People’s Vote Delusion

[PersonaNonGarter]

It isn’t going to happen. For the following reasons:

1. May Government won’t vote for a second referendum
2. No new post-May Tory Government will vote for a second referendum
3. Jeremy Corbyn and those in the Labour Party front benches won’t vote for a second referendum
4. There is no agreement about what the referendum would ask.
5. There is no plausible timetable for a referendum.

Why would Corbyn want a second referendum? He is a Leaver wanting to win in Leave seats. And he wants to implement his domestic agenda, not waste any further time on Brexit votes. The current situation SUITS him.

...also, the decision to leave is irreversible, unlike deciding to stay.

Its entirely logical to proceed with caution, just as the UK did with the Euro and Ever Closer Union.

As the "benefits" leaving are becoming clearer, the Government/Parliament should either reconsider or regrettably another referendum.

If we do leave with no deal, what would Leavers say to the widow of the first customs officer murdered in NI or the children of a Diabetic killed because they couldn't get Insulin or me if my niece dies because of this?
Because Leavers are all responsible, you ve been told by the Government but still want brexit.

Liking "Farage of Norway"
What the Brexit withdrawal agreement will be is currently being negotiated between the UK government and the EU.

My own view, and I've said this before though maybe not on this thread is that the government will have to chose between the available options permitted by the EU - i.e. "more like Norway" or "more like Canada."

May still leads the largest party, though i agree with you that the 2017 GE was nothing short of disastrous for her personally. How much of that actually has to do with her vision of Brexit, I'm not so sure. I'd attribute more of the losses to an unexpectedly popular Corbyn Labour party and other factors like May's appalling handling of Grenfell Tower.

b) is enshrined in no law whatever. The expiry date of the mandate of the referendum isn't a matter of law. Delivery is, however, a matter of trust. Failure to deliver a Brexit would, i think be corrosive of the public trust, which so far as politics goes is at a pretty low ebb already.

The referendum result is not enshrined in law - that isn't even possible. One Parliament can not make a decision that binds the next.

The Leavers would say that the diabetic dying was because the EU bullied us. As for the widow of the customs officer, well, that's what the Irish are like, don't you know? (I am not a Leaver and these aren't my views.)

Growing up in the fifties I recall hearing a lot about the Mau Mau terrorism in Kenya and fighting in Aden. It's only as an adult that I realised that we had been presented with an extremely one sided picture.

I'd attribute more of the losses to an unexpectedly popular Corbyn Labour party and other factors like May's appalling handling of Grenfell Tower.

The GE was held on 8th June. The Grenfell tower fire was on 14th June, so you can't spin that as being a cause of May's loss of majority. Her own dismal performance on the stump did not help, as we saw when she visited my town.

Corbyn almost certainly benefited from the rules of purdah which come into force when a GE is called. The right wing press had to put a sock in it.

How is causing economic harm to the UK building trust in Politicians/Politics?
Everyone will just turn on the Gov and say why have you done this? and saying you told us too will not cut it.

This isn't Remain hysteria but our very own pro brexit government assessments

May still leads the largest party

Is that right? Anyway not for much longer, as the average age of a conservative party member (unbelievable but true) is 76.

Largest party in Government. Even without being shored up by the DUP she could have tried to govern with a minority administration.

In terms of paid up members, Labour leads, and then possibly the Lib Dems, and then the Tories. I don't know what the figures are for SNP and PC.

If we do leave with no deal, what would Leavers say to the widow of the first customs officer murdered in NI or the children of a Diabetic killed because they couldn't get Insulin or me if my niece dies because of this?
.
They'll say it's all the fault of the EU or Remainers or the Civil Service or whoever is today's villain of choice. Definitely not their fault though

In terms of paid up members, the SNP is now the 2nd largest party in the UK with 125,000 members (iirc), despite only putting up candidates within Scotland.

It's classic extremist technique to blame "wreckers". How long before Brexiteers start blaming "wreckers"?

The "stab in the back" narrative has been being lined up for months, hasn't it? The House of Lords, the Judiciary, "remainers," business, academics, economists, teachers...

