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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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bellinisurge · 22/10/2018 13:56

I doubt he'd impose nationwide martial law. I doubt he'd impose it in the gun-owning state of Texas. Not saying we won't have incidents at the border (assuming people even get there- Mexico is a big country to cross).

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 13:59

Petition to ask Labour to support the Peoples vote

www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-mp-i-will-vote-labour-if-the-next-manifesto-pledges-a-people-s-vote-with-the-option-to-remain

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 14:01

bellinisurge, he just needs an 'incident' followed by a heavy handed response and it could ALL kick off and give the excuse for martial law. The mid terms are a focal point for a lot of fear, worry and concern.

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bellinisurge · 22/10/2018 14:05

@RedToothBrush - I think the imposition of federal martial law in USA is out of the question. Too many legally armed civilians and a whole history against that sort of thing. Similarly in Texas itself. Less gun ownership in California. San Diego is a massive city on the border. I seriously doubt anything more than very local official response.

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 14:09

@RedToothBrush - I think the imposition of federal martial law in USA is out of the question. Too many legally armed civilians and a whole history against that sort of thing.

However, little by little ...

PineappleSunrise · 22/10/2018 14:10

I doubt he'd impose nationwide martial law. I doubt he'd impose it in the gun-owning state of Texas.

I agree with this. States' rights are a big, big thing in the US, especially among Trump's base. I can't see imposing martial law at a federal level chiming with them at all.

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 14:11

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Is 95% of the Withdrawal Agreement really done, as the PM tells the Commons today? Here’s what is still unsettled in a short Brexit thread (spoiler - quite a lot) 1/8
A. HMG still needs to persuade the EU to accept its UK-wide Irish backstop, and dump their own NI-only version. This also means HMG defining the full UK backstop 2/8
Only half of it - the Temporary Customs Arrangement - is out there so far. What happens to the EU's rules and regulations during the backstop period (ie the very tricky bit for the DUP) is still undeclared 3/8
B. Devising a mechanism for the UK-wide Irish backstop to come to an end. The PM must be able to claim it really is temporary and the UK can escape from it 4/8
C. Agreeing how any transition extension would work, including costs and what happens to the Common Fisheries Policy during it. Scots Tories have a red line need for it to end by April 2021 in time for Holyrood election campaign 5/8
The domestic complication: all of A, B, C need full agreement from the whole of the Cabinet to stop any further resignations. PM may well lose a few along the way 6/8
And of course, once all that’s done and the Withdrawal Agreement is sorted, the detail of the Future Framework must be filled in. Only the headline areas have been agreed for it so far 7/8
According to Dominic Raab, ALL of that must be done “towards the end of November”. That’s 5 short weeks, with a Budget in the middle of it all. The odds on that? 27-1 imho 8/8

Tom Newton Dunn joins Robert Peston in the corner marked 'People who think the WA is stuffed' along with a lots of us Westministenders and James Patrick.

Its going to start getting crowded over here soon.

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bellinisurge · 22/10/2018 14:13

No @DGRossetti . It really goes against his base. I spend a lot of time listening to his base in different parts of the US. They would expect Obama or Hillary to do something like that but not Trump. He knows which side his bread is buttered on. Imposing federal wide martial law is absolutely not something he would do.

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 14:18

From NYT in June
Trump fires Mueller, pardons himself and everyone else, sends his followers into the street, and, after the inevitable bloodshed, declares martial law
www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/opinion/trump-putin-summit-republicans.html

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 14:18

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/morrisons-data-leak-appeal_uk_5bcdcb9ce4b055bc9482dccb?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000001
Thousands Of Morrisons Staff To Get ‘Vast’ Payout In UK’s First Ever Data Leak Class Action

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 14:19

Trump WANTS his membership with guns to go to the street.

He's been winding them up about it for a long time.

