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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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prettybird · 22/10/2018 00:00

Yet Another example of Home Office Jobsworthness Angry

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/home-office-student-visa-block-amsterdam-university-glasgow-psychology-masters-a8594881.html?utmterm=Autofeed&utmmedium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1540154196

It's so indicative of Home Office/UK arrogance. That she couldn't possibly want to complete her Masters at the University of Amsterdam, that can't possibly be as good as a line under the radar in the hostile environment of the UK Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 00:14

Just seen my new fav march pic in the Guardian:

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Icantreachthepretzels · 22/10/2018 00:17

What is possible, right until the last moment - and maybe it would have to be then -
is the PM simply revoking A50, without a 2nd ref

I've always been of the opinion that - if it is still TM on brexit day - then this would be what happened. And I would prefer a straight revocation to a vote - people are idiots, why give them another chance to prove it?
The down side is it would really have to go down to the wire, as I can't see revocation happening as anything other than a mad panic at the end - and I'm not sure my nerves can take it. (This is why I think we should all go and stand outside Downing Street all day on the 29th March, really apply the pressure.) So if she offered a vote tomorrow I would jump at the chance, even just for the few weeks of hope that it would bring.

But if there is going to be a last minute cancellation - we need to be upping the ante more than ever right now. Make her realise that the remainers are not going away - they are legion - and they will blame her for any brexit fallout.

Thomasinaa · 22/10/2018 00:52

.

WorriedMutha · 22/10/2018 01:40

John Maugham has pointed out that it is rather bizarre that HMG in opposing the A50 revocation case are inexplicably seeking to limit their own powers. I have long thought that May would pull back in the end. So far she has shown no conviction, just posturing to whichever faction poses the most pressing risk at the time. In the end she will step away from the cliff by any means (if she's still in charge by then - big if)

lonelyplanetmum · 22/10/2018 06:43

Note: curious choice of newspaper to sell it to. The Sun has a really weird political demographic atm especially for Brexit.

I think the whole approach of letters to newspapers, little chats from the lecturn has just been accepted as normal quite easily. We are edging closer to a tweeting premier. When did all this letters to newspapers happen before? Only over wars really?

The Sun speaks to the widest reach I guess -it's the best-selling newspaper. It's total brand reach so that includes phones, tablets, print etc is 33.3m readers per month (including the Sun on Sunday- data from the Published Audience Measurement Company).

Some good news is did people post this ( yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/16/boris-johnsons-popularity-has-plummeted-among-cons/ )

At least Johnson and Mogg are on the wane. It's a bit like Love island or something. Who is likely to be the most viable challenger for the leader is pot luck. Popularity peaks seem to last for about six weeks before some one else is in favour. It's a bit like musical Chairs and down to who's still standing when the music stops.

lonelyplanetmum · 22/10/2018 07:22

Have we seen this one?

A pre- briefing of a statement this afternoon that

" 95% of the Brexit withdrawal agreement and its protocols are settled"

"The prime minister is expected to confirm she has resolved with the EU the future status of Gibraltar, developed a protocol around the UK’s military base in Cyprus and agreed a mechanism for resolving any future disputes with the EU."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/21/eu-withdrawal-deal-theresa-may-commons

bellinisurge · 22/10/2018 07:51

@lonelyplanetmum , just the little problem of NI to fix. If everything isn't sorted, nothing is sorted. Remember that little refrain?

lonelyplanetmum · 22/10/2018 07:55

Sorry a bit garbled but you get the gist...announcement expected this afternoon that Gibraltar is sorted also a body for dispute resolution? So our own arbitration system/court?

Just the backstop and border then..but that seems bigger than 5% to me.

lonelyplanetmum · 22/10/2018 07:58

Sorry Bellini we cross posted. I am sure the Irish border's tweets will be amusing if it has heard it is seen as 5% of the things to be sorted.

lonelyplanetmum · 22/10/2018 08:01

.

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 08:06

^The huge turnout at the march was important for an emergency late revoke decision to make political sense, because it makes the govt fear millions of angry Remainers after a no deal Brexit
while also saying that millions would still support revoking^

Absolutely

An appeal against unilateral A50 revocation looks like it is intended to seal our fate and block Brexit.

But if its successful would protect May herself ironically.

If its unsuccessful May is seen to have tried to have stopped it. Which may again protect her a little.

But she also can later claim circumstances have changed.

The phrasing is curious in the sun piece. "Save Brexit". That suggests a greater possibility to stop it than has been said before.

That court case is HUGE.

We can expect comments about traitors a lot if the governments appeal fails.

We are still in line with Donald Tusk saying its either Hard Brexit or No Brexit and what the former Polish finance minister said about what was the politically easiest route.

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 08:08

Oh and the withdrawal agreement latest was 90%.

Shame the Withdrawal Agreement is a digital not analogue thing though.

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 08:19

standup4brexit.com/
Campaign to force Brexit through.

41 MPs (listed) who have signed up to block the Withdrawal Agreement

Fourty one

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 08:20

That sounds a lot like seven short of a no confidence vote.

