Brexit is unstoppable.
If people want to rejoin in a few years time - will we hear about 'the will of the people' or will politicians be strangely silent?

I sae on my FB feed yesterday a previously noisy Leave supporter with a picture of Auschwitz and some meme about how tyranny starts when we are divided as a people.
All I could think was "well, you shouldn't have voted to divide us then, you silly cow".
I hate that we have come to this. I hate that I am thinking about shelf stable food to store for meals. About where I should hide a little stash of cash. About whether the school can feed my dd at lunchtime. About how extreme things could get About whether this is the last Christmas we'll have that's carefree (ish).
And I'm supposed to "pull together " with the people who are directly responsible for it.

I wondered that Mrsr8 - they are very quiet, just when they are on the point of getting what they wanted.

Brexit: No deal threat is a 'political hoax' says Starmer
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46168194

Voting against the deal would mean leaving the EU without any agreement at all, the government has warned.
But Sir Keir said the prime minister's attempts to "threaten rather than persuade" would not work and Labour is prepared to reject the government's plans.
"Labour will stick to its guns. Supporting a bad deal is not in the national interest," he said.

Followed by

Instead, he said that MPs would be able to table motions, press amendments and trigger a no-confidence vote in order to prevent the UK leaving without a deal.
Sir Keir said: "I remain as convinced as ever that the consequences of no deal would be so severe that it cannot be allowed to happen."

Can someone explain to him that those two things are NOT compatible?
That we passed months ago the point where the parties couod weight in and put amendments etc forwards?
That basically there is no time so it is really either that agreement or nothing (assuming that an agreement can be found!!)

Honestly we are at no deal or remain being the only real viable alternatives.
I agree with that.

I also think that either solution will bring a huge crisis.
No Deal because of all the economic downturn, shortages, struggles of the NHS etc etc AND the Remainers resentment
Staying because of the Leavers resentment.

Either way BITH the Conservative And the Labour Party are responsible for this mess.
Not least because neither of them have been able to see pass their own little power grab to see the importance of triggering Art50 and the real consequences of the vote.
And because they have put party politics, national politics etc... way ahead of the Country safety.

bellini yes for me that’s one of the worst thing. The idea that leavers think half of the population should just support them even though their ideals are opposite to theirs.
It wouod be like asking a vegetarian to eat meat at every meal because the meat eaters had voted for meat to become compulsory.

Butbtyats also what ‘the will of the people’ and branding Remainers ‘traitors’ has done. Add the ‘keep going attitude’ And that’s what you get.

I’m stock piling too. Lots of bits and pieces atm and I need to be more organised and check what I actually have.
At least H is on board for that.

No plan for me to leave just now. I still have the hope that it will sort of stabilise itself a bit after March. If not, Ill take the dcs with me and move to the EU. It will be a lot like people fleeing war torn Yugoslavia or Germany though.
That’s the issue though. As an EU citizen who has a british husband and dcs who have ever only known Britain as their country, I feel stuck. If the dcs had been slightly younger, I wouod have moved but this is a hard period for them. I think plenty of eu citizens are stuck too for similar reasons.

The need to keep the "highflyers" is what makes me think there won't be rationing ... for them.
All luxuries, as well as food and meds will be on the open market for those who can pay

It is only the bottom 40 / 60 / 80 % who will be rationed - again by the market, with maybe topups for those on say child credit, other benefits, to try to avoid riots.

This is because I really don't believe any govt, especially this shower, could implement a functioning rationing system in the time available.

WW2 had a longer leadtime for rationing and there were sufficient public servants that a paper-based rationing system could be started and administered.

Now, it would have to be IT-based and we can imagine the chaos of that emergency scheme, brought in with so little notice
JDD (civil servant on RNorth's blog) claimed that a rationing system was the first contingency they worked on, 2 years ago, but he also didn't seem to think it would work.

Oh have you seen this Thread?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/site_stuff/3417803-Babylon-GP-at-hand-all-thoughts-welcome?msgid=82486892#82486892

Our government has already sold the NHS then.
Through the backdoor and wo saying a word about it.
And as usually, is making us getting used to a private company instead of the NHS before landing the ‘bomb’ that actually you now have to pay unless you are a child, receiving certain benefit etc...

SKY online reporting this morning that the EU has or is rejecting Cox's plan on the backstop because it is 'time limited' and thus NOT a backstop.
The EU were caught off balance by a bit of sloppy drafting a while ago. Seeing the balls up the UK is making, and the way it is STILL wheedling and trying to break promises it made I doubt it will let it happen again.
I feel sorry for your keyboard RTB the frustration you (and most of us on here) feel is coming out loudly.
Accepting the UK is 'Out' on 29March, standing in the street in it's pants, there has been no suggestion about what happens later that day or any days after. The workers of any JIT manufacturing will be at home (already announced in some cases). It will be the start of the period when more younger, semi skilled MEN will be discovering they have lost their jobs (as reported recently).
As woman will be happy to endorse, it is likely that young men will turn to devious means and violence when they lose their jobs.

I agree that the current Government and Opposition between them are stupid and incompetent enough to catapult us into a no deal situation. As Peregrina said, this country has been tipped into war in a similar way before. But for this sort of crisis to happen, the population must in some way accept its inevitability. This is why the march mattered and why calls for a People’s Vote still matter, because they change the discourse and people’s perception, and increase pressure against a no deal outcome by focusing on the disaster such an outcome would cause.
What we need now is for those businesses, like the road hauliers, who signed up to the non-disclosures to break confidence and spell out what they know. What exactly could happen to them if they say it’s more in the national interest to disclose than to keep secret?