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WorriedMutha · 22/10/2018 14:24

I wonder if the centrist Tories are calculating that if there's going to be a threat to May, get it out of the way now before the UKIP entrists like Arron Banks have been members for three months and thus get a shout in the successor vote.

bellinisurge · 22/10/2018 14:26

It's sad that Trump watching is light relief from the misery of Brexiting UK. I'm totally guilty of that. Only I have family and friends there so it's a bit more real for me there too.
If they did no more than ground planes after 9/11 in terms of federal wide action, they won't declare federal wide martial law after a small band of people make it up to the US border through Mexico.
Different scale to here.

Hazardswan · 22/10/2018 14:34

Thanks for sharing DG signed 👍

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 14:36

I wonder if it's a more imminent practical security situation WorriedMutha
wrt to the US martial law thingy. Martial law is the most tempting prize for the nutters here after a crash out.
Like crash out in January through automatic constitutional process, CIvil Contingencies Act is already good to go.

We've got even more recent previous on domestic martial law than the US.

Farridge and lennon have been bleating about guns on the street.
They've been winding up their base about it for a long time too.
Where did Mair get his gun?

Violence of the language aimed at May. Very very very concerning.

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 14:39

I wonder if the centrist Tories are calculating that if there's going to be a threat to May, get it out of the way now before the UKIP entrists like Arron Banks have been members for three months and thus get a shout in the successor vote.

It's an odd narrative that's bled out about David Davies being an "interim" leader ? Why do "we" need an interim leader. Why not a proper leader that's going to get the fucking job done ?

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 14:43

The other batshit idea that apparently new statesman has heard floating around is to remove May as PM but keep her as Tory Party Leader.

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Peregrina · 22/10/2018 14:44

I am back home from the march now, so just catching up.

The vituperation against the PM last week was off the charts compared with recent weeks. Worst since Grenfell.

The Tory Government and the the Local Authority deserved a complete drubbing for that, with the loss of life involved, so May as PM was rightly in the firing line. I agree that this weeks' vituperation is unacceptable. What did May expect though? She has appeased the extreme right wing all along, she was happy to talk about citizens of nowhere, she failed to issue a condemnation to the Daily Mail for calling the Judges traitors, so now they are coming for her, and of course, there is no one much left to speak for her.

.

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 15:01

How did you get on Peregrina did you get beyond Park Lane?

prettybird · 22/10/2018 15:12

New "management of expectations" by the ERG Eurosceptic MPs....

"Using existing techniques, existing processes and all within existing EU law, we can continue to trade pretty well seamlessly across all borders, without damaging the integrity of European Customs Union and Single Market"

(My underline)

"pretty well seamlessly" won't cut it in NI Hmm

Peregrina · 22/10/2018 15:16

We got half way down Whitehall, peeling off opposite Downing Street, a little before the Cenotaph. I am not sure of the exact time, well after 3. It might have been 3:30.

We arrived at Green Park at about 12:50 and hung around a bit. The march wasn't moving, but then maybe at 1:15 or so it did. We were waiting for the end of the march to tag on at the back, but standing still got a bit tiring, so at 2:10 we started walking, and still there were loads and loads of people behind us.

Green Park Underground was so jammed packed that they weren't letting people in, only letting us out. We could immediately tell that this march was much, much bigger than the last one we went on. At times there wasn't much space to move in.

DarlingNikita · 22/10/2018 15:19

Marking place, a bit late. Thanks Red.

I was on the march – well, I went straight to Parliament Square, so was there for all the speeches. Lovely upbeat atmosphere. Anna Soubry was IMMENSE –a gifted speaker. Delia Smith was underwhelming but I appreciate her turning up Grin The SNP representatives turned it into a bit too much of an opportunity to Tory-bash and rally for an independent Scotland, but did say some good things. All good really.

WorriedMutha · 22/10/2018 15:21

Wrt DD as interim leader, James Forsyth tweeted that it was seriously being mooted that he could replace her as interim PM and not as leader which would avoid the whole contest debacle. He goes on to say that it's astonishing that such a course is being shown the light of day. These are not normal times.

redsummershoes · 22/10/2018 15:27

wartime farm is again on tv. rationing and using every square meter for (inadequate) food production.

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 15:30

replace her as interim PM and not as leader

didn't Eden have a similar fudge ?