@LouiseCollins
Thanks again for a measured response. It sounds like we'd both grudgingly accept an EEA/EFTA outcome (interim or permanent) from the negotiations but this is not where we're going and MPs need to hear leavers views on this whereas the shriller voices of no-deal seem to be loudest. Presume you'd agree it has to be with CU to resolve NI border issue.
Either democratic votes mean something, or they don’t.
Democratic votes do mean something (in many ways most important part of UK public life) but this is why the various distortions, untruths, lies etc. from both sides are so corrosive to trust. The last 2 years have proven many of the leave claims untenable; UK gov has failed to deliver the promised "cake & eat it" option (i.e. SM without 4 freedoms), nor £350m/week for NHS (or anything else for that matter), nor are Turkey any more likely to join than they were etc ... Instead we're looking at a self-inflicted recession in the event of no-deal or Canada and to leave now to EEA/EFTA+CU would be near pointless and would throw away our various opt-outs. While gov can reverse decision at will through revocation of A50, the most democratic way to confirm or reverse Brexit is to put it to a vote. On that basis and given that we're currently moving to a Withdrawal Agreement and transition status even worse then EEA/EFTA+CU would you consider supporting a 2nd ref?

Should add that an EEA/EFTA+CU option is pointless if it isn't combined with an explicit roadmap to decouple UK from EU (economically, legally etc ...) over much longer timelines (i.e. ~10 years). While I'd still disagree with it at least we wouldn't be facing an imminent recession etc ...

The 'Stab in the Back' theory is a classic tactic of extremists. The Nazis used it to blame politicians, financiers, the elite and then, with distressing consequences, the Jews.

It's always the elite and foreigners who are to blame. Historical parallels anyone?

Despite their noise, the Farage's, Rees-Mogg's and Johnson's by virtue of their Public School education at Eton and Dulwich College must class as part of the elite, however much Farage tries to pretend otherwise. Now the little private school which May once attended doesn't figure in that category.

Out of curiosity I looked up the background of a few leading Nazis, thinking that maybe they were all uneducated thugs. Not so - Goebels, Goering, Himmler and Hess were all university educated, at a time when I imagine relatively few went to University. Heydrich had a Commission in the Navy. So yes, the parallels are more uncanny than I thought.

@Motheroffourdragons

Agree no-deal with follow-on recession is a real concern - can't see it improving to an acceptable state for many years and mine and all UK DC will be deeply affected (expect it to be similar to early 80s recession - job losses shown on news daily - dispiriting). Don't have option to obtain EU passport and escape but, more importantly, don't want to - don't want to submit to a referendum decision brought about (at least partly) by disinformation, exaggerations and out-right lies. Don't want UK government to press ahead and damage all our lives despite it now being reasonably certain that few (if any) of the promises made in the referendum will materialise. Think both leavers and remainers will come to this realisation and if enough of us voice these concerns and agitate for it, we can change our path to something more sensible.

~700,000 was amazing but must grow to >1,000,000 and leavers must join us. Nobody voted for the future we're about to receive.

Motherof4dragons
Agree BINO is just about acceptable but remain is massively better even for leavers.

@Peregrina Hitler was manoeuvred into power by Hindenburg a member of the Junker class - an aristocratic. Also, another noblemen Von Papen and Schleicher a general were complicit in making Hitler chancellor.

Members of the elite manoeuvring public opinion by appearing to be on the side of the working man. Blaming corrupt politicians and financiers for the state of the country. Oh look let's blame the people who look different, in that case the Jews.

Referenda are banned in Germany now because of the way they were manipulated by the Nazis.

I dislike the cry of 'look what happened with the Nazis' but the historical parallels are scary.

Though there are similarities, the political structure of Europe is completely different....for the better, we ve also got no military might, political or financial clout, falling by the day!

Clever evil people will always find ways to make more money and/or power & this time round the population are being manipulated for financial & egotistical reasons.

Mousemouse/Peregrina

Don't think most leavers are Nazis ... think most leavers are worried about migration which shouldn't be simplistically equated with racism/facism. Don't experience it, but think it may be fear of change, fear of dilution or loss of identity, change in nature of community, fear of being overrun/ousted/usurped by another alien culture, etc ... Imagine travelling to London and seeing ~50% non-white faces on the tube may be alarming when accustomed to 98%+ white. Imagine hearing of towns where there are substantial, largely unintegrated (or partially integrated) foreign communities (e.g. Bradford). Think leavers fear such towns as the new normal, harbingers of UK's future. Don't think its accurate assessment but think remainers should try to be more understanding.

Most Germans weren't Nazis - that's the point. The elite like Hindenburg weren't Nazis - that's the point. Most Nazi voters weren't 'Jew haters' - that's the point.

Clever evil people will always find ways to make more money and/or power & this time round the population are being manipulated for financial & egotistical reasons

Exactly, and sometimes the real fears of people are used and manipulated and the master manipulators think they can control the situation but then it gets out of hand.

BJ and JRM thought they could manage Brexit and now it is slipping out of everyone's control and fuck knows where we are heading.