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Mistigri · 22/10/2018 08:27

"Revoke is more feasible technically than a 2nd ref, because it would be so quick
and also because neither of the two options are really possible except in response to an economic emergency, which would arrive - if at all - too late for a ref, which takes a minimum of 22 weeks, iirc, to go through all the legal hoops"

I'm getting gradually gloomier about a crisis happening in time for the government or parliament to respond. The markets seem stuck in an "it'll be alright on the night attitude" and I'm not even sure that a major company pulling out would be enough; this weekend the spin has been "but the auto industry isn't that important to the UK economy".

Still think there will be a deal, but getting increasing anxious about parliament looking over the edge and deciding to jump anyway.

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 08:27

Laura Kuennsberg @bbclaurak
1. May on her feet in Commons later - huge amount of unhappiness around after Cabinet conference calls over the weekend - doesn't seem to be a policy that can get past Cabinet let alone backbenches

2. Grayling just said there isn't a policy but govt 'looking at options'

[RTB when it's Grayling saying that, you know May has run out of them]

3. Well that's one way of putting it - this is a v unpredictable week - some MP s saying no confidence vote looking inevitable, others saying no way, one cabinet minister says 'calmer voices will prevail', one MP says 'a lot of people are all fart and no sh*t' -ouch - let's see

4. May in Commons today, 1922 backbench committee later in week, vote in Commons on ERG amendments on Northern Ireland on Weds and of course, officials still trying to work out way forward for the deal in the background

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DGRossetti · 22/10/2018 09:32

Excl: Theresa May doubles down - vows she’ll plough on with her Brexit plan, whatever the consequences for her Premiership: “I don’t think about what the implications are for me”.

The exact same could have been said of the pilots of the 9/11 planes. They too ploughed on without a care for their own position.

Is it just me, or a Prime Minister that doesn't care about themselves is more dangerous than one who does ?

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 09:53

This mornings row is over the whodunnit

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Yvette Cooper calls for Tory MP who said Theresa May should be “knifed” to be unmasked: “This is vile and dehumining language towards a woman MP and Prime Minister and no one should be subject to such violent language. It’s about time we know who that Conservative MP is.”

Anna Soubry MP@ anna_soubry
I am appalled that my colleague #MarkFrancoisMP failed unequivocally to condemn the disgraceful and dangerous language used by a fellow Conservative MP against the PM @BBCr4today he even tried to excuse it. Shameful.

Tim Shipman @ shippersunbound
The coverage at the weekend was robust because criticism of the PM was different in tone and volume from a number of MPs, some of them women.

Since some people seem to have the wrong end of the stick: none of the off the record quotes in my paper was from Andrew Bridgen.

Tbh, there are bigger fish to fry this week.

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 09:57

George Cazenove @ kingofsw6
I do wonder sometimes if your need to produce a sensational splash every Sunday is actually doing you, this country, politics etc any good. I know you're a conduit but still....

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
I try to use my judgement about where the balance of the story lies. The vituperation against the PM last week was off the charts compared with recent weeks. Worst since Grenfell. Had to reflect that

George Cazenove @ kingofsw6
And I have to ask....do you think she'll be PM next Sunday?

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
History would suggest yes but these are strange times

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 10:05

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Of the 8 stories I wrote for today’s paper, the one I hope gets attention is this.

Serving Commons staff have waived anonymity to warn that bullying isn’t going to go away if MPs continue to oversee complaints

Decision by Commons commission due Wed

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/876642bc-d571-11e8-926d-96790161a92a
Commons staff go public to end bullying culture

Chris Cook @xtophercook
This is jaw-dropping. Serving clerks are taking a risk by going public in a newspaper to criticise their own employer’s failure to act on bullying and harassment

This is the equivalent of senior civil servants sounding a public warning to the cabinet secretary. If this goes to a strike (esp if it takes the Hansard reporters) it’s hard to see how much the Commons could do

It’s also impressive how much solidarity there is among clerks, especially for their departed colleagues whose careers were ended by bullies and harassers

Also real worry about succession. Sir David Natzler, chief clerk, is widely expected to stay in post until after Easter. If they appoint any of his immediate underlings to replace him, there will be men in wigs suspended from lamp posts on Whitehall.

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Here is the letter and complete signatory list of the letter of current and former staff with involvement in harrassment.

👀Imagine putting your name to this about the company you work for👀

Times story: Commons staff go public to end bullying culture

Hannah White @ DrHannahWhite
Full text of the letter sent by current and former House of Commons staff calling on the House of Commons Commission to allow historic allegations of bullying to be investigated and remove MP involvement in the process of determining complaints, as recommended by Dame Laura Cox

Woahhhhhhh!

Talk of a possibility of a Commons strike?!

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 10:13

news.sky.com/story/sky-views-its-not-enough-to-say-what-may-happen-after-brexit-11532116
Sky Views: Guess who's least prepared for No Deal Brexit?

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Hasenstein · 22/10/2018 10:20

At least Sky News is reporting the issue. On the BBC news website, there's not a single Brexit-related topic among their major stories. It's as if there's nothing to report.

But at least we know who'll be hosting Top Gear, so that's alright.

woman11017 · 22/10/2018 10:22

@anneapplebaum
Bad showing for Poland's far-right ruling party in local elections. They lost most major cities. If these results held up in a parliamentary election, they would also now lose to the former PSL-PO coalition

Smile
ShinyElena · 22/10/2018 10:24

Guido is classy as ever

Westministenders: A Change of Mood