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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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Thread gallery
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thecatfromjapan · 22/10/2018 11:02

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 11:42

Arabella @Arabella_Law
It’s exactly the culture described so forensically in the Cox report that makes it difficult to trust that there will be change - and that means so many people took more of a risk than I did by signing this

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Another Commons staff member puts their head above the parapet.

Imagine doing this to your employer

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PineappleSunrise · 22/10/2018 11:46

Speaking of the letters to the Sun as a precursor to having a tweeting PM, we already have a tweeting Home Secretary:

"These sick Asian paedophiles are finally facing justice. I want to commend the bravery of the victims. For too long, they were ignored. Not on my watch. There will be no no-go areas"
twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1053336915850739714

It's pure Trumpism. Never mind the fact that the ethnic mix of the UK means that that vast majority of sexual crimes against children are carried out by white men, everyone must focus on THESE cases involving grooming by a specific minority and we'll make it sound credible by getting an Asian Home Sec to say it.

DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 11:46

Oh look !

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
PineappleSunrise · 22/10/2018 12:07

Yeah, it's also a no-brainer crime area for the Home Office to focus on. Who DOESN'T agree that sexual crimes against children are bad? Hmm

Mistigri · 22/10/2018 12:44

The people's march, sped up 20x. Impressive way of showing just how many people were there.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 12:53

Great news from Poland, woman 🙂
Let's hope we see the same in the EP elections in May and the GE too

MedicinalGin · 22/10/2018 13:04

Just listening to the headlines on world at one- so fucking furious with whoever it is talking about the ‘killzone’ and Theresa bringing ‘her own noose’.
All this bile being spouted to a woman in public life post Jo Cox. It’s vile.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 13:09

Disgraceful allusions to violence & murder by MPs who are supposed to be from a "respectable" political party, not the BNP

If the hard right Brexiters do this to their own PM, imagine what they would do to Remain MP and other opposition to Brexit.
Probably one reason that Remain MPs have kept their heads down for so long

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 13:10

Labour Whips @labourwhips
Two very interesting UQs from 330pm before the Two Major Statements:
1. @johnredwood to ask @PhilipHammondUK about cost of staying in EU CU and cost of Withdrawal agreement. 2. Dominic Grieve to ask @DominicRaab about evidence to @CommonsProcCom on fixing meaningful vote

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Govt’s day just got trickier

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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prettybird · 22/10/2018 13:10

The ERG (and their ilk) are a brilliant practical demonstration of why appeasement doesn't work.

It's just fed their belief in their power Sad

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 13:13

Patrick Smith @psmith
Nothing to see here, just a Tory MP asking the government to bring back the death penalty via @CrimeLineLaw

www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2018-10-11/178235

Only the other day I was reading about how a US State had just got rid of the death penalty because it was institutionally used in a discrimatory way...

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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prettybird · 22/10/2018 13:15

Got to give credit to the reply Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 13:18

From red's Faisal Islam link upthread:

"... there are some in government who simply do not want to believe that there will be any impact on anybody.

Suggesting that a business will have to adjust is, those people would claim, Project Fear, and by definition untrue, therefore no one needs to adjust, meaning no help for Brexit adjustment is required" 🤦🏻‍♀️

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 13:19

Sublimation - he may really have wanted the death penalty for Remainers !😏

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 13:19

Sublimation - he may really have wanted the death penalty for Remainers !😏

prettybird · 22/10/2018 13:22

Contrast that to Ireland and every other EU country which is providing advice and, in many cases, financial support to companies about how to plan for, and cope with, Brexit Hmm

Hazardswan · 22/10/2018 13:24

Yeah let's tackle violent crime by killing people, that'll work HmmConfused

Did someone mention yesterday that they thought the rest of Europe will move away politically from the far right now they're spectating our shit show?

Maybe people will give us trade deals as a thank you for willingly being a bad example, there's been stranger strategic.

Mrsr8 · 22/10/2018 13:25

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 22/10/2018 13:28

As we all know the closest predictor of EU voting intention was not age, wealth or north/south divide but views on the death penalty.

It's odd therefore isn't it. Why adopt the winning demographic's view on relinquishing EU membership- yet dismiss their view of capital punishment out of hand?

It's illogical. Or is that next?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 13:29

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
Not one of the ‘usual suspects’, a centrist Tory tells me they’re sending a letter of No Confidence to Brady. This is a shift. Before it was those deep in the Brexit fight who wanted to oust her. If those in ‘silent centre’ now ready to send letters, she really is in danger zone

You’ll remember when @GeorgeFreemanMP suggested recently that May must deliver Brexit (next March) & then hand over to next generation? There was a tacit agreement among many MPs now wasn’t the time to move against her. But has last week’s mess changed that calculation for some?

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DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 13:36

Not one of the ‘usual suspects’, a centrist Tory tells me they’re sending a letter of No Confidence to Brady. This is a shift. Before it was those deep in the Brexit fight who wanted to oust her. If those in ‘silent centre’ now ready to send letters, she really is in danger zone

I think Mays survival thus far has been down to the ability to convince the two opposing sides that would oust her that the other would benefit if she went. After all, no use pushing her if you think it'll benefit your enemy. Maybe this is a sign that he moderates (which is one trench) feel they are pulling clear of the Brexiteers ?

The few non-Brexit forum Brexit threads of late may have bolstered that opinion. Seems Brexiteers tactics aren't capable of withstanding an onslaught of people asking sensible questions.

If we take it's a 5-week minimum to an election, then we're edging close to a mid-December one now Hmm

Hazardswan · 22/10/2018 13:37

mrs yes!!

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 13:50

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Sadly, it looks like Mexico’s Police and Military are unable to stop the Caravan heading to the Southern Border of the United States. Criminals and unknown Middle Easterners are mixed in. I have alerted Border Patrol and Military that this is a National Emergy. Must change laws!

Martial Law around the time of the Nov mid terms anyone?

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 13:54

The result - and how Trump handles - the mid term elections might focus a few minds over here. And thats before that EU summit.

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