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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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woman11017 · 22/10/2018 15:30

At about 11 50- midday, Victoria line wasn't letting people off at Green Park, Peregrina so many people. I've never seen anything like it before.
It was such a nice day. I liked the picnics and party in the Mall after about 5pm, still 1000s of people there then.
Lots of people flew in especially for it. I liked the Veterans for EU too.

All good. Smile

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 16:01

From the comments on this pic ...

95% certain that she will go down in history as the prime minister who broke Britain

Like jumping across 95% of the Grand Canyon.

We've got 95% of the fuel needed to make it to the space station.

(contd on pages 2, 3,4,5-93,94 ....)

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 16:01

Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian
[longest sigh]

A parliamentary pal has got in touch to say that David Davis and his people are now actively on manoeuvres and getting in touch with the offices of MPs they think may back him. Hadn't heard that before so...guessing it's on?

There's also a rumour floating around today that Brady has all the letters he needs but that's been floating around on and off for ages so honestly, who knows.

Have now heard it from others - people in David Davis's office are calling MPs' offices to check that they've got the right mobile number for the MPs, which I'm sure is just a bit of standard admin and nothing else!

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 16:05

Francis Elliott @ elliotttimes
Looks like Steve Baker is going to call off the troops on the NI votes. Could only win by getting Labour to vote against programme motion. He judges that not worth the candle. Some respite for May.

Hmm

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 16:07

Norman Smith @bbcnormans
PMs extension to Brexit transition going down in flames in Commons. Not a single MP - of any party - has voiced any support for idea #mayday

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BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 16:09

(Sunday Times)
Frank Field & Nicky Morgan - interesting combination ! - intend to put down a motion
that if the govt fails to get a WA, Parliament should direct the govt to remain within the EEA

Very interesting that Field - a hard Lexiter - doesn't want a no deal Brexit

The EEA on its own is nowhere near as good as EEA / EFTA and SM, but it is a start and at least it isn't a crash-out no deal.

Both the govt and the EU state that leaving the EU means automatically leaving the EEA;
however, the govt never gave the formal 12 months notice for EEA before Brexit Day - often speculated as an emergency parachute

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 16:09

Good news at least that the NI motions have been dropped

TheElementsSong · 22/10/2018 16:10

Gosh these threads are moving fast recently! Thanks for the (not so) new thread, RTB!

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 16:11

Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarn
Someone else has got in touch! They said: "David Davis rang us as well, apparently the staff are “updating their records”. Bollocks, I reckon it’s on."

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borntobequiet · 22/10/2018 16:15

Peregrina my DD and I must have only been a few metres away from you at Green Park.
We got so uncomfortable with the crush we got over the wall back into the Park...

Mrsr8 · 22/10/2018 16:15

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Buteo · 22/10/2018 16:17

Simon Ferguson @srfergo

They had a vote and Theresa won. Surely they need to respect that result, get behind the winner and stop moaning otherwise it will undermine respect in democracy, or are they saying they’re alllowed to change their minds?

Grin
woman11017 · 22/10/2018 16:19

Anyone following Raab v Sarmer and Grieve?

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 16:25

The private HoL member's bill "The Act of Union Bill 2018" is currently going through the HoL.
Reportedly, it affects the Scotland / NI relationship in particular, but also rUK

It's very complicated background, but apparently very important to resolve potential anomolies from Brexit

  • the SNP are ready to make hay

https://indyscotnews.com/the-act-of-union-bill-2018/

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 16:27

Esther Webber @estwebber
Update: 71 of the 800-1,000 statutory instruments needed before Brexit have now been laid, according to @HansardSociety

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woman11017 · 22/10/2018 16:29

It's getting messy. Starmer, Grieve, now Cooper, Lee and Berger. Ooh.
twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1054388537687240705

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 16:34

@IanDunt
Chris Leslie: "Why doesn't the minister just confess he's been caught red-handed trying to stitch up parliament again."

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 16:40

@faisalislam
MPs pointing to idea that Raab has not confirmed existence of legal advice backing up the idea of a straight Deal vs no deal vote. “Parliament is sovereign ... they are just trying to use bluff and trickery”.

VillanellesBrownWig · 22/10/2018 16:43
Wine
woman11017 · 22/10/2018 16:43

@IanDunt
^Alison McGovern asks Raab for any example - any single one - where MPs have voted on amendments after the motion.
Raab: "Well I'm not sure^

It's pretty funny, and on the other hand it is so not.

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 16:52

@lisaocarroll
May statement:

  • extension of implementation period only if trade talks not complete
  • backstop is insurance policy nobody expects to use
  • but we could not be held to either backstop of UK-wide customs indefinitely
  • cannot let this be the barrier to what we all want to achieve
DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 17:12

- backstop is insurance policy nobody expects to use

Ah, the old Monty Python "never claim" policy ....

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 17:14

- cannot let this be the barrier to what we all want to achieve

Silly Cnut.

BestIsWest · 22/10/2018 17:25

Peregrina we must have been close to you as we also turned back opposite Downing Street at about 3:30.

We made the mistake of going back up Whitehall towards Trafalgar Square as we needed to go through St James’ park to get to our coach.

It was very hard going - people were still pouring down towards Parliament square - there was quite a crush.

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 17:34

Peoples Vote is getting numerous mentions and cheers today in HOC.
Worth the achey legs!